Keshavan Nair

Nuclear siting using decision analysis

Abstract This study identifies suitable additional future sites for nuclear power generating facilities of 3000 MW capacity in the state of Washington and parts of Oregon and Idaho. A series of screening models was used to identify nine specific sites for evaluation by decision analysis. Six major objectives concerning health and safety, environmental effects, socioeconomic impacts, and financial considerations were formally employed over the six attributes measuring the degree to which the objectives were met. Possible impacts at each site were expertly assessed for each attribute. Evaluation and sensitivity analyses led to the recommendation that site-specific studies should be conducted at three sites to select one for proceeding to the formal licensing process.

A risk analysis of an LNG terminal

The problem of evaluating the public risk associated with construction and operation of the proposed La Salle Terminal facility to import LNG and distribute to consumers is studied in detail. As spillage and ignition of LNG may cause severe public fatalities, it becomes necessary to determine the feasibility of such a project. The risk analysis shows that the risk levels to the public are less than those published in the literature as acceptable to society. The El Paso LNG Company and its subsidiaries plan to build and operate a marine terminal and LNG vaporization facility named La Salle Terminal, in Matagorda Bay, Texas. The La Salle Terminal will receive about 143 liquified natural gas (LNG) carriers per year from Algeria. From the carriers, LNG will be transferred to LNG storage tanks and from there it will be revaporized and distributed via high pressure intra-state pipelines. The paper aims at estimation and evaluation of the risk to the public from the operation of such a facility and to determine the feasibility of the project site. For this purpose, the model was divided into three components: 1. Development of accident scenarios and their associated probabilities; 2. Quantification of public risk; 3. Evaluation of public risk.

Generating Future Scenarios—Their Use in Strategic Planning

In this article a practical approach to incorporate the information about the future states of the world in evaluating strategic plans is suggested. It is described how managers could formally evaluate the resilience of alternative plans using this approach. Some suggestions on the presentation of information that facilitates managerial evaluation are provided.

Setting goals in a professional service firm

Given the complex structure and rapid rate of change of todays society, it is critically important that a professional service firm properly set and periodically monitor its goals. This article describes how one consultant organization has formalized this process. The experience has led to important modifications of their goals. Perhaps a greater benefit is that the process of formalization has been a substantial aid in identifying and sensitizing individuals to crucial issues, in generating and evaluating alternatives, in isolating and resolving conflicts of judgement and priorities, and in communicating among members of the management of the firm concerned.