Kevin Greenidge

Forecasting tourism demand: An STM approach

Abstract Since tourism is the most important economic activity in many Caribbean countries, the forecast of tourism is the key to predicting overall macroeconomic performance in this region. This study utilized Structural Time Series Modeling to explain and forecast tourist arrivals to Barbados from its major generating markets. The procedure will allow one to extract the maximum amount of information contained in the series on tourist arrivals while at the same time to include any other information relevant to forecasting arrivals. This study found these models offered valuable insights into the stylized facts of tourism behavior and provided reliable out-of-sample forecasts.

Current account deficit sustainability: the case of Barbados

This article investigates the sustainability of the current account deficit in Barbados over the period 1960 to 2006. Various unit root and cointegration techniques are employed to determine whether the country is satisfying its Intertemporal Budget Constraint (IBC). The cointegration regressions suggest that the current account of Barbados is sustainable and that deviations from long-run equilibrium between real exports and imports are corrected in the short-run with imports making the adjustment.

Economic Resilience with An Exchange Rate Peg : The Barbados Experience, 1985-2000

This paper discusses the institutional arrangements for exchange rate targeting in Barbados and the critical role they played in the policy response to its balance of payments crisis of 1991-92. The framework featured ongoing cooperation between the central bank and the Ministry of Finance, and the use of a forecast model which highlighted the size of fiscal adjustment needed to secure foreign reserves adequate to maintain the exchange rate peg.

Determinants and Volatility of Remittances in the Caribbean

Remittances are the second largest source of external financing, behind foreign direct investment (FDI) but are considered less volatile, providing stable flows to receiving countries. Their volatility compared to other capital flows is investigated, employing average rolling five-year standard deviation of growth rates for each country. Estimates of determinants using cross-sectional time series data on 15 Caribbean countries during 1987 to 2005 are derived using panel feasible Generalized Least Squares (GLS) with cross-section weights. Remittances are less volatile than FDI and official capital flows. The significance of determinants suggest actions needed to mobilize the flow of remittances in the Caribbean.

Forecasting the barbados money supply

The purpose of this paper is to provide an adequate forecasting method for the money supply in the Barbadian economy. This would assist the Central Bank in making decisions on monetary intervention. The performance of ARIMA and vector autoregressive forecasting models are investigated along with combinations of these models. The results of this study suggest that there are reasonable options available for obtaining reliable forecasts of the Barbados money supply. Our findings indicate that seasonal factors and interest rate effects should be comprehended within the forecasting model. We accomplished this through a combination forecasting procedure in which seasonal effects are captured by an ARIMA model and interest rates are introduced through a vector autoregressive forecasting model as exogenous variables.

Can money endogeneity be generalized? Empirical evidence from Caribbean economies

This study investigates the direction of causality between the money supply and reserve money for some selected Caribbean countries using recently developed techniques of causality tests. The findings suggest that neither money endogeneity nor money exogeneity can be generalized to all small, open economies. The causal patterns may differ according to whether the monetary arrangements of the countries follow either a fixed or flexible exchange rate regime. Moreover, this-study highlights the fact that a mixed bag of policies must be implemented by respective central banks to maintain macroeconomic stability.