Kevin Hyde

Research and development supporting risk-based wildfire effects prediction for fuels and fire management: status and needs

Wildland fire management has moved beyond a singular focus on suppression, calling for wildfire management for ecological benefit where no critical human assets are at risk. Processes causing direct effects and indirect, long-term ecosystem changes are complex and multidimensional. Robust risk-assessment tools are required that account for highly variable effects on multiple values-at-risk and balance competing objectives, to support decision making. Providing wildland fire managers with risk-analysis tools requires a broad scientific foundation in fire behaviour and effects prediction as well as high quality computer-based tools and associated databases. We outline a wildfire risk-assessment approach, highlight recent developments in fire effects science and associated research needs, and recommend developing a comprehensive plan for integrated advances in wildfire occurrence, behaviour and effects research leading to improved decision support tools for wildland fire managers. We find that the current state of development in fire behaviour and effects science imposes severe limits on the development of risk-assessment technology. In turn, the development of technology has been largely disconnected from the research enterprise, resulting in a confusing array of ad hoc tools that only partially meet decision-support needs for fuel and fire management. We make the case for defining a common risk-based analytic framework for fire-effects assessment across the range of fire-management activities and developing a research function to support the framework.

Built structure identification in wildland fire decision support

Recent ex-urban development within the wildland interface has significantly increased the complexity and associated cost of federal wildland fire management in the United States. Rapid identification of built structures relative to probable fire spread can help to reduce that complexity and improve the performance of incident management teams. Approximate structure locations can be mapped as specific-point building cluster features using cadastral data records. This study assesses the accuracy and precision of building clusters relative to GPS structure locations and compares these results with area mapping of housing density using census-based products. We demonstrate that building clusters are reasonably accurate and precise approximations of structure locations and provide superior strategic information for wildland fire decision support compared with area density techniques. Real-time delivery of structure locations and other values-at-risk mapped relative to probable fire spread through the Wildland Fire Decision Support System Rapid Assessment of Values at Risk procedure supports development of wildland fire management strategies.

Bark beetle-induced forest mortality in the North American Rocky Mountains

The epidemic of mortality by insects and disease throughout the Northern American Rocky Mountains exceeds previous records both in severity and spatial extent. Beetle attacks weaken trees and introduce blue-stain fungi that induce hydraulic failure leading to mortality. The magnitude of this outbreak spurs predictions of major changes to biogeochemical cycling and hydrologic response, changes in species assemblages, and increased wildfire risk. Review of emerging empirical studies reveals conflicting evidence of changes and limited environmental threats. However, widespread forest mortality generates net economic costs and losses by reducing or eliminating market and nonmarket value. Potential deadfall may threaten human life and infrastructure and add costs of programs for hazard-tree reduction. Although forest regeneration following insect epidemics indicates resilient ecological systems, synergistic interactions of beetle kill with other disturbance processes, exacerbated by warming temperatures and drought may stimulate longer-term environmental concerns.