Kevin T. Jacques

Risk-based capital, portfolio risk, and bank capital: A simultaneous equations approach

This paper examines the impact the recently implemented risk-based standards have had on both bank capital and portfolio risk. To date, little if any attention has focused on how the risk-based capital standards have impacted bank risk and capital levels. Building on previous research, this paper uses a three-stage least squares (3SLS) model to analyze the relationship between bank capital, portfolio risk, and the risk-based capital standards. The results suggest that the risk-based capital standards had a significant impact on capital and risk levels in well-capitalized banks, but little impact on undercapitalized banks.

The impact of FDICIA and prompt corrective action on bank capital and risk: Estimates using a simultaneous equations model

Abstract One of the requirements of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act (FDICIA) was that bank regulators establish capital ratio zones that mandate prompt corrective action (PCA) and early intervention in troubled banks. However, prior research suggests that increases in regulatory capital standards can lead to offsetting increases in risk. This paper develops and estimates a 3SLS model to examine the simultaneous impact of PCA on both bank capital and credit risk. The results document that the FDICIA was effective in that, subsequent to its passage, US banks increased their capital ratios without offsetting increases in credit risk.

Assessing the Impact of Prompt Corrective Action on Bank Capital and Risk

This paper examines the impact that the Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) standards had on bank portfolios following the passage of FDICIA in 1991. To do this, the simultaneous equations model developed by Shrieves and Dahl (1992), and later modified by Jacques and Nigro (1997) to study the impact of risk-based capital, is used to examine how PCA simultaneously influenced bank capital ratios and portfolio risk levels. Unlike prior studies on this topic, by using a simultaneous equations model, the endogeneity of both capital and portfolio risk is explicitly recognized, and as such, the impact of possible changes in bank capital ratios on risk in a banks portfolio can be examined.

Unit roots, interest rate spreads, and inflation forecasts

Recent research suggests that long-term interest rate spreads provide information that can be useful in forecasting inflation, but that the spread between the three-month and six-month Treasury bill rates appears to have little forecasting ability. This paper uses the concepts of unit roots and cointegration to examine the failure of the short-term T-bill spread to forecast inflation. The results suggest that the interest rate spread has little forecasting value because inflation and the interest rate spread exhibit distinctly different time-series properties.

Procyclicality, Bank Lending, and the Macroeconomic Implications of a Revised Basel Accord

Bank regulators are in the process of implementing revised regulatory capital standards. However, the macroeconomic effects of a revised Basel Accord are uncertain. Examining the various channels through which the revised Accord may influence economic output suggests that making the buffer stock of capital positively related to the business cycle is necessary to reduce procyclicality. This can be accomplished by bank regulators using either enhanced supervisory powers or increased financial disclosure.

Risk Weights in Regulatory Capital Standards: Is It Necessary to 'Get It Right'?

In recent decades, bank regulators have become increasingly reliant upon quantitative regulatory capital standards as a means of ensuring that banks hold adequate capital. The risk-based capital standards, from the 1988 Accord through the current Basel II standards, have primarily relied upon a building block approach to capital through the use of risk weights assigned to assets and off-balance sheet activities. Despite enhancements to improve the accuracy of risk-based capital standards, they continue to result in unintended consequences as the use of risk weights brings with it errors in the measurement of risk. Given the ongoing efforts by bank regulators to quantitatively assess risk, and correspondingly required capital, this study asks whether it is necessary for regulators to accurately assess risk weights in the risk-based capital standards. The simulation results suggest that, in order to minimize the unintended consequences associated with regulatory capital requirements, it is necessary for regulatory requirements to accurately mimic banks’ internal capital allocation processes.