Kevin M. Swartout

Trajectory Analysis of the Campus Serial Rapist Assumption

IMPORTANCE Rape on college campuses has been addressed recently by a presidential proclamation, federal legislation, advocacy groups, and popular media. Many initiatives assume that most college men who perpetrate rape are serial rapists. The scientific foundation for this perspective is surprisingly limited. OBJECTIVE To determine whether a group of serial rapists exists by identifying cohesive groups of young men, indicated by their trajectories of rape likelihood across high school and college. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Latent class growth analysis of the 2 largest longitudinal data sets of adolescent sexual violence on college campuses using 2 distinct groups of male college students. The first group was used for derivation modeling (n = 847; data collected from August 1990 through April 1995) and the second for validation modeling (n = 795; data collected from March 2008 through May 2011). Final data analyses were conducted from February 16, 2015, through February 20, 2015. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Rape perpetration assessed using the Sexual Experiences Survey. RESULTS Across samples, 178 of 1642 participants (10.8%) reported having perpetrated at least 1 rape from 14 years of age through the end of college. A 3-trajectory model best fit both the derivation and validation data sets. Trajectories reflected low or time-limited (92.6% of participants), decreasing (5.3%), and increasing (2.1%) rape patterns. No consistently high trajectory was found. Most men who perpetrated a rape before college were classified in the decreasing trajectory. During college, the increasing trajectory included 14 men (15.2%) who reported having perpetrated a rape, the decreasing trajectory included 30 men (32.6%), and the low or time-limited included 48 men (52.2%). No participant in the low or time-limited trajectory reported perpetrating a rape during more than 1 period. Most men (67 [72.8%]) who committed college rape only perpetrated rape during 1 academic year. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Although a small group of men perpetrated rape across multiple college years, they constituted a significant minority of those who committed college rape and did not compose the group at highest risk of perpetrating rape when entering college. Exclusive emphasis on serial predation to guide risk identification, judicial response, and rape-prevention programs is misguided. To deter college rape, prevention should be initiated before, and continue during, college. Child and adolescent health care professionals are well positioned to intervene during the early teenage years by informing parents about the early onset of nonconsensual sexual behavior.

Validity for an Integrated Laboratory Analogue of Sexual Aggression and Bystander Intervention

This study sought to develop and validate an integrated laboratory paradigm of sexual aggression and bystander intervention. Participants were a diverse community sample (54% African American) of heterosexual males (N = 156) between 21 and 35 years of age who were recruited to complete the study with a male friend and an ostensibly single, heterosexual female who reported a strong dislike of sexual content in the media. Participants viewed a sexually explicit or nonsexually explicit film clip as part of contrived media rating task and made individual choices of which film clip to show the female confederate. Immediately thereafter, participants were required to reach consensus on a group decision of which film clip to show the female confederate. Subjecting a target to an unwanted experience with a sexual connotation was operationalized as selection of the sexually explicit video, whereas successful bystander intervention was operationalized as the event of one partner individually selecting the sexually explicit video but then selecting the nonsexually explicit video for the group choice. Results demonstrated that a 1-year history of sexual aggression and endorsement of pertinent misogynistic attitudes significantly predicted selection of the sexually-explicit video. In addition, bystander efficacy significantly predicted mens successful prevention of their male peers intent to show the female confederate a sexually explicit video. Discussion focused on how these data inform future research and bystander intervention programming for sexual aggression.

Trajectories of intimate partner violence victimization.

Introduction The purposes of this study were to assess the extent to which latent trajectories of female intimate partner violence (IPV) victimization exist; and, if so, use negative childhood experiences to predict trajectory membership. Methods We collected data from 1,575 women at 5 time-points regarding experiences during adolescence and their 4 years of college. We used latent class growth analysis to fit a series of person-centered, longitudinal models ranging from 1 to 5 trajectories. Once the best-fitting model was selected, we used negative childhood experience variables—sexual abuse, physical abuse, and witnessing domestic violence—to predict most-likely trajectory membership via multinomial logistic regression. Results A 5-trajectory model best fit the data both statistically and in terms of interpretability. The trajectories across time were interpreted as low or no IPV, low to moderate IPV, moderate to low IPV, high to moderate IPV, and high and increasing IPV, respectively. Negative childhood experiences differentiated trajectory membership, somewhat, with childhood sexual abuse as a consistent predictor of membership in elevated IPV trajectories. Conclusion Our analyses show how IPV risk changes over time and in different ways. These differential patterns of IPV suggest the need for prevention strategies tailored for women that consider victimization experiences in childhood and early adulthood.

The Relationship Between Drug Use and Sexual Aggression in Men Across Time

The relationship between drug use and sexual aggression in a sample of men was examined at five time points from adolescence through the 4th year of college. Hierarchical linear modeling explored the relationship between proximal drug use and severity of sexual aggression after controlling for proximal alcohol use at each time period. Results revealed that proximal drug use was associated with sexual aggression severity: Increased drug use predicted increased severity of sexual aggression across time. A second set of analyses explored the relationship between distal marijuana use and severity of sexual aggression after controlling for distal alcohol use. Results indicated that increased marijuana use predicted increased severity of sexual aggression across time. A third set of analyses explored the relationship between distal use of other illicit drugs and severity of sexual aggression after controlling for distal alcohol use. Results mirrored those of the second set of analyses and are discussed in terms of drug use as a component of deviant lifestyles that may include sexually aggressive behavior, including implications for applied settings.

Trajectories of male sexual aggression from adolescence through college: A latent class growth analysis

Approximately 25% of male college students report engaging in some form of sexual coercion by the end of their fourth year of college. White and Smith (2004) found that negative childhood experiences-childhood sexual abuse, childhood physical abuse, and witnessing domestic violence-predicted sexual aggression perpetrated before college, but not during the subsequent college years, a puzzling finding in view of the reasonably consistent rates of sexual aggression from adolescence to the first 2 years of college. The current study takes a person-centered approach to sexual aggression in an attempt to resolve this discrepancy. We examined the possibility of cohesive subgroups of men in terms of their frequency of sexual aggression across the pre-college and college years. A series of latent class growth models were fit to an existing longitudinal dataset of sexual experiences collected across four time points-pre-college through year 3 of college. A four-trajectory model fit the data well, exhibiting significantly better fit than a three-trajectory model. The four trajectories are interpreted as men who perpetrate sexual aggression at (1) low (71.5% of the sample), (2) moderate (21.2%), (3) decreasing (4.2%), and (4) increasing (3.1%) frequencies across time. Negative childhood experiences predicted membership of the decreasing trajectory, relative to the low trajectory, but did not predict membership of the increasing trajectory, explaining the discrepancy uncovered by White and Smith. Implications for primary prevention of sexual aggression are discussed.

What Your Data Didn’t Tell You the First Time Around: Advanced Analytic Approaches to Longitudinal Analyses

The present article describes the gap that exists between traditional data analysis techniques and more sophisticated methods that tend to be used more commonly among researchers outside of the study of v iolence against women. We briefly characterize growth models and person-centered analyses and describe the growing body of work in v iolence research that has applied these methods. Through an example from our own application of one of these techniques—latent class growth analysis—we highlight the ways that v iolence against women researchers may benefit from applying these more sophisticated methods to their own data, both past and present.

Deconstructing Hegemonic Masculinity: The Roles of Antifemininity, Subordination to Women, and Sexual Dominance in Men’s Perpetration of Sexual Aggression

The aim of this investigation was to examine a theoretically based mechanism by which mens adherence to antifeminine norms is associated with their perpetration of sexual aggression toward intimate partners. Participants were 208 heterosexual men between the ages of 21-35 who had consumed alcohol in the past year. They were recruited from a large southeastern United States city. Participants completed self-report measures of hegemonic masculinity (i.e., antifemininity, sexual dominance), masculine gender role stress, and sexual aggression toward an intimate partner during the past 12 months. Results indicated that adherence to the antifemininity norm and the tendency to experience stress when in subordinate positions to women were indirectly related to sexual aggression perpetration via adherence to the sexual dominance norm. Thus, the men who adhere strongly to these particular hegemonic masculine norms may feel compelled to be sexually aggressive and/or coercive toward an intimate partner in order to maintain their need for dominance within their intimate relationship. Implications for future research and sexual aggression prevention programming are discussed.

Masculinity and Bystander Attitudes: Moderating Effects of Masculine Gender Role Stress

Objective The purpose of the current study was to examine the bystander decision-making process as a mechanism by which mens adherence to various dimensions of traditional masculinity is associated with their confidence to intervene in sexually aggressive events. Further, this study examined the stress men experience from their attempts to adhere to traditional male gender roles as a moderator of this mediational path. Method Participants (n = 252) completed measures of traditional masculinity, decisional balance (i.e., weighing the pros and cons) for intervening, masculine gender roles stress, and bystander efficacy. Results The belief that men must attain social status was associated with more confidence in mens ability to intervene. This effect was mediated by greater perceived positive consequences for intervention among men high, but not low, in masculine gender role stress. The belief that men should be tough and aggressive was associated with greater perceived negative consequences for intervention and less confidence to intervene. The belief that men should not act in stereotypically feminine ways was directly associated with less confidence for intervention. Conclusions Findings highlight the importance of examining masculinity from a multidimensional perspective to better understand how adherence to various norms differentially influences bystander behavior. These findings may help to inform bystander intervention programming.

Age and sex differences in prospective effects of health goals and motivations on daily leisure-time physical activity.

OBJECTIVE To examine relationships between health goals, types of motivation for those goals, and daily leisure-time physical activity (LTPA), and whether these relationships differ by age or sex. METHODS From 2005 to 2008, 710 participants in and around Berlin, Germany provided life goals and motivational attributes of those goals at baseline, then reported LTPA daily for 25 days. RESULTS Having (vs. not having) a goal of physical health predicted higher odds of engaging in LTPA for younger but not older participants (under age 30; OR=1.26, p=0.048), and was not related to duration of LTPA episodes. Effect of intrinsic motivation for the health goal differed by sex: for females, higher intrinsic motivation predicted higher odds of LTPA (OR=1.19, p=0.001), but was not related to duration. For males, higher intrinsic motivation predicted lower LTPA odds marginally (OR=0.70, p=0.054) but predicted longer duration (estimate=18.27 min, p<0.001). More approach motivation for the health goal predicted longer duration of LTPA episodes (0.67 min, p=0.022). CONCLUSIONS One size does not fit all in LTPA intervention design. Future research should identify the mechanisms by which health goals and motivations affect health behavior.

Epidemiology of Suicide Attempts among Youth Transitioning to Adulthood

Suicide is the second leading cause of death for older adolescents and young adults. Although empirical literature has identified important risk factors of suicidal behavior, it is less understood if changes in risk factors correspond with changes in suicide risk. To address this knowledge gap, we assessed if there were different trajectories of suicidal behavior as youth transition into young adulthood and determined what time-varying risk factors predicted these trajectories. This study used four waves of data spanning approximately 13 years from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. The sample included 9027 respondents who were 12–18 years old (M = 15.26; SD = 1.76) at Wave 1, 50% male, 17% Hispanic, and 58% White. The results indicated that 93.6% of the sample had a low likelihood for suicide attempts across time, 5.1% had an elevated likelihood of attempting suicide in adolescence but not young adulthood, and 1.3% had an elevated likelihood of attempting suicide during adolescence and adulthood. The likelihood of a suicide attempt corresponded with changes on depression, impulsivity, delinquency, alcohol problems, family and friend suicide history, and experience with partner violence. Determining how suicide risk changes as youth transition into young adulthood and what factors predict these changes can help prevent suicide. Interventions targeting these risk factors could lead to reductions in suicide attempts.