Kent R. Grote

Examining the Halo Effect in Lotto Games

The ‘Halo Effect’ occurs when lotto ticket sales are unexpectedly high following a large jackpot. An examination of the Powerball lottery finds evidence that the halo effect exists and that it is the result of bettors exchanging prize winnings for new tickets.

Jacking Up the Jackpot: Are Lotto Consumers Fooled by Annuity Payments?

State lotteries typically pay lotto jackpot winners with annuity payments over a 20- to 30-year period. Because lottery associations advertise the jackpot to be the nominal sum of these payments, lottery associations can increase the size of the advertised jackpot simply by increasing the annuity length. Because ticket sales increase with the size of the advertised jackpot, longer annuity lengths should lead to higher ticket sales. The results suggest that lotto players are not fooled by this sleight of hand so that lottery associations cannot increase revenues by artificially inflating the advertised jackpot in this manner.

U.S. Lotto Markets

Lotteries as sources of public funding are of particular interest because they combine elements of both public finance and gambling in an often controversial mix. Proponents of lotteries point to the popularity of such games and justify their use because of the voluntary nature of participation rather than the reliance on compulsory taxation. Whether lotteries are efficient or not can have the usual concerns related to public finance and providing support for public spending, but there are also concerns about the efficiency of the market for the lottery products as well, especially if the voluntary participants are not behaving rationally. These concerns can be addressed through an examination of the U.S. experience with lotteries as sources of government revenues. State lotteries in the U.S. are compared to those in Europe to provide context on the use of such funding and the diversity of options available to public officials. While the efficiency of lotteries in raising funds for public programs can be addressed in a number of ways, one method is to consider whether the funds that are raised are supplementing other sources of funding or substituting for them. If lottery profits are “fungible” or substituting for other sources that would have been used in the absence of such profits, then the issues of equity and efficiency of lotteries relative to other sources are certainly heightened. The literature suggests that some degree of fungibility does exist, bringing these very concerns into question. Whether the lottery markets are efficient can be addressed, in part, by examining the rationality of its participants. This can be done by considering how consumers participate in the market, how they respond to changing prices (or effective prices in the case of lotteries), and whether the market ever provides its participants with a “fair bet,” a gamble in which there is a positive expected value from participating. While empirical studies provide somewhat mixed results, there are indications that consumers of lottery products are relatively rational and that lottery markets seldom provide “fair bets,” both indicators of efficient markets.

Should Gambling Markets be Privatized? An Examination of State Lotteries in the United States

State lotteries currently operate in 43 states across the US. Recently, three states have privatized their lottery operations, handing over the management of their lotteries to private companies in hopes of generating greater revenues for the state governments. Questions arise regarding the economic rationale for this decision and an economic model is presented to determine whether one state, Illinois, has been successful at generating more state transfer revenues as a result of privatization in its first year of results. The issue of lottery privatization is also examined in the larger context of overall growth in the gambling industry in the United States with particular attention paid to sports gambling.