Khalid Siddig

FROM BILATERAL TRADE TO MULTILATERAL PRESSURE: A SCENARIO OF EUROPEAN UNION RELATIONS WITH SUDAN

This paper investigates the economic consequences of a scenario in which the European Union (EU) imposes economic sanctions on Sudan. The idea of the paper is motivated by the deteriorating relations between Sudan and the EU arising from the devastating conflicts in Darfur region and related implications involving the International Criminal Court (ICC). Another factor supporting the idea is the U.S. encouragement of multilateral pressure on the country to change the behavior of the government. The global CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model of GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) and its Africa Database is employed in this paper. The simulation bans importation into the EU from Sudan as well as exportation to Sudan from the EU. The results suggest that both income and expenditure of the Sudanese GDP will decline due to sanctions. The trade balance will witness a surplus due to the big decline in the country’s imports, as all imports will fall. However, the major impact is coming from the decreasing EU-sourced imports like light manufacturing, petroleum-coal products, and heavy manufacturing, which represent big shares in the total Sudanese import value. While Sudan is the clear loser, the results show that the East Asian countries, led by China, will gain in this situation. Most of Sudanese trade with the EU seems to be shifting to these countries. However, the ‘Rest of Africa’ region does not have any welfare losses, while it has gains in some sectors. Domestic output in MENA, Egypt, Kenya, and Ethiopia in some sectors will fall due to the EU sanctions on Sudan, reflecting the regional dimension that sanctions can have.

Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Northern Kordofan State of Sudan: A Remotely Sensed Data Analysis

The North Kordofan region is semiarid and characterized by recurrent episodes of drought which led to increasing desertification. The agricultural and forest production in North Kordofan State (NKS), however, is adversely hampered by climate change, particularly the unreliable and fluctuated rainfall and desertification. Hence, it is expected that the land use/land cover (LULC) classes in the state would have dramatically changed during past decades. This study tries to detect the changes in LULC in NKS during the period between 1973 and 2001. We assess the desertification process using vegetation cover as an indicator. We used remotely sensed data from Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS; captured in 1973) and enhanced thematic mapper plus (ETM+; captured in 2001) to detect LULC conversion dynamics. Pre- and postclassification change detection methods were compared. A supervised image classification (maximum likelihood) is then performed to identify LULC classes. Ten major land cover classes are discriminated. These are forests, farms on sand, farms on clay, fallows on sand, fallows on clay, woodlands, mixed woodlands, grasslands, burnt/wetlands, and natural water bodies. The results revealed that using a preclassification image differencing procedure, positive (9.66 and 6.70 % of total area when near-infrared (NIR) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were used, respectively), negative (9.77 and 6.62 % of total area when NIR and NDVI were used, respectively), and no (80.57 and 86.68 % of total area when NIR and NDVI were used, respectively) vegetation changes were observed in the study area during the period 1973–2001. The study also indicates a negative change trend when principal component analysis (PCA) and change vector analysis (CVA) methods are employed. With respect to the postclassification method, the results show significant conversions in LULC classes, where new classes such as farms and fallows on clay soils were introduced in 2001, while woodlands in 1973 were completely shifted to farm on sand, farm on clay, fallow on sand, fallow on clay, grassland, and mixed woodland in 2001. The study demonstrates different signs of desertification in the study area related to change patterns in LULC classes, such as increase in farms on sand and clay soils at the expense of wood and grasslands. It is concluded that the vegetation cover in North Kordofan was negatively changed due to socioeconomic factors and desertification in the area was the main sign of such negative LULC changes.

Impacts on poverty of removing fuel import subsidies in Nigeria

The petroleum sector contributes substantially to the Nigerian economy; however, the potential benefits are diminished because of the existence of significant subsidies on imports of petroleum products. Subsidies on imported petroleum products are considered to be an important instrument for keeping fuel prices, and hence the cost of living, low. The costs of these subsidies, however, have risen dramatically in recent years along with increased volatility in world petroleum and petroleum product prices and increased illegal exportation of subsidized petroleum products into neighboring countries. Removing the subsidy on fuel is one of the most contentious socioeconomic policy issues in Nigeria today. In this paper, an economy-wide framework is used to identify the impact of removing the fuel subsidy on the Nigerian economy and investigate how alternative policies might be used to meet socioeconomic objectives related to fuel subsidies. The results show that although a reduction in the subsidy generally results in an increase in Nigeria’s gross domestic product, it can have a detrimental impact on household income, and in particular on poor households. Accompanying the subsidy reduction with income transfers aimed at poor households or domestic production of petroleum products can alleviate the negative impacts on household income.