Keyvan Malek

BioEarth: Envisioning and developing a new regional earth system model to inform natural and agricultural resource management

As managers of agricultural and natural resources are confronted with uncertainties in global change impacts, the complexities associated with the interconnected cycling of nitrogen, carbon, and water present daunting management challenges. Existing models provide detailed information on specific sub-systems (e.g., land, air, water, and economics). An increasing awareness of the unintended consequences of management decisions resulting from interconnectedness of these sub-systems, however, necessitates coupled regional earth system models (EaSMs). Decision makers’ needs and priorities can be integrated into the model design and development processes to enhance decision-making relevance and “usability” of EaSMs. BioEarth is a research initiative currently under development with a focus on the U.S. Pacific Northwest region that explores the coupling of multiple stand-alone EaSMs to generate usable information for resource decision-making. Direct engagement between model developers and non-academic stakeholders involved in resource and environmental management decisions throughout the model development process is a critical component of this effort. BioEarth utilizes a bottom-up approach for its land surface model that preserves fine spatial-scale sensitivities and lateral hydrologic connectivity, which makes it unique among many regional EaSMs. This paper describes the BioEarth initiative and highlights opportunities and challenges associated with coupling multiple stand-alone models to generate usable information for agricultural and natural resource decision-making.

Benefit-Cost Analysis of Integrated Water Resource Management: Accounting for Interdependence in the Yakima Basin Integrated Plan†

Integrated water resource management (IWRM) requires accounting for many interrelated facets of water systems, water uses and stakeholders, and water management activities. The consequence is that project analysis must account for the nonseparability among the component parts of IWRM plans. This article presents a benefit-cost (B-C) analysis of a set of projects included in the Yakima Basin Integrated Plan proposed for the Yakima Basin in south-central Washington State. The analysis accounts for interdependence among proposed water storage projects and between water storage and water market development in the context of historical and more adverse projected future climate scenarios. Focusing on irrigation benefits from storage, we show that the value of a given proposed storage project is lower when other proposed storage projects in the basin are implemented, and when water markets are functioning effectively. We find that none of the water storage projects satisfy a B-C criterion, and that assuring proposed instream flow augmentation is less expensive by purchasing senior diversion rights than relying on new storage to provide it.

Implications of water management representations for watershed hydrologic modeling in the Yakima River Basin

The present work assesses the impact of (i) reservoir management and (ii) agriculturalwater withdrawn on the hydrologic behavior of the Yakima River Basin (YRB). The Authors provide a convincing and well documented motivation supporting the present study, due to the (not so well explored) role that reservoir management and agricultural activities could have on the hydrological dynamics. I think that the paper is worth for publication after some minor revisions.

Incorporating Social System Dynamics in the Columbia River Basin: Food-Energy-Water Resilience and Sustainability Modeling in the Yakima River Basin

In the face of climate change, achieving resilience of desirable aspects of food-energy-water (FEW) systems already strained by competing multi-scalar social objectives requires interdisciplinary approaches. This study is part of a larger effort exploring “Innovations in the Food-Energy-Water Nexus (INFEWS)” in the Columbia River Basin (CRB) through coordinated modeling and simulated management scenarios. Here, we focus on a case study and conceptual mapping of the Yakima River Basin (YRB), a sub-basin of the CRB. Previous research on FEW system management and resilience includes some attention to social dynamics (e.g., economic and governance systems); however, more attention to social drivers and outcomes is needed. Our goals are to identify several underutilized ways to incorporate social science perspectives into FEW nexus research and to explore how this interdisciplinary endeavor alters how we assess innovations and resilience in FEW systems. First, we investigate insights on FEW nexus resilience from the social sciences. Next, we delineate strategies for further incorporation of social considerations into FEW nexus research, including the use of social science perspectives and frameworks such as socio-ecological resilience and community capitals. Then, we examine a case study of the YRB, focusing on the historical development of the FEW nexus and innovations. We find that a resilience focus applied to the FEW nexus can inadvertently emphasize a status quo imposed by those already in power. Incorporating perspectives from the social sciences, which highlight issues related to inequality, power, and social justice, can address these shortcomings and inform future innovations. Finally, we use causal loop diagrams to explore the role of the social in the FEW nexus, and we suggest ways to incorporate social aspects into an existing stock and flow object-oriented modeling system. This project represents a starting point for a continued research agenda that incorporates social dynamics into FEW system resilience modeling and management in the CRB.