Kevin T. Wolff

Comparison of Multisystemic Therapy and Functional Family Therapy Effectiveness: A Multiyear Statewide Propensity Score Matching Analysis of Juvenile Offenders

Propensity score matching (PSM) is used to examine the effectiveness of Multisystemic Therapy compared with Functional Family Therapy (FFT) in a multiyear statewide sample of juvenile offenders. Outcomes include offenses and violations of probation during service and 12-month recidivism. Salient selection effects including delinquent peer associations, substance use, and lack of adherence to parental rules, as well as strong correlates of the outcome measures (risk assessment scores, age at first offense, most serious prior offense) and pertinent demographics, were controlled for in the PSM. Results indicate few significant differences in the effectiveness of the two modalities, with the exception that female youth receiving FFT have lower recidivism and low risk youth receiving FFT have fewer offenses/violations of probation during service provision.

Adverse Childhood Experiences, Negative Emotionality, and Pathways to Juvenile Recidivism

Prior work has illustrated youth exposed to adverse parenting practices are more likely to offend and juvenile offenders with maltreatment histories more likely to re-offend. In addition, aggressive tendencies and a hostile interpretation of the actions of others and one’s environment increase antisocial behavior. Unfortunately, the pathways by which those effects occur are not well understood. Using a sample of more than 25,000 juvenile offenders, we use structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the pathways by which adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) affect juvenile delinquency. Results indicate ACEs have both a direct and indirect effect on recidivism, with nearly half of the total effect of ACEs on re-offending operating through negative emotionality. Policy implications are discussed.

The Triple Crown of Antisocial Behavior Effortful Control, Negative Emotionality, and Community Disadvantage

This study examines the effect of negative emotionality, effortful control, and community disadvantage on juvenile recidivism. Using DeLisi and Vaughn’s temperament theory as a foundation, we assess whether youth who have temperament issues and those who live in disadvantaged communities are more likely to recidivate. Findings indicate that net of a wide array of known risk factors, youth with poor temperaments, and those living in disadvantaged communities are more likely to reoffend. Additionally, those youth who face a triple threat of temperament issues and disadvantage reoffend faster post-completion. The theoretical and policy implications of these findings are discussed.

A Multilevel Examination of Risk/Need Change Scores, Community Context, and Successful Reentry of Committed Juvenile Offenders

Current theory and practice dictates the use of risk/needs assessment to guide programming to reduce reoffending. Limited research has examined assessment change scores and recidivism, none examining whether such changes moderate the effects of deleterious community contexts. We examine a multiyear statewide sample of juvenile offenders returning to the community from residential placement (N = 12,302). We address whether changes in dynamic risk/needs scores predict official recidivism upon return, community socioeconomic contexts predict recidivism, and which risk/needs changes moderate the effects of context. Findings reveal 6 of the 17 change scores affect reoffending, context matters, and some change scores moderate contextual effects.

Do Social Bonds Buffer the Impact of Adverse Childhood Experiences on Reoffending

Research from multiple disciplines has reported that exposure to childhood traumatic events, often referred to as adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), increases an individual’s chances of experiencing a wide variety of negative consequences such as chronic disease, unemployment, and involvement in serious, violent, and chronic offending. The current study assesses how protective factors from social bonds may moderate the relationship between ACEs and future offending in a sample of high-risk adjudicated youth. While results showed that increased ACE exposure led to a higher likelihood of rearrest and more social bonds lowered the likelihood of rearrest, in contrast to expectations, the analyses revealed that stronger social bonds did not reduce the deleterious effects of exposure to more types of ACEs on recidivism. A discussion of these findings is offered, along with study limitations and future directions.

Risk Assessment Trajectories of Youth During Juvenile Justice Residential Placement: Examining Risk, Promotive, and “Buffer” Scores

Although the Risk–Needs–Responsivity framework has become the dominant paradigm in criminal and juvenile justice, little empirical attention has been given to the reassessment component of the model. Here, we examine dynamic risk and promotive factor trajectories of 6,442 residential commitment placements to assess differences in progression with respect to risk reduction and promotive enhancement through a buffer score rubric (buffer = promotive − risk). Results indicate that youth progress along different buffer trajectories throughout residential placement. Multinomial models also demonstrate that dynamic, changeable factors are more essential in distinguishing trajectory group membership than demographic or criminal history indicators. Finally, there were significant differences in recidivism rates across trajectories postcompletion, suggesting that improvement in (the rate of change in) buffer scores may account for some of the variation in offending behavior postrelease. Programmatic and policy implications are discussed.

Juvenile animal cruelty and firesetting behaviour.

BACKGROUND There is a view that young people presenting with an animal cruelty and firesetting combination represent a uniquely risky group, but prior work has relied on samples with insufficient power. RESEARCH QUESTION What is the prevalence of the co-occurrence of animal cruelty and firesetting behaviour among young delinquents? What other features correlate with this? METHODS We measured the prevalence of animal cruelty and firesetting among 292,649 juvenile offenders and used rare events logistic regression to examine demographic, criminal, mental health and family histories as correlates. RESULTS The prevalence of animal cruelty was 0.59%, accounting for 1732 young people, and of firesetting 1.56% (n = 4553). The co-occurrence of these behaviours was rare: 0.17% (n = 498), but approximately twice that expected by chance based on the prevalence of each behaviour individually (0.59% × 1.56% = 0.009%). Rates were higher in males, older youths and Whites. Among historical variables, criminal history was the strongest correlate, followed by mental health problems, then familial and individual indicators. CONCLUSIONS As only male gender and being a victim of sexual abuse increased the odds of evidencing both animal cruelty and firesetting behaviour substantially above the odds for each behaviour individually, there thus appears to be little that is unique to the co-occurrence. Our findings suggest that sensitivity to the occurrence of each is the best way forward, with rather familiar assessments and interventions offering some hope of reducing these seriously damaging behaviours. Copyright

The Racial and Gender Differences in the Impact of Adverse Childhood Experiences on Juvenile Residential Placement

Research has demonstrated a relationship between adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and a variety of juvenile offending outcomes. No study to date, however, has examined the relationship between ACEs and juvenile residential placement. The current study utilized a large sample of 4,733 adjudicated juveniles in Florida in order to examine the relationship between ACEs and residential placement across gender and race/ethnicity. For the entire study sample, ACEs significantly increased the odds of residential placement by age 17. For males, ACEs significantly increased the odds of residential placement for Black and Hispanic males but had a null effect on White males. For females, ACEs were predictive of residential placement for Black females but not for White or Hispanic females. Consistent predictors of residential placement across demographic groups included the presence of antisocial peers, substance abuse issues, and anger problems.

Community Disadvantage, Prosocial Bonds, and Juvenile Reoffending A Multilevel Mediation Analysis

Prior efforts suggest that adverse community contexts have the ability to impact juvenile recidivism. However, far less research has examined the indirect effects of community disadvantage on delinquent youth reoffending. As a result, it remains unclear whether several theoretically relevant mechanisms mediate the effects of disadvantage on continued delinquent behavior. Drawing from theoretical models of contextual effects, as well as social control theory, the present study examines whether prosocial bonds are salient mechanisms in the context–recidivism relationship. Using a sample of over 20,000 juvenile offenders, our results indicate that both prosocial relationships and prosocial activities partially mediate the effect of community disadvantage on youth reoffending. Findings from the current study are discussed, along with policy implications and directions for future research in this area.

Prospective Prediction of Juvenile Homicide/Attempted Homicide among Early-Onset Juvenile Offenders

While homicide perpetrated by juveniles is a relatively rare occurrence, between 2010 and 2014, approximately 7%–8% of all murders involved a juvenile offender. Unfortunately, few studies have prospectively examined the predictors of homicide offending, with none examining first-time murder among a sample of adjudicated male and female youth. The current study employed data on 5908 juvenile offenders (70% male, 45% Black) first arrested at the age of 12 or younger to prospectively examine predictors of an arrest for homicide/attempted homicide by the age of 18. Among these early-onset offenders, males, Black youth, those living in households with family members with a history of mental illness, those engaging in self-mutilation, and those with elevated levels of anger/aggression (all measured by age 13) were more likely to be arrested for homicide/attempted homicide by age 18. These findings add to the scant scientific literature on the predictors of homicide, and illustrate potential avenues for intervention.