Keyan Fang

Moisture stress of a hydrological year on tree growth in the Tibetan Plateau and surroundings

Investigations of climate–growth interactions can shed light on the response of forest growth to climate change and the dendroclimatic reconstructions. However, most existing studies in the climatically important Tibetan Plateau (TP) and surrouding regions focus on linear growth responses to environmental variation. Herein we investigated both the linear and the nonlinear climate–growth interactions for 152 tree-ring chronologies in the TP and vicinity. We introduced the boosted regression tree (BRT) technique to study the nonlinear climate–growth relationships by pooling several sites with similar climate–growth relationships to mitigate potential biases due to the shortness of the instrumental records. Across most of the TP and surroundings, tree growth is stressed by drought. The warming induced drought has been evidenced by the strong interactions between temperature and precipitation in the BRT analyses. The drought stress on forest growth is particularly conspicuous for a hydrological year over much of the Northern TP and surroundings. The BRT analyses indicate the compensation effect of moisture prior to the growing season for the moisture deficit in the early growing season in May to July, when most of the ring-width formation occurs.

Response of Pinus taiwanensis growth to climate changes at its southern limit of Daiyun Mountain, mainland China Fujian Province

The Pinus taiwanensis trees of a Chinese endemic species form pure forests at infertile sites in humid subtropical China, which can aid soil reservation and ecological resiliency at such sites. Herein, we used dendrochronological methods to investigate the growth patterns and their relationship with climate by analyzing 158 cores of 79 P. taiwanensis trees at 4 sites in their southernmost distribution in mainland China at Daiyun Mountain in Fujian Province. Tree growths at sites with favorable conditions generally showed an age-related growth trend, which decreased from approximately 5 mm to 0.5 mm in about a century. Trees in moderately stressed environments established high growth in their juvenile periods but were highly susceptible to environmental stresses such as a sharp growth decline in the 1990s. The temperature in February and the moisture in July are the major limiting factors for most of the tree growths, except for a few extremely stressed P. taiwanensis trees. The growth of the dwarf P. taiwanensis trees, with all ring diameters of the first 20 years less than 4 mm, is mainly limited by the dry climate in May. Under the potential future warming trend, drought stress can be particularly threatening to these dwarf P. taiwanensis trees, which are likely to be the germplasm resources for this species in this region.

Abrupt vegetation shifts caused by gradual climate changes in central Asia during the Holocene

Understanding the response of ecosystems to past climate is critical for evaluating the impacts of future climate changes. A large-scale abrupt shift of vegetation in response to the Holocene gradual climate changes has been well documented for the Sahara-Sahel ecosystem. Whether such a non-linear response is of universal significance remains to be further addressed. Here, we examine the vegetation-climate relationships in central Asia based on a compilation of 38 high-quality pollen records. The results show that the Holocene vegetation experienced two major abrupt shifts, one in the early Holocene (Shift I, establishing shift) and another in the late Holocene (Shift II, collapsing shift), while the mid-Holocene vegetation remained rather stable. The timings of these shifts in different regions are asynchronous, which are not readily linkable with any known abrupt climate shifts, but are highly correlated with the local rainfalls. These new findings suggest that the observed vegetation shifts are attributable to the threshold effects of the orbital-induced gradual climate changes. During the early Holocene, the orbital-induced precipitation increase would have first reached the threshold for vegetation “establishment” for moister areas, but significantly later for drier areas. In contrast, the orbital-induced precipitation decrease during the late Holocene would have first reached the threshold, and led to the vegetation “collapse” for drier areas, but delayed for moister areas. The well-known 4.2 kyr BP drought event and human intervention would have also helped the vegetation collapses at some sites. These interpretations are strongly supported by our surface pollen-climate analyses and ecosystem simulations. These results also imply that future climate changes may cause abrupt changes in the dry ecosystem once the threshold is reached.

Drought variation of western Chinese Loess Plateau since 1568 and its linkages with droughts in western North America

Understanding long-term drought variations in the past can help to evaluate ongoing and future hydroclimate change in the arid western Chinese Loess Plateau (WCLP), a region with increasing demand for water resources due to the increasing population and socioeconomic activities. Here we present a new tree-ring chronology inform the WCLP, which shows coherent interannual variations with tree-ring chronologies from 7 neighboring areas across the WCLP, suggesting a common regional climate control over tree growth. However, considerable differences are observed among their interdecadal variations, which are likely due to growth disturbances at interdecadal timescales. To deal with this issue, we use a frequency based method to develop a composite tree-ring chronology from 401 tree-ring series from these 8 sites, which shows more pronounced interdecadal variability than a chronology developed using traditional methods. The composite tree-ring chronology is used to reconstruct the annual precipitation from previous August to current July from 1568 to 2012, extending about 50 years longer than the previous longest tree-ring reconstruction from the region. The driest epoch of our reconstruction is found in the 1920s–1930s, which matches well with droughts recorded in historical documents. Over the past four centuries, a strong resemblance between drought variability in the WCLP and western North America (WNA) is evident on multidecadal timescales, but this relationship breaks down on timescales shorter than about 50 years.

Nonlinear characteristics of hydroclimate variability in the mid-latitude Asia over the past seven centuries

Hydroclimate variations in the mid-latitude Asia have received considerable attention due to its significance for the regional ecosystem and livelihood, while its nonlinear characteristics over the past centuries are not fully understood yet. Hydroclimate patterns for the mid-latitude Asia are classified into eastern and western modes based on a network of the reconstructed Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) of 197 grids spanning since 1300. The hydroclimate variations of western mode are more complex than that of eastern mode based on the Higuchi’s fractal dimension (HFD) analysis, which may be related to the complex atmospheric circulation patterns that dominate them. The relationships of the hydroclimate variations between western and eastern modes at different time scales extracted by ensemble empirical mode decomposition method (EEMD) are detected. The anti-phase relationship of the hydroclimatic variations between western and eastern modes at the interdecadal variations occurs during the periods with the enhanced El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variance. Similarly, the multidecadal hydroclimate variations are anti-phase when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is in its warm phases. The inverse relationship between western and eastern modes is stable for the centennial scale.

Climate-Driven Synchronized Growth of Alpine Trees in the Southeast Tibetan Plateau

Knowledge about the spatiotemporal tree growth variability and its associations with climate provides key insights into forest dynamics under future scenarios of climate change. We synthesized 17 tree-ring width chronologies from four tree species at the high-elevation sites in the southeast Tibetan Plateau (SETP) to study the regional tree growth variability and climate-growth relationships. Despite of diverse habitats and different physiological characteristics of these species, these tree-ring chronologies shared a significant common variance in SETP. An unprecedented increase in the shared variance is found along the latter half of the 20th century, coinciding with the enhancement of the frequency of extreme rings among chronologies. It is found that minimum winter temperature tends to be the dominant climate for trees in this region. The site-specific responses in cold (1965–1980) and warm (1990–2005) intervals by means of Fuzzy Cmeans (FCM) clustering reveal that the remarkable enhancement of growth synchrony among trees mainly occur in warm conditions. This is different from previous findings indicating that increased consistence among temperature sensitive tree rings in cold periods. This may be related to the reduced temperature sensitivity of regional tree growth as winter minimum temperature is lower than a certain threshold, which is in agreement with the “principle of ecological amplitude”. In addition, it is worth noting that precipitation in June have started to restrain the tree growth since the beginning of the 1980s, which is possibly an important contributor for synchronized growth among trees in SETP.

An interdecadal climate dipole between Northeast Asia and Antarctica over the past five centuries

Climate models emphasize the need to investigate inter-hemispheric climatic interactions. However, these models often underestimate the inter-hemispheric differences in climate change. With the wide application of reanalysis data since 1948, we identified a dipole pattern between the geopotential heights (GPHs) in Northeast Asia and Antarctica on the interdecadal scale in boreal summer. This Northeast Asia/Antarctica (NAA) dipole pattern is not conspicuous on the interannual scale, probably in that the interannual inter-hemispheric climate interaction is masked by strong interannual signals in the tropics associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Unfortunately, the instrumental records are not sufficiently long-lasting to detect the interdecadal variability of the NAA. We thus reconstructed GPHs since 1565, making using the proxy records mostly from tree rings in Northeast Asia and ice cores from Antarctica. The strength of the NAA is time-varying and it is most conspicuous in the eighteenth century and after the late twentieth century. The strength of the NAA matches well with the variations of the solar radiation and tends to increase in along with its enhancement. In boreal summer, enhanced heating associated with high solar radiation in the Northern Hemisphere drives more air masses from the South to the North. This inter-hemispheric interaction is particularly strong in East Asia as a result of the Asian summer monsoon. Northeast Asia and Antarctica appear to be the key regions responsible for inter-hemispheric interactions on the interdecadal scale in boreal summer since they are respectively located at the front and the end of this inter-hemispheric trajectory.