Keshab Shrestha

Futures Hedge Ratios: A Review

Abstract This paper presents a review of different theoretical approaches to the optimal futures hedge ratios. These approaches are based on minimum variance, mean-variance, expected utility, mean extended-Gini coefficient, as well as semivariance. Various ways of estimating these hedge ratios are also discussed, ranging from simple ordinary least squares to complicated heteroscedastic cointegration methods. Under martingale and joint-normality conditions, different hedge ratios are the same as the minimum variance hedge ratio. Otherwise, the optimal hedge ratios based on the different approaches are different and there is no single optimal hedge ratio that is distinctly superior to the remaining ones.

Insider Trading and Earnings Management

This paper analyzes the relationship between earnings management and insider trading, specifically investigating whether discretionary accruals are related to insider trading and valuation. We find strong evidence of insiders managing earnings downward when buying and managing earnings upward when selling. On the marginal basis, value (high book-to-market value) firms manage their earnings upward compared to growth (low book-to-market value) firms, consistent with a signaling hypothesis. However, the opposite is true on the average basis, consistent with an opportunistic hypothesis. Copyright (c) 2008 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Analysis of the long-term relationship between macro-economic variables and the Chinese stock market using heteroscedastic cointegration

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the Chinese stock market indices and a set of macro-economic variables, i.e. money supply, industrial production, inflation, exchange rate and interest rates. Design/methodology/approach - The aims of this paper are addressed using heteroscedastic cointegration analysis. Findings - Results show that the cointegrating relationship does exist between stock prices and the macro-economic variables in the highly speculative Chinese stock market. Detailed analysis shows stock market performance is positively related to that of macro-economy in the long term. Research limitations/implications - The results imply that in the long run, investors can benefit in terms of better returns and portfolio diversification as the Chinese economy is expected to continue to perform strongly. Originality/value - The main contributions of this paper are two-fold: first, this is the first paper to examine the long-term relationship between the stock market indices and macro-economic variables in China, one of largest economies in the world. Second, heteroscedastic cointegration analysis is used and hence this paper controls for time-varying volatility.

Estimating optimal hedge ratio: a multivariate skew-normal distribution approach

In this article, we adopt Multivariate Skew-Normal (MSKN) distributions to test for the joint normality of spot and futures returns and to estimate optimal hedge ratios. Using daily data for 22 different commodities, we reject the joint normality hypothesis in favour of Skew-Normal (SKN) distributions for all commodities at less than 1% significance level. In the out-of-sample performance comparison, the MSKN hedge ratio is found to outperform the conventional Minimum Variance (MV) hedge ratio for about half of the 22 commodities considered. On the other hand, the Lower Partial Moment (LPM) hedge ratio based on the MSKN dominates the LPM hedge ratio based on the multivariate normal distribution for almost all commodities in the out-of-sample comparison.

Overvalued Equity and the Accruals Anomaly: Evidence from Insider Trades

This paper examines the accruals anomaly in an agency context where managers of overvalued firms have incentives to sustain overvaluation. We hypothesize that mangers anticipate the ultimate share price reversals and use high accruals to temporarily sustain overvaluation, while at the same time sell their shares. There is no incentive to deflate earnings of undervalued firms, leading to the prediction of an asymmetric relationship between trading and accruals. Our results support an agency explanation. Quadratic and binary regressions confirm that relationship between trades and accruals is concentrated on the selling side. The relationship between accruals and trading is only significant within the overvalued, low book-to-market (BM) firms. There is also evidence that low BM firms manage their earnings upward compared to high BM firms.

Corporate Governance and the Information Content of Earnings Announcements: A Cross-Country Analysis

Using firm-level data from 23 developed markets, we document a positive association between overall firm-level governance quality and the informativeness of earnings announcements measured by abnormal stock return variance. This finding is robust after controlling for the potential endogeneity of firm-level corporate governance. Further analyses reveal that firms with strong governance show little evidence of earnings management, appoint Big 4 auditing firms, and attract analyst following, implying a positive link between strong corporate governance and the information quality of earnings announcements. Finally, there is some evidence that the relation between firm-level governance and market reactions around the announcements exists only in countries characterized by a transparent information environment and strong legal investor protection.

Validity of the short‐ and long‐run Fisher relationships: an empirical analysis

Outlines the Fisher hypothesis, cites previous relevant research and develops mathematical models for long‐run and short‐run Fisher relationships. Applies them to the UK, USA, Canada and Japan, using 1978‐1997 monthly data and Eurocurrency interest rates to explore the relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation rates. Finds a significant positive relationship for all four currencies in the long run; and for the UK and Japan but not for Canada in the short run, with significance only at the 10 per cent level for the USA.

Relationship between Expected Treasury Bill and Eurodollar Interest Rates: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis

In this paper, we extend Booth and Tses (BT)1995 analysis of fractional cointegration between theexpected Eurodollar and Treasury bill interest ratesimplied by their respective futures contracts. Thedefinition of fractional cointegration suggested byCheung and Lai (1993) and used by BT is refined sothat it requires the cointegrating relationship to bestationary as well as mean-reverting. In addition tothe Geweke and Porter-Hudak method used by BT, a moreefficient Maximum Likelihood (ML) method is used toestimate the cointegrating relationship. The LM (Engle(1982)) test indicates the possible existence of aheteroscedastic cointegrating relationship. Therefore,we use heteroscedastic models (GARCH and ExponentialGARCH) to represent the cointegrating regressioninstead of the simple homoscedastic model used by BT.The empirical evidence cannot reject the nullhypothesis of a stationary fractional cointegrationrelationship between the Eurodollar and Treasury billinterest rates.

Equality of Real Returns on Canadian and US Treasury Bills: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis

This paper empirically analyzes the long memory relationship between the real returns on Canadian and US Treasury bills. A fractional cointegration approach, instead of conventional integer integration (unit root) and cointegration approaches, is used in analyzing the relationship. The advantage of fractionally integrated models is that they allow a smooth transition from a stationary process to a unit-root process. Furthermore, such models embody unit-root models as a special case. The models are therefore more general and appropriate for empirical analysis. By using fractionally integrated models, one also resolves the problems of an inconsistency in test results associated with using unit root and cointegration approaches. Briefly, it is found that the real returns on Canadian and US Treasury bills are fractionally integrated and the order of integration is significantly less than unity. Furthermore, the difference between the real returns follows a stationary process. This indicates that the Canadian and the US capital markets as well as product markets are well integrated. Furthermore, the domestic monetary authorities will not be able to influence the domestic real interest rate independent of the other market in the long-run.

THE EFFECTS OF PRICE DYNAMICS ON OPTIMAL FUTURES HEDGING

In this paper, we analytically derive the adjustments needed for the conventional hedge ratio due to the presence of short-run and long-run dynamics. We also analytically show the performance impact of these dynamics. We apply the method discussed in the paper to eight different stock index futures contracts from seven different countries. It is found that the short-run dynamics has no effect whereas the long-run dynamics may produce significant effects on the optimal hedge ratio and the hedging performance.