Kevin X.D. Huang

Staggered price-setting, staggered wage-setting, and business cycle persistence

Abstract Staggered price-setting and staggered wage-setting are commonly viewed as similar mechanisms in generating persistent real effects of monetary shocks. In this paper, we distinguish the two mechanisms in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. We show that, although the dynamic price-setting and wage-setting equations are alike, a key parameter governing persistence is linked to the underlying preferences and technologies in different ways. With reasonable parameter values, the staggered price mechanism by itself is incapable of, while the staggered wage mechanism plays an important role in generating persistence.

Production chains and general equilibrium aggregate dynamics

Abstract Recent empirical studies reveal that monetary shocks can cause persistent fluctuations in aggregate output. In this paper, we propose a mechanism to help generate such persistence. Our dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a vertical input–output structure, with staggered price contracts at each stage of production. Working through the input–output relations and the timing of firms’ pricing decisions, the model generates persistent fluctuations in aggregate output and the observed patterns of price dynamics following a monetary shock. Output responses are more persistent, the greater the number of stages of production, and the larger the share of intermediate inputs. With a sufficient number of stages, the persistence is arbitrarily large if the share of intermediate inputs is one at all but finitely many stages.

Why Does the Cyclical Behavior of Real Wages Change Over Time

This paper seeks to understand the evolution of the cyclical behavior of U.S. real wage rates from the interwar period to the post World War II period using a dynamic general equilibrium model that emphasizes demand-driven business cycle fluctuations. In the model, changes in the cyclical behavior of real wages arise endogenously from the interactions between nominal wage and price rigidities and an evolving input-output structure.

Financial Intermediaries, Markets, and Growth

We build a model in which financial intermediaries provide insurance to households against a liquidity shock. Households can also invest directly on a financial market if they pay a cost. In equilibrium, the ability of intermediaries to share risk is constrained by the market. This can be beneficial because intermediaries invest less in the productive technology when they provide more risk-sharing. Our model predicts that bank-oriented economies should grow slower than more market-oriented economies, which is consistent with some recent empirical evidence. We show that the mix of intermediaries and market that maximizes welfare under a given level of financial development depends on economic fundamentals. We also show the optimal mix of two structurally very similar economies can be very different.

Learning, adaptive expectations, and technology shocks

This study explores the macroeconomic implications of adaptive expectations in a standard real business cycle model. When rational expectations are replaced by adaptive expectations, we show that the self-confirming equilibrium is the same as the steady-state rational expectations equilibrium for all admissible parameters but that dynamics around the steady state are substantially different between the two equilibria. The differences are driven mainly by the dampened wealth effect and the strengthened intertemporal substitution effect, not by the escapes emphasized by Williams (2003). As a result, adaptive expectations can be an important source of frictions that amplify and propagate technology shocks and seem promising for generating plausible labor market dynamics.

Multiple Stages of Processing and the Quantity Anomaly in International Business Cycle Models

We construct a two-country DSGE model with multiple stages of processing and local currency staggered price-setting to study cross-country quantity correlations driven by monetary shocks. The model embodies a mechanism that propagates a monetary surprise in the home country to lower the foreign price level while restraining the home price level from rising too quickly; and, it does so through reducing material costs in terms of the foreign currency unit while dampening the upward movements in the costs in terms of the home currency unit, both in absolute terms and relative to the costs of primary factors. We show that, through this mechanism and a resulting factor substitution effect, the model is able to generate significant cross-country quantity correlations, with correlations in consumption considerably lower than correlations in output, as in the data.

On infinite-horizon minimum-cost hedging under cone constraints

Abstract We analyze a strategy that minimizes the cost of hedging a liability stream in infinite-horizon incomplete security markets with a type of constraint that feasible portfolios form a polyhedral cone. Using an extended Stiemke lemma to construct a series of one-period linear programs and their dual problems, and applying linear programming duality theory to each primal–dual pair and dynamic programming technique on the dual formulation, we show that the infinite-horizon dynamic hedging problem can be solved by solving these mutually independent one-period primal linear programs. Independence implies that solutions to these single-period linear programs can be obtained separately, yet function together as a whole in forming an optimal portfolio strategy to solve the infinite-horizon dynamic hedging problem.

Temptation and self-control: some evidence and applications

This paper studies the empirical relevance of temptation and self-control using household-level data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey. We estimate an infinite-horizon consumption-savings model that allows, but does not require, temptation and self-control in preferences. To help identify the presence of temptation, we exploit an implication of the theory that a tempted individual has a preference for commitment. In the presence of temptation, the cross-sectional distribution of the wealth-consumption ratio, in addition to that of consumption growth, becomes a determinant of the asset-pricing kernel, and the importance of this additional pricing factor depends on the strength of temptation. The estimates that we obtain provide statistical evidence supporting the presence of temptation. Based on our estimates, we explore some quantitative implications of this class of preferences on equity premium and on the welfare cost of business cycles.

Why Do Americans Spend so Much More on Health Care than Europeans? A General Equilibrium Macroeconomic Analysis

Empirical evidence suggests that both leisure time and medical care are important for maintaining health. We develop a general equilibrium macroeconomic model in which taxation is a key determinant of the composition of these two inputs in the endogenous accumulation of health capital. In our model, higher taxes lead to using relatively more leisure time and less medical care in maintaining health. We find that the difference in taxation can account for a large fraction of the difference in health expenditure-GDP ratio and almost all of the difference in time input for health production between the US and Europe.

Increasing returns and unsynchronized wage adjustment in sunspot models of the business cycle

A challenge to models of equilibrium indeterminacy based on increasing returns is that required increasing returns for generating indeterminacy can be implausibly large and rise quickly with the relative risk aversion in labor. We show that unsynchronized wage adjustment via a relative wage effect can both lower the required degree of increasing returns for indeterminacy to a plausible level and make it invariant to the relative risk aversion in labor. Consequently, indeterminacy and sunspot-driven fluctuations can emerge for plausible increasing returns regardless of the relative risk aversion in labor. Our model generates reasonable dynamics in terms of matching the business cycle, and sunspot shocks become more important with labor market friction.