Kevin M. Podruzny

Geographical gradients in the population dynamics of North American prairie ducks

1. Geographic gradients in population dynamics may occur because of spatial variation in resources that affect the deterministic components of the dynamics (i.e. carrying capacity, the specific growth rate at small densities or the strength of density regulation) or because of spatial variation in the effects of environmental stochasticity. To evaluate these, we used a hierarchical Bayesian approach to estimate parameters characterizing deterministic components and stochastic influences on population dynamics of eight species of ducks (mallard, northern pintail, blue-winged teal, gadwall, northern shoveler, American wigeon, canvasback and redhead (Anas platyrhynchos, A. acuta, A. discors, A. strepera, A. clypeata, A. americana, Aythya valisineria and Ay. americana, respectively) breeding in the North American prairies, and then tested whether these parameters varied latitudinally. 2. We also examined the influence of temporal variation in the availability of wetlands, spring temperature and winter precipitation on population dynamics to determine whether geographical gradients in population dynamics were related to large-scale variation in environmental effects. Population variability, as measured by the variance of the population fluctuations around the carrying capacity K, decreased with latitude for all species except canvasback. This decrease in population variability was caused by a combination of latitudinal gradients in the strength of density dependence, carrying capacity and process variance, for which details varied by species. 3. The effects of environmental covariates on population dynamics also varied latitudinally, particularly for mallard, northern pintail and northern shoveler. However, the proportion of the process variance explained by environmental covariates, with the exception of mallard, tended to be small. 4. Thus, geographical gradients in population dynamics of prairie ducks resulted from latitudinal gradients in both deterministic and stochastic components, and were likely influenced by spatial differences in the distribution of wetland types and shapes, agricultural practices and dispersal processes. 5. These results suggest that future management of these species could be improved by implementing harvest models that account explicitly for spatial variation in density effects and environmental stochasticity on population abundance.

Determining Occurrence Dynamics when False Positives Occur: Estimating the Range Dynamics of Wolves from Public Survey Data

Large-scale presence-absence monitoring programs have great promise for many conservation applications. Their value can be limited by potential incorrect inferences owing to observational errors, especially when data are collected by the public. To combat this, previous analytical methods have focused on addressing non-detection from public survey data. Misclassification errors have received less attention but are also likely to be a common component of public surveys, as well as many other data types. We derive estimators for dynamic occupancy parameters (extinction and colonization), focusing on the case where certainty can be assumed for a subset of detections. We demonstrate how to simultaneously account for non-detection (false negatives) and misclassification (false positives) when estimating occurrence parameters for gray wolves in northern Montana from 2007–2010. Our primary data source for the analysis was observations by deer and elk hunters, reported as part of the state’s annual hunter survey. This data was supplemented with data from known locations of radio-collared wolves. We found that occupancy was relatively stable during the years of the study and wolves were largely restricted to the highest quality habitats in the study area. Transitions in the occupancy status of sites were rare, as occupied sites almost always remained occupied and unoccupied sites remained unoccupied. Failing to account for false positives led to over estimation of both the area inhabited by wolves and the frequency of turnover. The ability to properly account for both false negatives and false positives is an important step to improve inferences for conservation from large-scale public surveys. The approach we propose will improve our understanding of the status of wolf populations and is relevant to many other data types where false positives are a component of observations.

Long-term response of northern pintails to changes in wetlands and agriculture in the Canadian prairie pothole region

From 1955 through the late 1970s, northern pintail (Anas acuta) populations closely tracked the abundance of spring ponds. Declines in numbers of both northern pintails (hereafter, pintails) and ponds were evident during years of drought. However, since the early 1980s, the strength of the relationship between pintails and ponds has weakened greatly. Agricultural expansion on primary breeding grounds has been implicated as the cause of sustained pintail declines, but previous studies investigated pintail response only at large geographic scales (e.g., prairie-wide, stratum level). Potentially important effects of localized or multiscale changes in wetlands and agriculture on pintails are not well understood. Using data from the Canadian Prairie Pothole Region for 1961 to 1996, we investigated spatial and temporal covariation of pintail numbers with environmental factors (pond numbers and wetness indices) and agriculture at various scales. Models best supported by the data indicated that pintails responded positively to winter precipitation but with important regional variation and positively to pond numbers in some locations (southwestern Saskatchewan and southern Alberta). Results also indicated that pintail settling was better explained (increases in R 2 values of 0.05-0.06) using information about specific agricultural practices than about overall increases in farmed area. At a prairie-wide scale, we detected a negative association between settling and increased cropland area. At regional scales, settling was positively associated to various degrees with area in fallow (i.e., summerfallow-land tilled but not planted to crop in a given year). Both associations were strengthened with higher winter precipitation. Because cropland stubble is used readily as a nesting habitat by pintails and spring tillage of fields not used for summerfallow destroys nests, a shift from summerfallow to continuous cropping in the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada may have reduced the reproductive capacity of pintails in important breeding areas. In regions with characteristics that historically have attracted pintails to settle, we encourage land managers to promote agricultural practices that minimize use of spring tillage, convert cropland to perennial forages and pasture, and protect and restore wetland and upland habitat.

YELLOWSTONE BISON FETAL DEVELOPMENT AND PHENOLOGY OF PARTURITION

Abstract Knowledge of Yellowstone bison (Bison bison) parturition patterns allows managers to refine risk assessments and manage to reduce the potential for transmission of brucellosis between bison and cattle. We used historical (1941) and contemporary (1989–2002) weights and morphometric measurements of Yellowstone bison fetuses to describe fetal growth and to predict timing and synchrony of parturition. Our method was supported by agreement between our predicted parturition pattern and observed birth dates for bison that were taken in to captivity while pregnant. The distribution of parturition dates in Yellowstone bison is generally right-skewed with a majority of births in April and May and few births in the following months. Predicted timing of parturition was consistently earlier for bison of Yellowstones northern herd than central herd. The predicted median parturition date for northern herd bison in the historical period was 3 to 12 days earlier than for 2 years in the contemporary period, respectively. Median predicted birth dates and birthing synchrony differed within herds and years in the contemporary period. For a single year of paired data, the predicted median birth date for northern herd bison was 14 days earlier than for central herd bison. This difference is coincident with an earlier onset of spring plant growth on the northern range. Our findings permit refinement of the timing of separation between Yellowstone bison and cattle intended to reduce the probability of transmission of brucellosis from bison to cattle.

Incisor wear and age in Yellowstone bison

Abstract Biologists commonly use tooth eruption and wear patterns or cementum annuli techniques to estimate age of ungulates. However, in some situations the accuracy or sampling procedures of either approach are undesirable. We investigated the progression of several quantitative measures of wear with age, using permanent first incisors from Yellowstone bison (Bison bison), and tested for differences between sexes and herds. We further investigated the relationship of wear and age to explore an age-estimation method. Labial-lingual width (LLW) correlated best with assigned age (r2=0.66, males; r2=0.76 females). Labial-lingual width differed between sexes, with females showing ∼0.2 mm more wear than males. Additionally, differences in rate of wear existed between bison of the northern and central Yellowstone herds (1.2 and 0.9 mm/year, respectively). We developed a regression formula to test the power of LLW as an estimator of Yellowstone bison age. Our method provided estimated ages within 1 year of the assigned age 73% and 82% of the time for female and male bison, respectively.

Landscape heterogeneity and the effect of environmental conditions on prairie wetlands

Populations can vary considerably in their response to environmental fluctuations, and understanding the mechanisms behind this variation is vital for predicting effects of environmental variation and change on population dynamics. Such variation can be caused by spatial differences in how environmental conditions influence key parameters for the species, such as availability of food or breeding grounds. Knowing how these differences are distributed in the landscape allows us to identify areas that we can expect the highest impact of environmental change, and where predictions on population dynamical effects will be most precise. We evaluated how wetland dynamics in the North-American prairies (pond counts; a key parameter for several waterfowl populations) were related to spatial and temporal variation in the environment, as measured by weather variables, primary productivity and phenology derived from annual normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) curves, and agricultural composition of the landscape. Spatial and temporal variation in pond counts were closely related to these environmental variables. However, correlation strength and predictive ability of these environmental variables on wetland dynamics varied considerably across the study area. This variation was related to landscape characteristics and to the spatial scaling of the wetland dynamics, such that areas with late onset of spring, low spring temperature, high primary productivity, and high proportion of cropland had more predictable and spatially-homogenous dynamics. The success of predicting environmental influences on wetlands from NDVI measures derived from satellite images indicates they will be useful tools for assessing effects of changing landscape and climatic conditions on wetland ecosystems and their wildlife populations.