Kevin G.J. Pollock

Population-level impact and herd effects following human papillomavirus vaccination programmes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programmes were first implemented in several countries worldwide in 2007. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the population-level consequences and herd effects after female HPV vaccination programmes, to verify whether or not the high efficacy reported in randomised controlled clinical trials are materialising in real-world situations. METHODS We searched the Medline and Embase databases (between Jan 1, 2007 and Feb 28, 2014) and conference abstracts for time-trend studies that analysed changes, between the pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods, in the incidence or prevalence of at least one HPV-related endpoint: HPV infection, anogenital warts, and high-grade cervical lesions. We used random-effects models to derive pooled relative risk (RR) estimates. We stratified all analyses by age and sex. We did subgroup analyses by comparing studies according to vaccine type, vaccination coverage, and years since implementation of the vaccination programme. We assessed heterogeneity across studies using I(2) and χ(2) statistics and we did trends analysis to examine the dose-response association between HPV vaccination coverage and each study effect measure. FINDINGS We identified 20 eligible studies, which were all undertaken in nine high-income countries and represent more than 140 million person-years of follow-up. In countries with female vaccination coverage of at least 50%, HPV type 16 and 18 infections decreased significantly between the pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods by 68% (RR 0·32, 95% CI 0·19-0·52) and anogenital warts decreased significantly by 61% (0·39, 0·22-0·71) in girls 13-19 years of age. Significant reductions were also recorded in HPV types 31, 33, and 45 in this age group of girls (RR 0·72, 95% CI 0·54-0·96), which suggests cross-protection. Additionally, significant reductions in anogenital warts were also reported in boys younger than 20 years of age (0·66 [95% CI 0·47-0·91]) and in women 20-39 years of age (0·68 [95% CI 0·51-0·89]), which suggests herd effects. In countries with female vaccination coverage lower than 50%, significant reductions in HPV types 16 and 18 infection (RR 0·50, 95% CI 0·34-0·74]) and in anogenital warts (0·86 [95% CI 0·79-0·94]) occurred in girls younger than 20 years of age, with no indication of cross-protection or herd effects. INTERPRETATION Our results are promising for the long-term population-level effects of HPV vaccination programmes. However, continued monitoring is essential to identify any signals of potential waning efficacy or type-replacement. FUNDING The Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Introduction and sustained high coverage of the HPV bivalent vaccine leads to a reduction in prevalence of HPV 16/18 and closely related HPV types

Background:In 2008, a national human papillomavirus (HPV) immunisation programme began in Scotland for 12–13 year old females with a three-year catch-up campaign for those under the age of 18. Since 2008, three-dose uptake of bivalent vaccine in the routine cohort aged 12–13 has exceeded 90% annually, while in the catch-up cohort overall uptake is 66%.Methods:To monitor the impact of HPV immunisation, a programme of national surveillance was established (pre and post introduction) which included yearly sampling and HPV genotyping of women attending for cervical screening at age 20. By linking individual vaccination, screening and HPV testing records, we aim to determine the impact of the immunisation programme on circulating type-specific HPV infection particularly for four outcomes: (i) the vaccine types HPV 16 or 18 (ii) types considered to be associated with cross-protection: HPV 31, 33 or 45; (iii) all other high-risk types and (iv) any HPV.Results:From a total of 4679 samples tested, we demonstrate that three doses (n=1100) of bivalent vaccine are associated with a significant reduction in prevalence of HPV 16 and 18 from 29.8% (95% confidence interval 28.3, 31.3%) to 13.6% (95% confidence interval 11.7, 15.8%). The data also suggest cross-protection against HPV 31, 33 and 45. HPV 51 and 56 emerged as the most prevalent (10.5% and 9.6%, respectively) non-vaccine high-risk types in those vaccinated, but at lower rates than HPV 16 (25.9%) in those unvaccinated.Conclusions:This data demonstrate the positive impact of bivalent vaccination on the prevalence of HPV 16, 18, 31, 33 and 45 in the target population and is encouraging for countries which have achieved high-vaccine uptake.

Reduction of low- and high-grade cervical abnormalities associated with high uptake of the HPV bivalent vaccine in Scotland

Background:In Scotland, a national HPV immunisation programme began in 2008 for 12- to 13-year olds, with a catch-up campaign from 2008 to 2011 for those under the age of 18. To monitor the impact of HPV immunisation on cervical disease at the population level, a programme of national surveillance was established.Methods:We analysed colposcopy data from a cohort of women born between 1988 and 1992 who entered the Scottish Cervical Screening Programme (SCSP) and were aged 20–21 in 2008–2012.Results:By linking datasets from the SCSP and colposcopy services, we observed a significant reduction in diagnoses of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 1 (CIN 1; RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.87; P=0.0008), CIN 2 (RR 0.5, 95% CI 0.4 to 0.63; P<0.0001) and CIN 3 (RR 0.45, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.58; P<0.0001) for women who received three doses of vaccine compared with unvaccinated women.Conclusions:To our knowledge, this is one of the first studies to show a reduction of low- and high-grade CIN associated with high uptake of the HPV bivalent vaccine at the population level. These data are very encouraging for countries that have achieved high HPV vaccine uptake.

Human Papillomavirus Prevalence and Herd Immunity after Introduction of Vaccination Program, Scotland, 2009-2013

Prevalence was reduced, and early evidence indicates herd immunity.

Knowledge and awareness of HPV and the HPV vaccine among young women in the first routinely vaccinated cohort in England

A national school-based human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme has been available for 12-13 year old females in the UK since 2008, offering protection against HPV types 16 and 18, which are responsible for the majority of cervical cancer. Little is known about HPV knowledge in girls who have been offered the vaccine. Girls offered the school-based vaccine in the first routine cohort (n=1033) were recruited from 13 schools in London three years post-vaccination. Participants completed a questionnaire about HPV awareness, knowledge about HPV and the vaccine, and demographic characteristics including vaccine status. About a fifth of the girls reported they were unaware of the HPV infection. Among those who reported being aware of HPV (n=759) knowledge was relatively low. Approximately half of the participants knew that HPV infection causes cervical cancer, condoms can reduce the risk of transmission and that cervical screening is needed regardless of vaccination status. These results are helpful in benchmarking HPV-related knowledge in vaccinated girls and could be used in the development of appropriate educational messages to accompany the first cervical screening invitation in this cohort in the future.

Changes in the prevalence of human papillomavirus following a national bivalent human papillomavirus vaccination programme in Scotland: a 7-year cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND On Sept 1, 2008, Scotland launched routine vaccination for human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18, targeted at 12-13-year-old girls, of whom 92·4% were fully vaccinated in 2008-09. In this study, we report on vaccine effectiveness of the bivalent vaccine in these vaccinated women who attended for routine cervical screening at age 20-21 years. METHODS In this 7-year cross-sectional study (covering birth cohorts 1988-1995), we sampled approximately 1000 samples per year from those attending cervical screening at age 20-21 years and tested each for HPV. By linkage to vaccination records we ascertained prevalence by birth cohort and vaccination status. Estimates of vaccine effectiveness for HPV types 16 and 18, HPV types 31, 33, and 45, other high-risk types, and any HPV were calculated using logistic regression. FINDINGS In total, 8584 samples were HPV genotyped. Prevalence of HPV types 16 and 18 reduced substantially from 30·0% (95% CI 26·9-33·1) in the 1988 cohort to 4·5% (3·5-5·7) in the 1995 cohort, giving a vaccine effectiveness of 89·1% (85·1-92·3) for those vaccinated at age 12-13 years. All cross-protective types showed significant vaccine effectiveness (HPV type 31, 93·8% [95% CI 83·8-98·5]; HPV type 33, 79·1% [64·2-89·0]; HPV type 45, 82·6% [61·5-93·9]). Unvaccinated individuals born in 1995 had a reduced odds of HPV types 16 and 18 infection compared with those born in 1988 (adjusted odds ratio 0·13 [95% CI 0·06-0·28]) and reduced odds of HPV types 31, 33, and 45 (odds ratio 0·45 [0·23-0·89]). INTERPRETATION Bivalent vaccination has led to a startling reduction in vaccine and cross-protective HPV types 7 years after vaccination. There is also evidence of herd protection against the vaccine-specific and cross-protective types in unvaccinated individuals born in 1995. These findings should be considered in cost-effectiveness models informing vaccine choice and models to shape the future of cervical screening programmes. FUNDING Scottish Government and Chief Scientists Office.

Infection frequently triggers thrombotic microangiopathy in patients with preexisting risk factors: a single-institution experience.

Thrombotic microangiopathies are rare conditions characterized by microangiopathic hemolytic anemia, microthrombi, and multiorgan insult. The disorders, which include hemolytic uremic syndrome and thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura, are often acute and life threatening. We report a retrospective analysis of 65 patients presenting to our institution from 1997 to 2008 with all forms of thrombotic microangiopathy. Therapeutic plasma exchange was a requirement for analysis and 65 patients were referred to our institution; 66% of patients were female and median age at presentation was 52 years. Bacterial infection was the most commonly identified etiologic factor and in the multivariate model was the only significant variable associated with survival outcome (odds ratio 5.1, 95% confidence interval, 1.2–21.7). As infection can be considered a common trigger event for thrombotic microangiopathy, patients with hepatobiliary sepsis may benefit from elective cholecystectomy. We conclude that bacterial infection frequently triggers TTP and other thrombotic microangiopathies in patients with preexisting risk factors and propose a model for the development of these syndromes.

HPV immunisation and cervical screening--confirmation of changed performance of cytology as a screening test in immunised women: a retrospective population-based cohort study.

Background:To document the effect of bivalent HPV immunisation on cervical cytology as a screening test and assess the implications of any change, using a retrospective analysis of routinely collected data from the Scottish Cervical Screening Programme (SCSP).Methods:Data were extracted from the Scottish Cervical Call Recall System (SCCRS), the Scottish Population Register and the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. A total of 95 876 cytology records with 2226 linked histology records from women born between 1 January 1988 and 30 September 1993 were assessed. Women born in or after 1990 were eligible for the national catch-up programme of HPV immunisation. The performance of cervical cytology as a screening test was evaluated using the key performance indicators used routinely in the English and Scottish Cervical Screening Programmes (NHSCSP and SCSP), and related to vaccination status.Results:Significant reductions in positive predictive value (16%) and abnormal predictive value (63%) for CIN2+ and the mean colposcopy score (18%) were observed. A significant increase (38%) in the number of women who had to be referred to colposcopy to detect one case of CIN2+ was shown. The negative predictive value of negative- or low-grade cytology for CIN2+ increased significantly (12%). Sensitivity and specificity, as used by the UK cervical screening programmes, were maintained.Conclusions:The lower incidence of disease in vaccinated women alters the key performance indicators of cervical cytology used to monitor the quality of the screening programme. These findings have implications for screening, colposcopy referral criteria, colposcopy practice and histology reporting.

Spatial and Temporal Epidemiology of Sporadic Human Cryptosporidiosis in Scotland

The spatial and temporal epidemiology of human cryptosporidiosis was described by analysing sporadic cases reported in Scotland from 2005 to 2007. Measures of livestock density and human population density were explored as indicators of the geographical variation in prevalence. Cryptosporidium parvum was more common in areas with lower human population densities, with a higher ratio of the number of farms to human inhabitants and with a higher ratio of the number of private water supplies to human inhabitants. Cryptosporidium parvum caused disease in humans in rural areas and in areas with high ruminant livestock density, whereas Cryptosporidium hominis was more common in the more densely human populated areas of Scotland. The association of private water supplies and increased Cryptosporidium reports merits further public health efforts.

Sorbitol-fermenting Escherichia coli O157, Scotland.

To the Editor: Verotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) of serogroup O157 causes severe gastrointestinal and renal illness; clinical signs may be mild diarrhea, hemorrhagic colitis, or hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS). Typically, 10%–15% of reported VTEC infections quickly progress to HUS (1). Sorbitol-fermenting (SF)–O157 strains have emerged in continental Europe (2,3). Some evidence suggests that SF-O157 is more frequently associated with HUS than are non-sorbitol–fermenting strains (3–6). SF-O157 shows increased adherence to colonic epithelial cells and may in turn cause a more potent inflammatory host response, resulting in a higher risk for HUS (4). The potentially greater virulence of SF-O157 requires urgent identification of its reservoir(s) and vehicle(s) of infection, as well as determination of genetic or other predisposing factors for infection with this strain. To understand whether the host pathophysiologic responses to SF-O157 and non–SF-O157 strains differ, we analyzed a cohort of children with HUS who were infected with E. coli O157. During April and May 2006, Health Protection Scotland (HPS) identified 18 cases of verotoxin-producing SF-O157 infection in Scotland, 13 of which were associated with a nursery. HUS developed in 8 of the 18 patients; those with thrombotic microangiopathy were admitted to the renal unit of a specialist pediatric hospital, which immediately reports cases of HUS to HPS as part of national surveillance (7). To test the hypothesis that SF-O157 was more virulent than non–SF-O157, we performed an age-matched, nested case–case study of HUS case-patients and analyzed host clinical markers, treatment, and outcomes from SF-O157 and non–SF-O157 cases in 2006. Clinical questionnaires, patient information sheets, and consent forms were completed by clinicians for each case-patient and returned to HPS; data were entered into a database in Epi Info version 6 (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA). Statistical analysis by t test showed that nadirs for serum albumin were significantly higher for children with SF-O157 HUS (p = 0.03; Table) than for children with non–SF-O157 HUS and that children with SF-O157 HUS had significantly more sessions of hemodialysis than did children with non–SF-O157 HUS (p = 0.01; Table). All case-patients were oligoanuric; the 2 groups did not differ with respect to this parameter. Initial signs and symptoms were similar for both sets of patients, i.e., classic VTEC symptoms of bloody diarrhea and abdominal pain. This finding is in acccordance with those of other studies of SF-O157 outbreaks, which also noted signs and symptoms compatible with VTEC-associated gastroenteritis (5,6). Table Characteristics of patients infected with non–SF-O157 versus SF-O157 Escherichia coli, Scotland, 2006* Our study highlights a number of lessons. Medical practitioners rarely have the opportunity to recognize patients at such an appreciable and predictable risk of progressing rapidly to anuric renal failure as they do when they see children with early O157 infection. Failure to appreciate the potential gravity of O157 infection and the possible development of HUS may result in avoidable illness and even death. Our investigation of the prehospital management of SF-O157 and non–SF-O157 in this cohort found no difference in pharmacologic intervention or duration of delay in admission to hospital. Our study has limitations. A number of patients in the cohort were prescribed antimicrobial drugs and/or antimotility drugs or were sent home from the local hospital without hospital admission or further monitoring; such actions potentially exacerbate clinical outcomes (1,8). We recognize that comparison of the SF-O157 outbreak strain with non–SF-O157 strains (some of which caused sporadic cases) may be a potential confounding factor in the analysis. However, recently published work has indicated no statistically significant differences in the verotoxin proteins encoded by SF-O157 or non–SF-O157 strains or in their level of toxicity (9). Other virulence factors may contribute to increased likelihood of HUS (4). Our data suggest that infection with SF-O157 results in less severe colitis than does the more common non–SF-O157 infection. Less severe colitis could result in a lower risk for renal disease because less verotoxin would be translocated into the bloodstream and bound to the kidneys. However, patients infected with SF-O157 had anuria for longer periods and consequently had longer sessions of peritoneal and hemodialysis. Although unknown bacterial or host inflammatory cytokines may contribute to enhanced disease progression, this observation is surprising and requires further investigation. Additional research is needed to learn more about the virulence of SF-O157 strains and establish other host factors that contribute to disease progression.