Kevin D. Shield

Global burden of alcoholic liver diseases

Liver diseases contribute markedly to the global burden of mortality and disease. This paper provides an overview from a global perspective of the contribution of alcohol to liver diseases. The Global Burden of Disease study methodology was used to estimate the burden of alcohol-attributable liver cirrhosis and alcohol-attributable liver cancer in 2010 as measured by deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). This methodology estimates attributable fractions based on alcohol exposure distribution and relative risks associated with different levels of drinking. Globally, in 2010, alcohol-attributable liver cirrhosis was responsible for 493,300 deaths (156,900 female deaths and 336,400 male deaths) and 14,544,000 DALYs (4,112,000 DALYs for women and 10,432,000 DALYs for men), representing 0.9% (0.7% for women and 1.2% for men) of all global deaths and 0.6% (0.4% for women and 0.8% for men) of all global DALYs, and 47.9% of all liver cirrhosis deaths (46.5% for women and 48.5% for men) and 46.9% of all liver cirrhosis DALYs (44.5% for women and 47.9% for men). Alcohol-attributable liver cancer was responsible for 80,600 deaths (14,800 female deaths and 65,900 male deaths) and 2,142,000 DALYs (335,000 DALYs for women and 1,807,000 DALYs for men). The burden of alcohol-attributable liver cirrhosis and liver cancer is high and entirely preventable. Interventions to reduce alcohol consumption are recommended as a population health priority and may range from taxation increases for alcoholic beverages to increases in screening and treatment rates for alcohol use disorders.

Alcohol consumption and the intention to engage in unprotected sex: systematic review and meta-analysis of experimental studies

AIMS To review and analyse in experimentally controlled studies the impact of alcohol consumption on intentions to engage in unprotected sex. To draw conclusions with respect to the question of whether alcohol has an independent effect on the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). METHODS A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled studies examined the association between blood alcohol content (BAC) and self-perceived likelihood of using a condom during intercourse. The systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted according to internationally standardized protocols (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses: PRISMA). The meta-analysis included an estimate of the dose-response effect, tests for publication bias and sensitivity analyses. RESULTS Of the 12 studies included in the quantitative synthesis, our pooled analysis indicated that an increase in BAC of 0.1 mg/ml resulted in an increase of 5.0% (95% CI: 2.8-7.1%) in the indicated likelihood (indicated by a Likert scale) of engaging in unprotected sex. After adjusting for potential publication bias, this estimate dropped to 2.9% (95% CI: 2.0-3.9%). Thus, the larger the alcohol intake and the subsequent level of BAC, the higher the intentions to engage in unsafe sex. The main results were homogeneous, persisted in sensitivity analyses and after correction for publication bias. CONCLUSIONS Alcohol use is an independent risk factor for intentions to engage in unprotected sex, and as risky sex intentions have been shown to be linked to actual risk behavior, the role of alcohol consumption in the transmission of HIV and other STIs may be of public health importance.

Contribution of six risk factors to achieving the 25×25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study

BACKGROUND Countries have agreed to reduce premature mortality (defined as the probability of dying between the ages of 30 years and 70 years) from four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs)--cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, cancers, and diabetes--by 25% from 2010 levels by 2025 (referred to as 25×25 target). Targets for selected NCD risk factors have also been agreed on. We estimated the contribution of achieving six risk factor targets towards meeting the 25×25 mortality target. METHODS We estimated the impact of achieving the targets for six risk factors (tobacco and alcohol use, salt intake, obesity, and raised blood pressure and glucose) on NCD mortality between 2010 and 2025. Our methods accounted for multi-causality of NCDs and for the fact that when risk factor exposure increases or decreases, the harmful or beneficial effects on NCDs accumulate gradually. We used data for risk factor and mortality trends from systematic analyses of available country data. Relative risks for the effects of individual and multiple risks, and for change in risk after decreases or increases in exposure, were from re-analyses and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies. FINDINGS If risk factor targets are achieved, the probability of dying from the four main NCDs between the ages of 30 years and 70 years will decrease by 22% in men and by 19% in women between 2010 and 2025, compared with a decrease of 11% in men and 10% in women under the so-called business-as-usual trends (ie, projections based on current trends with no additional action). Achieving the risk factor targets will delay or prevent more than 37 million deaths (16 million in people aged 30-69 years and 21 million in people aged 70 years or older) from the main NCDs over these 15 years compared with a situation of rising or stagnating risk factor trends. Most of the benefits of achieving the risk factor targets, including 31 million of the delayed or prevented deaths, will be in low-income and middle-income countries, and will help to reduce the global inequality in premature NCD mortality. A more ambitious target on tobacco use (a 50% reduction) will almost reach the target in men (>24% reduction in the probability of death), and enhance the benefits to a 20% reduction in women. INTERPRETATION If the agreed risk factor targets are met, premature mortality from the four main NCDs will decrease to levels that are close to the 25×25 target, with most of these benefits seen in low-income and middle-income countries. On the basis of mortality benefits and feasibility, a more ambitious target than currently agreed should be adopted for tobacco use. FUNDING UK MRC.

Modeling the impact of alcohol dependence on mortality burden and the effect of available treatment interventions in the European Union

Alcohol consumption is a major risk factor for the burden of disease, and Alcohol Dependence (AD) is the most important disorder attributable to this behavior. The objective of this study was to quantify mortality associated with AD and the potential impact of treatment. For the EU countries, for the age group 15-64 years, mortality attributable to alcohol consumption in general, to heavy drinking, and to AD were estimated based on the latest data on exposure and mortality. Potential effects of AD treatment were modeled based on Cochrane and other systematic reviews of the effectiveness of the best known and most effective interventions. In the EU 88.9% of men and 82.1% of women aged 15-64 years were current drinkers; and 15.3% of men and 3.4% of women in this age group were heavy drinkers. AD affected 5.4% of men and 1.5% of women. The net burden caused by alcohol consumption was 1 in 7 deaths in men and 1 in 13 deaths in women. The majority of this burden was due to heavy drinking (77%), and 71% of this burden was due to AD. Increasing treatment coverage for the most effective treatments to 40% of all people with AD was estimated to reduce alcohol-attributable mortality by 13% for men and 9% for women (annually 10,000 male and 1700 female deaths avoided). Increasing treatment rates for AD was identified as an important issue for future public health strategies to reduce alcohol-attributable harm and to complement the current focus of alcohol policy.

Alcohol-attributable cancer deaths and years of potential life lost in the United States.

OBJECTIVES Our goal was to provide current estimates of alcohol-attributable cancer mortality and years of potential life lost (YPLL) in the United States. METHODS We used 2 methods to calculate population-attributable fractions. We based relative risks on meta-analyses published since 2000, and adult alcohol consumption on data from the 2009 Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System, 2009 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, and 2009-2010 National Alcohol Survey. RESULTS Alcohol consumption resulted in an estimated 18,200 to 21,300 cancer deaths, or 3.2% to 3.7% of all US cancer deaths. The majority of alcohol-attributable female cancer deaths were from breast cancer (56% to 66%), whereas upper airway and esophageal cancer deaths were more common among men (53% to 71%). Alcohol-attributable cancers resulted in 17.0 to 19.1 YPLL for each death. Daily consumption of up to 20 grams of alcohol (≤ 1.5 drinks) accounted for 26% to 35% of alcohol-attributable cancer deaths. CONCLUSIONS Alcohol remains a major contributor to cancer mortality and YPLL. Higher consumption increases risk but there is no safe threshold for alcohol and cancer risk. Reducing alcohol consumption is an important and underemphasized cancer prevention strategy.

Global alcohol exposure estimates by country, territory and region for 2005—a contribution to the Comparative Risk Assessment for the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study

AIMS This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of life-time abstainers, former drinkers and current drinkers, adult per-capita consumption of alcohol and pattern of drinking scores, by country and Global Burden of Disease region for 2005, and to forecast these indicators for 2010. DESIGN Statistical modelling based on survey data and routine statistics. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS A total of 241 countries and territories. MEASUREMENTS Per-capita consumption data were obtained with the help of the World Health Organizations Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Drinking status data were obtained from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study, the STEPwise approach to Surveillance study, the World Health Survey/Multi-Country Study and other surveys. Consumption and drinking status data were triangulated to estimate alcohol consumption across multiple categories. FINDINGS In 2005 adult per-capita annual consumption of alcohol was 6.1 litres, with 1.7 litres stemming from unrecorded consumption; 17.1 litres of alcohol were consumed per drinker, 45.8% of all adults were life-time abstainers, 13.6% were former drinkers and 40.6% were current drinkers. Life-time abstention was most prevalent in North Africa/Middle East and South Asia. Eastern Europe and Southern sub-Saharan Africa had the most detrimental pattern of drinking scores, while drinkers in Europe (Eastern and Central) and sub-Saharan Africa (Southern and West) consumed the most alcohol. CONCLUSIONS Just over 40% of the worlds adult population consumes alcohol and the average consumption per drinker is 17.1 litres per year. However, the prevalence of abstention, level of alcohol consumption and patterns of drinking vary widely across regions of the world.

A systematic review of the epidemiology of unrecorded alcohol consumption and the chemical composition of unrecorded alcohol

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Unrecorded alcohol constitutes about 30% of all alcohol consumed globally. The aims of this systematic review were to determine the epidemiology (occurrence, types, prevalence) of unrecorded alcohol consumption in different countries/regions, analyse the chemical composition of unrecorded alcohol and examine health outcomes caused by the consumption of unrecorded alcohol, based on either epidemiology or toxicology. METHODS A systematic search for, and qualitative analysis of, papers with empirical results on the different categories of unrecorded alcohol, based on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. RESULTS Unrecorded alcohol was widespread in all regions of the world. Artisanal fermented beverages and spirits were the most common categories of unrecorded alcohol globally, and were available on all continents. In India, industrially produced spirits (country spirits) were most prevalent. In Russia and countries of the former Soviet Union, surrogate alcohols complemented artisanal spirits. Cross-border shopping was the most prevalent method of obtaining unrecorded alcohol in parts of Europe. Ethanol was the most harmful ingredient of unrecorded alcohol, and health consequences due to other ingredients found in unrecorded alcohol were scarce. However, as unrecorded alcohol is usually the least expensive form of alcohol available in many countries, it may contribute to higher rates of chronic and irregular heavy drinking. CONCLUSIONS Very large amounts of alcohol are produced globally that go unrecorded. The primary harm from this kind of alcohol arises from the fact that it is typically much cheaper than licit alcohol.

Comorbidity of fetal alcohol spectrum disorder: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND Fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD) is related to many comorbidities because of the permanent effects of prenatal alcohol exposure on the fetus. We aimed to identify the comorbid conditions that co-occur in individuals with FASD and estimate the pooled prevalence of comorbid conditions occurring in individuals with fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS). METHODS We did a systematic literature search of studies reporting on the comorbidity and cause of death in individuals with FASD using multiple electronic bibliographic databases, searching for studies published up to July, 2012. We included original research published in a peer-reviewed journal in the English language. We used the following criteria for determining study quality: use of an established FASD diagnostic guideline, study setting, method of data collection, and sample size. All comorbid disease conditions were coded according to the International Classification of Diseases, tenth revision (ICD-10). To estimate the pooled prevalence of comorbid conditions found to co-occur in individuals with FAS, we did meta-analyses assuming a random-effects model. FINDINGS Of 5068 studies found, 127 met eligibility criteria for data extraction. From those studies, we identified 428 comorbid conditions co-occurring in individuals with FASD, spanning across 18 of 22 chapters of the ICD-10. The most prevalent disease conditions were within the sections of congenital malformations, deformities, and chromosomal abnormalities, and mental and behavioural disorders. 33 studies reported data for frequency in a total of 1728 participants with FAS. The five comorbid conditions with the highest pooled prevalence (between 50% and 91%) included abnormal results of function studies of peripheral nervous system and special senses, conduct disorder, receptive language disorder, chronic serous otitis media, and expressive language disorder. INTERPRETATION The high prevalence of comorbid conditions in individuals with FASD highlights the importance of assessing prenatal alcohol exposure as a substantial clinical risk factor for comorbidity. The harmful effects of alcohol on a developing fetus represent many cases of preventable disability, and thus, alcohol use during pregnancy should be recognised as a public health problem globally. FUNDING Public Health Agency of Canada.

The relationship between different dimensions of alcohol use and the burden of disease-an update.

Abstract Background and aims Alcohol use is a major contributor to injuries, mortality and the burden of disease. This review updates knowledge on risk relations between dimensions of alcohol use and health outcomes to be used in global and national Comparative Risk Assessments (CRAs). Methods Systematic review of reviews and meta‐analyses on alcohol consumption and health outcomes attributable to alcohol use. For dimensions of exposure: volume of alcohol use, blood alcohol concentration and patterns of drinking, in particular heavy drinking occasions were studied. For liver cirrhosis, quality of alcohol was additionally considered. For all outcomes (mortality and/or morbidity): cause of death and disease/injury categories based on International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes used in global CRAs; harm to others. Results In total, 255 reviews and meta‐analyses were identified. Alcohol use was found to be linked causally to many disease and injury categories, with more than 40 ICD‐10 three‐digit categories being fully attributable to alcohol. Most partially attributable disease categories showed monotonic relationships with volume of alcohol use: the more alcohol consumed, the higher the risk of disease or death. Exceptions were ischaemic diseases and diabetes, with curvilinear relationships, and with beneficial effects of light to moderate drinking in people without heavy irregular drinking occasions. Biological pathways suggest an impact of heavy drinking occasions on additional diseases; however, the lack of medical epidemiological studies measuring this dimension of alcohol use precluded an in‐depth analysis. For injuries, except suicide, blood alcohol concentration was the most important dimension of alcohol use. Alcohol use caused marked harm to others, which has not yet been researched sufficiently. Conclusions Research since 2010 confirms the importance of alcohol use as a risk factor for disease and injuries; for some health outcomes, more than one dimension of use needs to be considered. Epidemiological studies should include measurement of heavy drinking occasions in line with biological knowledge.

Burden of Disease Associated with Alcohol Use Disorders in the United States

BACKGROUND Alcohol use disorders (AUD) have long been considered to be some of the most disabling mental disorders; however, empirical data on the burden of disease associated with AUD have been sparse. The objective of this article is to quantify the burden of disease (in disability-adjusted life years [DALYs] lost), deaths, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL), and years of life lost due to disability (YLD) associated with AUD for the United States in 2005. METHODS Statistical modeling was based on epidemiological indicators derived from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. Formal consistency analyses were applied. Risk relations were taken from recent meta-analyses and the disability weights from the burden of disease study of the National Institutes of Health. Monte Carlo simulations were used to derive confidence intervals. All analyses were performed by sex and age. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken on key indicators. RESULTS In the United States in 2005, 65,000 deaths, 1,152,000 YLL, 2,443,000 YLD, and 3,595,000 DALYs were associated with AUD. For individuals 18 years of age and older, AUD were associated with 3% of all deaths (5% for men and 1% for women), and 5% of all YLL (7% for men and 2% for women). The majority of the burden of disease associated with AUD stemmed from YLD, which accounted for 68% of DALYs associated with AUD (66% for men and 74% for women). The youngest age group had the largest proportion of DALYs associated with AUD stemming from YLD. CONCLUSIONS Using data from a large representative survey (checked for consistency) and by combining these data with the best available evidence, we found that AUD were associated with a larger burden of disease than previously estimated. To reduce this disease burden, implementation of prevention interventions and expansion of treatment are necessary.