Kevin Leder

Mathematical modeling of pdgf-driven glioblastoma reveals optimized radiation dosing schedules

Glioblastomas (GBMs) are the most common and malignant primary brain tumors and are aggressively treated with surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. Despite this treatment, recurrence is inevitable and survival has improved minimally over the last 50 years. Recent studies have suggested that GBMs exhibit both heterogeneity and instability of differentiation states and varying sensitivities of these states to radiation. Here, we employed an iterative combined theoretical and experimental strategy that takes into account tumor cellular heterogeneity and dynamically acquired radioresistance to predict the effectiveness of different radiation schedules. Using this model, we identified two delivery schedules predicted to significantly improve efficacy by taking advantage of the dynamic instability of radioresistance. These schedules led to superior survival in mice. Our interdisciplinary approach may also be applicable to other human cancer types treated with radiotherapy and, hence, may lay the foundation for significantly increasing the effectiveness of a mainstay of oncologic therapy. PAPERCLIP:

Intratumor Heterogeneity in Evolutionary Models of Tumor Progression

With rare exceptions, human tumors arise from single cells that have accumulated the necessary number and types of heritable alterations. Each such cell leads to dysregulated growth and eventually the formation of a tumor. Despite their monoclonal origin, at the time of diagnosis most tumors show a striking amount of intratumor heterogeneity in all measurable phenotypes; such heterogeneity has implications for diagnosis, treatment efficacy, and the identification of drug targets. An understanding of the extent and evolution of intratumor heterogeneity is therefore of direct clinical importance. In this article, we investigate the evolutionary dynamics of heterogeneity arising during exponential expansion of a tumor cell population, in which heritable alterations confer random fitness changes to cells. We obtain analytical estimates for the extent of heterogeneity and quantify the effects of system parameters on this tumor trait. Our work contributes to a mathematical understanding of intratumor heterogeneity and is also applicable to organisms like bacteria, agricultural pests, and other microbes.

Importance sampling for sums of random variables with regularly varying tails

Importance sampling is a variance reduction technique for efficient estimation of rare-event probabilities by Monte Carlo. For random variables with heavy tails there is little consensus on how to choose the change of measure used in importance sampling. In this article we study dynamic importance sampling schemes for sums of independent and identically distributed random variables with regularly varying tails. The number of summands can be random but must be independent of the summands. For estimating the probability that the sum exceeds a given threshold, we explicitly identify a class of dynamic importance sampling algorithms with bounded relative errors. In fact, these schemes are nearly asymptotically optimal in the sense that the second moment of the corresponding importance sampling estimator can be made as close as desired to the minimal possible value.

The therapeutic implications of plasticity of the cancer stem cell phenotype.

The cancer stem cell hypothesis suggests that tumors contain a small population of cancer cells that have the ability to undergo symmetric self-renewing cell division. In tumors that follow this model, cancer stem cells produce various kinds of specified precursors that divide a limited number of times before terminally differentiating or undergoing apoptosis. As cells within the tumor mature, they become progressively more restricted in the cell types to which they can give rise. However, in some tumor types, the presence of certain extra- or intracellular signals can induce committed cancer progenitors to revert to a multipotential cancer stem cell state. In this paper, we design a novel mathematical model to investigate the dynamics of tumor progression in such situations, and study the implications of a reversible cancer stem cell phenotype for therapeutic interventions. We find that higher levels of dedifferentiation substantially reduce the effectiveness of therapy directed at cancer stem cells by leading to higher rates of resistance. We conclude that plasticity of the cancer stem cell phenotype is an important determinant of the prognosis of tumors. This model represents the first mathematical investigation of this tumor trait and contributes to a quantitative understanding of cancer.

Evolutionary modeling of combination treatment strategies to overcome resistance to tyrosine kinase inhibitors in non-small cell lung cancer

Many initially successful anticancer therapies lose effectiveness over time, and eventually, cancer cells acquire resistance to the therapy. Acquired resistance remains a major obstacle to improving remission rates and achieving prolonged disease-free survival. Consequently, novel approaches to overcome or prevent resistance are of significant clinical importance. There has been considerable interest in treating non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with combinations of EGFR-targeted therapeutics (e.g., erlotinib) and cytotoxic therapeutics (e.g., paclitaxel); however, acquired resistance to erlotinib, driven by a variety of mechanisms, remains an obstacle to treatment success. In about 50% of cases, resistance is due to a T790M point mutation in EGFR, and T790M-containing cells ultimately dominate the tumor composition and lead to tumor regrowth. We employed a combined experimental and mathematical modeling-based approach to identify treatment strategies that impede the outgrowth of primary T790M-mediated resistance in NSCLC populations. Our mathematical model predicts the population dynamics of mixtures of sensitive and resistant cells, thereby describing how the tumor composition, initial fraction of resistant cells, and degree of selective pressure influence the time until progression of disease. Model development relied upon quantitative experimental measurements of cell proliferation and death using a novel microscopy approach. Using this approach, we systematically explored the space of combination treatment strategies and demonstrated that optimally timed sequential strategies yielded large improvements in survival outcome relative to monotherapies at the same concentrations. Our investigations revealed regions of the treatment space in which low-dose sequential combination strategies, after preclinical validation, may lead to a tumor reduction and improved survival outcome for patients with T790M-mediated resistance.

Fitness Conferred by BCR-ABL Kinase Domain Mutations Determines the Risk of Pre-Existing Resistance in Chronic Myeloid Leukemia

Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is the first human malignancy to be successfully treated with a small molecule inhibitor, imatinib, targeting a mutant oncoprotein (BCR-ABL). Despite its successes, acquired resistance to imatinib leads to reduced drug efficacy and frequent progression of disease. Understanding the characteristics of pre-existing resistant cells is important for evaluating the benefits of first-line combination therapy with second generation inhibitors. However, due to limitations of assay sensitivity, determining the existence and characteristics of resistant cell clones at the start of therapy is difficult. Here we combined a mathematical modeling approach using branching processes with experimental data on the fitness changes (i.e., changes in net reproductive rate) conferred by BCR-ABL kinase domain mutations to investigate the likelihood, composition, and diversity of pre-existing resistance. Furthermore, we studied the impact of these factors on the response to tyrosine kinase inhibitors. Our approach predicts that in most patients, there is at most one resistant clone present at the time of diagnosis of their disease. Interestingly, patients are no more likely to harbor the most aggressive, pan-resistant T315I mutation than any other resistance mutation; however, T315I cells on average establish larger-sized clones at the time of diagnosis. We established that for patients diagnosed late, the relative benefit of combination therapy over monotherapy with imatinib is significant, while this benefit is modest for patients with a typically early diagnosis time. These findings, after pre-clinical validation, will have implications for the clinical management of CML: we recommend that patients with advanced-phase disease be treated with combination therapy with at least two tyrosine kinase inhibitors.

Evolutionary dynamics of tumor progression with random fitness values

Most human tumors result from the accumulation of multiple genetic and epigenetic alterations in a single cell. Mutations that confer a fitness advantage to the cell are known as driver mutations and are causally related to tumorigenesis. Other mutations, however, do not change the phenotype of the cell or even decrease cellular fitness. While much experimental effort is being devoted to the identification of the functional effects of individual mutations, mathematical modeling of tumor progression generally considers constant fitness increments as mutations are accumulated. In this paper we study a mathematical model of tumor progression with random fitness increments. We analyze a multi-type branching process in which cells accumulate mutations whose fitness effects are chosen from a distribution. We determine the effect of the fitness distribution on the growth kinetics of the tumor. This work contributes to a quantitative understanding of the accumulation of mutations leading to cancer.

The Impact of Microenvironmental Heterogeneity on the Evolution of Drug Resistance in Cancer Cells

Therapeutic resistance arises as a result of evolutionary processes driven by dynamic feedback between a heterogeneous cell population and environmental selective pressures. Previous studies have suggested that mutations conferring resistance to epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cells lower the fitness of resistant cells relative to drug-sensitive cells in a drug-free environment. Here, we hypothesize that the local tumor microenvironment could influence the magnitude and directionality of the selective effect, both in the presence and absence of a drug. Using a combined experimental and computational approach, we developed a mathematical model of preexisting drug resistance describing multiple cellular compartments, each representing a specific tumor environmental niche. This model was parameterized using a novel experimental dataset derived from the HCC827 erlotinib-sensitive and -resistant NSCLC cell lines. We found that, in contrast to in the drug-free environment, resistant cells may hold a fitness advantage compared to parental cells in microenvironments deficient in oxygen and nutrients. We then utilized the model to predict the impact of drug and nutrient gradients on tumor composition and recurrence times, demonstrating that these endpoints are strongly dependent on the microenvironment. Our interdisciplinary approach provides a model system to quantitatively investigate the impact of microenvironmental effects on the evolutionary dynamics of tumor cells.

Large deviations and importance sampling for a tandem network with slow-down

Abstract We consider a variant of the two-node tandem Jackson network where the upstream server reduces its service rate when the downstream queue exceeds some prespecified threshold. The rare event of interest is the overflow of the downstream queue. Based on a game/subsolution approach, we rigorously identify the exponential decay rate of the rare event probabilities and construct asymptotically optimal importance sampling schemes.

Multifocality and recurrence risk: A quantitative model of field cancerization

Primary tumors often emerge within genetically altered fields of premalignant cells that appear histologically normal but have a high chance of progression to malignancy. Clinical observations have suggested that these premalignant fields pose high risks for emergence of recurrent tumors if left behind after surgical removal of the primary tumor. In this work, we develop a spatio-temporal stochastic model of epithelial carcinogenesis, combining cellular dynamics with a general framework for multi-stage genetic progression to cancer. Using the model, we investigate how various properties of the premalignant fields depend on microscopic cellular properties of the tissue. In particular, we provide analytic results for the size-distribution of the histologically undetectable premalignant fields at the time of diagnosis, and investigate how the extent and the geometry of these fields depend upon key groups of parameters associated with the tissue and genetic pathways. We also derive analytical results for the relative risks of local vs. distant secondary tumors for different parameter regimes, a critical aspect for the optimal choice of post-operative therapy in carcinoma patients. This study contributes to a growing literature seeking to obtain a quantitative understanding of the spatial dynamics in cancer initiation.