Kensuke Goto

Analysis of Effects of Meteorological Factors on Dengue Incidence in Sri Lanka Using Time Series Data

In tropical and subtropical regions of eastern and South-eastern Asia, dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) outbreaks occur frequently. Previous studies indicate an association between meteorological variables and dengue incidence using time series analyses. The impacts of meteorological changes can affect dengue outbreak. However, difficulties in collecting detailed time series data in developing countries have led to common use of monthly data in most previous studies. In addition, time series analyses are often limited to one area because of the difficulty in collecting meteorological and dengue incidence data in multiple areas. To gain better understanding, we examined the effects of meteorological factors on dengue incidence in three geographically distinct areas (Ratnapura, Colombo, and Anuradhapura) of Sri Lanka by time series analysis of weekly data. The weekly average maximum temperature and total rainfall and the total number of dengue cases from 2005 to 2011 (7 years) were used as time series data in this study. Subsequently, time series analyses were performed on the basis of ordinary least squares regression analysis followed by the vector autoregressive model (VAR). In conclusion, weekly average maximum temperatures and the weekly total rainfall did not significantly affect dengue incidence in three geographically different areas of Sri Lanka. However, the weekly total rainfall slightly influenced dengue incidence in the cities of Colombo and Anuradhapura.

Topographic models for predicting malaria vector breeding habitats: potential tools for vector control managers

BackgroundIdentification of malaria vector breeding sites can enhance control activities. Although associations between malaria vector breeding sites and topography are well recognized, practical models that predict breeding sites from topographic information are lacking. We used topographic variables derived from remotely sensed Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) to model the breeding sites of malaria vectors. We further compared the predictive strength of two different DEMs and evaluated the predictability of various habitat types inhabited by Anopheles larvae.MethodsUsing GIS techniques, topographic variables were extracted from two DEMs: 1) Shuttle Radar Topography Mission 3 (SRTM3, 90-m resolution) and 2) the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission Reflection Radiometer Global DEM (ASTER, 30-m resolution). We used data on breeding sites from an extensive field survey conducted on an island in western Kenya in 2006. Topographic variables were extracted for 826 breeding sites and for 4520 negative points that were randomly assigned. Logistic regression modelling was applied to characterize topographic features of the malaria vector breeding sites and predict their locations. Model accuracy was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC).ResultsAll topographic variables derived from both DEMs were significantly correlated with breeding habitats except for the aspect of SRTM. The magnitude and direction of correlation for each variable were similar in the two DEMs. Multivariate models for SRTM and ASTER showed similar levels of fit indicated by Akaike information criterion (3959.3 and 3972.7, respectively), though the former was slightly better than the latter. The accuracy of prediction indicated by AUC was also similar in SRTM (0.758) and ASTER (0.755) in the training site. In the testing site, both SRTM and ASTER models showed higher AUC in the testing sites than in the training site (0.829 and 0.799, respectively). The predictability of habitat types varied. Drains, foot-prints, puddles and swamp habitat types were most predictable.ConclusionsBoth SRTM and ASTER models had similar predictive potentials, which were sufficiently accurate to predict vector habitats. The free availability of these DEMs suggests that topographic predictive models could be widely used by vector control managers in Africa to complement malaria control strategies.

Health and Demographic Surveillance System in the Western and Coastal Areas of Kenya: An Infrastructure for Epidemiologic Studies in Africa

Background The Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) is a longitudinal data collection process that systematically and continuously monitors population dynamics for a specified population in a geographically defined area that lacks an effective system for registering demographic information and vital events. Methods HDSS programs have been run in 2 regions in Kenya: in Mbita district in Nyanza province and Kwale district in Coast Province. The 2 areas have different disease burdens and cultures. Vital events were obtained by using personal digital assistants and global positioning system devices. Additional health-related surveys have been conducted bimonthly using various PDA-assisted survey software. Results The Mbita HDSS covers 55 929 individuals, and the Kwale HDSS covers 42 585 individuals. In the Mbita HDSS, the life expectancy was 61.0 years for females and 57.5 years for males. Under-5 mortality was 91.5 per 1000 live births, and infant mortality was 47.0 per 1000 live births. The total fertility rate was 3.7 per woman. Data from the Kwale HDSS were not available because it has been running for less than 1 year at the time of this report. Conclusions Our HDSS programs are based on a computer-assisted survey system that provides a rapid and flexible data collection platform in areas that lack an effective basic resident registration system. Although the HDSS areas are not representative of the entire country, they provide a base for several epidemiologic and social study programs, and for practical community support programs that seek to improve the health of the people in these areas.

Cathepsin L is required for ecotropic murine leukemia virus infection in NIH3T3 cells

Abstract Recently it has been reported that a cathepsin B inhibitor, CA-074Me, attenuates ecotropic murine leukemia virus (Eco-MLV) infection in NIH3T3 cells, suggesting that cathepsin B is required for the Eco-MLV infection. However, cathepsin B activity was negative or extremely low in NIH3T3 cells. How did CA-074Me attenuate the Eco-MLV infection? The CA-074Me treatment of NIH3T3 cells inhibited cathepsin L activity, and a cathepsin L specific inhibitor, CLIK148, attenuated the Eco-MLV vector infection. These results indicate that the suppression of cathepsin L activity by CA-074Me induces the inhibition of Eco-MLV infection, suggesting that cathepsin L is required for the Eco-MLV infection in NIH3T3 cells. The CA-074Me treatment inhibited the Eco-MLV infection in human cells expressing the exogenous mouse ecotropic receptor and endogenous cathepsins B and L, but the CLIK148 treatment did not, showing that only the cathepsin L suppression by CLIK148 is not enough to prevent the Eco-MLV infection in cells expressing both of cathepsins B and L, and CA-074Me inhibits the Eco-MLV infection by suppressing both of cathepsins B and L. These results suggest that either cathepsin B or L is sufficient for the Eco-MLV infection.

Effect of exercise on bone status and body composition in Japanese students

PURPOSE We evaluated the effect of exercise on stiffness and fat-free mass (FFM), which consists of bone and muscle, in Japanese students. It is uncertain whether exercise or sports activities will help to accumulate overall peak bone mass in Japanese adolescents. METHODS A total of 710 Japanese students (age = 15-20 yr) were enrolled. Students who regularly engage in physical exercise were assigned to an exercise group; other students were assigned to a nonexercise group. Body composition, including height, weight, waist circumference, hip circumference, body mass index, and waist-to-hip ratio, were measured and calculated. Lung volume, body volume, and body fat percentage were evaluated by air displacement plethysmography. Fat mass and FFM were derived from body fat percentage and body weight. Bone status, such as speed of sounds, broadband ultrasound attenuation, and stiffness, which is defined as bone density, was assessed by quantitative ultrasound. RESULTS In both sexes, height, weight, body mass index, circumferences, waist-to-hip ratio, lung volume, and body volume between the exercise and nonexercise groups did not show any significant differences. FFM, speed of sounds, broadband ultrasound attenuation, and stiffness in the exercise group were statistically higher than those in the nonexercise group (P < 0.05). Although stiffness positively correlated with age with the exception of the nonexercise group in females (P < 0.01), stiffness correlated with FFM in the exercise and nonexercise groups in both sexes (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS Ours is the first analysis of a trend in peak bone mass, including the effect of exercise in Japanese students. For Japanese pubertal females who did not have a history of regular exercise, stiffness slowly decreased with age. Exercise habits in early childhood are important in the relationship between stiffness and FFM.

A proposed method for the evaluation of body fat in Japanese adults that predicts obesity

The present study was designed to develop a simple predictive equation for the percent body fat (%BF) in Japanese adults based on variables collected during health examinations. We hypothesized that a benchmark for defining metabolic syndrome and obesity could be based on %BF, which was measured by underwater weighing (UW) as a gold standard for body composition assessment. Thus, we developed a predictive equation for %BF derived from UW that may contribute to the assessment of obesity status, characterized by an excess accumulation of visceral or subcutaneous fat. The subjects were 810 Japanese participants (283 men, 527 women, ages 18-59 years). Anthropometric variables, including height, weight, 7 circumferences, and 8 skinfold thicknesses, were measured. The developed predictive equation was as follows: %BF = 10.558 × sex (1 for men; 2 for women) + 0.069 × age + 0.667 × body mass index + 0.314 × abdominal circumference - 35.881.The coefficient of determination (r(2)) was 0.69. The predicted %BF derived from this equation was highly correlated with UW-measured values and did not show underestimation or overestimation in either sex. These data suggested that this predictive equation for %BF can be used for all Japanese adults and does not require the use of medical equipment and special measurement techniques. By combining the equation for %BF developed in this study with a %BF cutoff value of metabolic syndrome and obesity (>25.0% in men and >30.0% in women), all Japanese adults can easily and conveniently assess obesity status.