Kholoud Porter

Changes in the risk of death after HIV seroconversion compared with mortality in the general population

CONTEXT Mortality among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals has decreased dramatically in countries with good access to treatment and may now be close to mortality in the general uninfected population. OBJECTIVE To evaluate changes in the mortality gap between HIV-infected individuals and the general uninfected population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND POPULATION Mortality following HIV seroconversion in a large multinational collaboration of HIV seroconverter cohorts (CASCADE) was compared with expected mortality, calculated by applying general population death rates matched on demographic factors. A Poisson-based model adjusted for duration of infection was constructed to assess changes over calendar time in the excess mortality among HIV-infected individuals. Data pooled in September 2007 were analyzed in March 2008, covering years at risk 1981-2006. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Excess mortality among HIV-infected individuals compared with that of the general uninfected population. RESULTS Of 16,534 individuals with median duration of follow-up of 6.3 years (range, 1 day to 23.8 years), 2571 died, compared with 235 deaths expected in an equivalent general population cohort. The excess mortality rate (per 1000 person-years) decreased from 40.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 38.5-43.0; 1275.9 excess deaths in 31,302 person-years) before the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (pre-1996) to 6.1 (95% CI, 4.8-7.4; 89.6 excess deaths in 14,703 person-years) in 2004-2006 (adjusted excess hazard ratio, 0.05 [95% CI, 0.03-0.09] for 2004-2006 vs pre-1996). By 2004-2006, no excess mortality was observed in the first 5 years following HIV seroconversion among those infected sexually, though a cumulative excess probability of death remained over the longer term (4.8% [95% CI, 2.5%-8.6%] in the first 10 years among those aged 15-24 years). CONCLUSIONS Mortality rates for HIV-infected persons have become much closer to general mortality rates since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy. In industrialized countries, persons infected sexually with HIV now appear to experience mortality rates similar to those of the general population in the first 5 years following infection, though a mortality excess remains as duration of HIV infection lengthens.

Effect of transmitted drug resistance on virological and immunological response to initial combination antiretroviral therapy for HIV (EuroCoord-CHAIN joint project): a European multicohort study

BACKGROUND The effect of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) on first-line combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) for HIV-1 needs further study to inform choice of optimum drug regimens. We investigated the effect of TDR on outcome in the first year of cART within a large European collaboration. METHODS HIV-infected patients of any age were included if they started cART (at least three antiretroviral drugs) for the first time after Jan 1, 1998, and were antiretroviral naive and had at least one sample for a genotypic test taken before the start of cART. We used the WHO drug resistance list and the Stanford algorithm to classify patients into three resistance categories: no TDR, at least one mutation and fully-active cART, or at least one mutation and resistant to at least one prescribed drug. Virological failure was defined as time to the first of two consecutive viral load measurements over 500 copies per mL after 6 months of therapy. FINDINGS Of 10,056 patients from 25 cohorts, 9102 (90·5%) had HIV without TDR, 475 (4·7%) had at least one mutation but received fully-active cART, and 479 (4·8%) had at least one mutation and resistance to at least one drug. Cumulative Kaplan-Meier estimates for virological failure at 12 months were 4·2% (95% CI 3·8-4·7) for patients in the no TDR group, 4·7% (2·9-7·5) for those in the TDR and fully-active cART group, and 15·1% (11·9-19·0) for those in the TDR and resistant group (log-rank p<0·0001). The hazard ratio for the difference in virological failure between patients with TDR and resistance to at least one drug and those without TDR was 3·13 (95% CI 2·33-4·20, p<0·0001). The hazard ratio for the difference between patients with TDR receiving fully-active cART and patients without TDR was 1·47 (95% CI 0·19-2·38, p=0·12). In stratified analysis, the hazard ratio for the risk of virological failure in patients with TDR who received fully-active cART that included a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) compared with those without TDR was 2·0 (95% CI 0·9-4·7, p=0·093). INTERPRETATION These findings confirm present treatment guidelines for HIV, which state that the initial treatment choice should be based on resistance testing in treatment-naive patients. FUNDING European Communitys Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 and Gilead.

Impact of late diagnosis and treatment on life expectancy in people with HIV-1: UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (UK CHIC) Study

Objectives To estimate life expectancy for people with HIV undergoing treatment compared with life expectancy in the general population and to assess the impact on life expectancy of late treatment, defined as CD4 count <200 cells/mm3 at start of antiretroviral therapy. Design Cohort study. Setting Outpatient HIV clinics throughout the United Kingdom. Population Adult patients from the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (UK CHIC) Study with CD4 count ≤350 cells/mm3 at start of antiretroviral therapy in 1996-2008. Main outcome measures Life expectancy at the exact age of 20 (the average additional years that will be lived by a person after age 20), according to the cross sectional age specific mortality rates during the study period. Results 1248 of 17 661 eligible patients died during 91 203 person years’ follow-up. Life expectancy (standard error) at exact age 20 increased from 30.0 (1.2) to 45.8 (1.7) years from 1996-9 to 2006-8. Life expectancy was 39.5 (0.45) for male patients and 50.2 (0.45) years for female patients compared with 57.8 and 61.6 years for men and women in the general population (1996-2006). Starting antiretroviral therapy later than guidelines suggest resulted in up to 15 years’ loss of life: at age 20, life expectancy was 37.9 (1.3), 41.0 (2.2), and 53.4 (1.2) years in those starting antiretroviral therapy with CD4 count <100, 100-199, and 200-350 cells/mm3, respectively. Conclusions Life expectancy in people treated for HIV infection has increased by over 15 years during 1996-2008, but is still about 13 years less than that of the UK population. The higher life expectancy in women is magnified in those with HIV. Earlier diagnosis and subsequent timely treatment with antiretroviral therapy might increase life expectancy.

Effective therapy has altered the spectrum of cause-specific mortality following HIV seroconversion.

Introduction:Although HAART has led to a reduction in overall mortality among HIV-infected individuals, its impact on death from specific causes is unknown. Methods:Twenty-two cohorts of HIV-infected individuals with known dates of seroconversion are pooled in the CASCADE collaboration. Causes of death (COD) were categorized into three AIDS-related and seven non-AIDS-related causes. The unknown causes were assigned a separate category. The cumulative incidence for each COD was calculated in the presence of the other competing COD, for the pre-HAART and HAART eras. A multivariate regression analyses for the cumulative rate of progression to the different COD was performed. Results:A total of 1938 of 7680 HIV-seroconverters died. Pre-HAART, AIDS opportunistic infections (OI) was the most common COD, followed by unknown and HIV/AIDS-unspecified. In the HAART era, the cumulative incidence for all AIDS-related COD decreased, OI remaining the most important. Large reductions in death due to other infections and organ failure were seen. Cumulative death risk decreased in the HAART era for most causes. The effect of HAART was not the same for all risk groups. The cumulative risk of death from AIDS-related malignancies, OI and non-AIDS-related malignancies decreased significantly among homosexual men (MSM), whereas the risk of dying from (un)-intentional death increased significantly among injecting drug users (IDU). A non-significant increase in hepatitis/liver-related death was seen in MSM, IDU and haemophiliacs. Conclusion:Overall and cause specific mortality decreased following the introduction of HAART. OI remain the most common COD in the HAART era, suggesting that AIDS-related events will continue to be important in the future. Future trends in COD should be monitored using standardized guidelines.

Non-AIDS-defining deaths and immunodeficiency in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy.

Objective:To assess whether immunodeficiency is associated with the most frequent non-AIDS-defining causes of death in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Design:Observational multicentre cohorts. Methods:Twenty-three cohorts of adults with estimated dates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seroconversion were considered. Patients were seroconverters followed within the cART era. Measurements were latest CD4, nadir CD4 and time spent with CD4 cell count less than 350 cells/μl. Outcomes were specific causes of death using a standardized classification. Results:Among 9858 patients (71 230 person-years follow-up), 597 died, 333 (55.7%) from non-AIDS-defining causes. Non-AIDS-defining infection, liver disease, non-AIDS-defining malignancy and cardiovascular disease accounted for 53% of non-AIDS deaths. For each 100 cells/μl increment in the latest CD4 cell count, we found a 64% (95% confidence interval 58–69%) reduction in risk of death from AIDS-defining causes and significant reductions in death from non-AIDS infections (32, 18–44%), end-stage liver disease (33, 18–46%) and non-AIDS malignancies (34, 21–45%). Non-AIDS-defining causes of death were also associated with nadir CD4 while being cART-naive or duration of exposure to immunosuppression. No relationship between risk of death from cardiovascular disease and CD4 cell count was found though there was a raised risk associated with elevated HIV RNA. Conclusion:In the cART era, the most frequent non-AIDS-defining causes of death are associated with immunodeficiency, only cardiovascular disease was associated with high viral replication. Avoiding profound and mild immunodeficiency, through earlier initiation of cART, may impact on morbidity and mortality of HIV-infected patients.

Short-course antiretroviral therapy in primary HIV infection.

BACKGROUND Short-course antiretroviral therapy (ART) in primary human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection may delay disease progression but has not been adequately evaluated. METHODS We randomly assigned adults with primary HIV infection to ART for 48 weeks, ART for 12 weeks, or no ART (standard of care), with treatment initiated within 6 months after seroconversion. The primary end point was a CD4+ count of less than 350 cells per cubic millimeter or long-term ART initiation. RESULTS A total of 366 participants (60% men) underwent randomization to 48-week ART (123 participants), 12-week ART (120), or standard care (123), with an average follow-up of 4.2 years. The primary end point was reached in 50% of the 48-week ART group, as compared with 61% in each of the 12-week ART and standard-care groups. The average hazard ratio was 0.63 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.45 to 0.90; P=0.01) for 48-week ART as compared with standard care and was 0.93 (95% CI, 0.67 to 1.29; P=0.67) for 12-week ART as compared with standard care. The proportion of participants who had a CD4+ count of less than 350 cells per cubic millimeter was 28% in the 48-week ART group, 40% in the 12-week group, and 40% in the standard-care group. Corresponding values for long-term ART initiation were 22%, 21%, and 22%. The median time to the primary end point was 65 weeks (95% CI, 17 to 114) longer with 48-week ART than with standard care. Post hoc analysis identified a trend toward a greater interval between ART initiation and the primary end point the closer that ART was initiated to estimated seroconversion (P=0.09), and 48-week ART conferred a reduction in the HIV RNA level of 0.44 log(10) copies per milliliter (95% CI, 0.25 to 0.64) 36 weeks after the completion of short-course therapy. There were no significant between-group differences in the incidence of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, death, or serious adverse events. CONCLUSIONS A 48-week course of ART in patients with primary HIV infection delayed disease progression, although not significantly longer than the duration of the treatment. There was no evidence of adverse effects of ART interruption on the clinical outcome. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust; SPARTAC Controlled-Trials.com number, ISRCTN76742797, and EudraCT number, 2004-000446-20.).

Changes in the incidence and predictors of human immunodeficiency virus-associated dementia in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy.

Though effective anti–human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) therapies are now available, they have variable penetration into the brain. We therefore aimed to assess changes over calendar time in the risk for HIV‐associated dementia (HIV‐D), and factors associated with HIV‐D risk.

The hepatitis C epidemic among HIV-positive MSM: incidence estimates from 1990 to 2007

Background:Outbreaks of acute hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among HIV-infected MSM have been described since 2000. However, phylogenetic analysis suggests that the spread of HCV started around 1996. We estimated the incidence of HCV in HIV-infected MSM with well estimated dates of HIV seroconversion from 1990 to 2007. Methods:Data from 12 cohorts within the Concerted Action on SeroConversion to AIDS and Death in Europe (CASCADE) Collaboration were used. HCV incidence was estimated using standard incidence methods and methods for interval-censored data. We accounted for the fact that routine HCV data collection in each cohort started in different calendar years. Results:Of 4724 MSM, 3014 had an HCV test result and were included. Of these, 124 (4%) had only positive HCV test results, 2798 (93%) had only negative results and 92 (3%) had both. In 1990, HCV incidence ranged from 0.9 to 2.2 per 1000 person-years, depending on the analysis strategy used. HCV incidence increased up to 1995 when it was estimated to range between 5.5 and 8.1 per 1000 person-years. From 2002 onwards, it increased substantially to values between 16.8 and 30.0 per 1000 person-years in 2005 and between 23.4 and 51.1 per 1000 person-years in 2007. Conclusion:Our data support phylodynamic findings that HCV incidence had already increased among HIV-infected MSM from the mid-1990s. However, the main expansion of the HCV epidemic started after 2002. Incidence estimates obtained from cohort studies may help identify changes in the spread of important infections earlier and should guide routine testing policies to minimize further disease burden.

Time From Human Immunodeficiency Virus Seroconversion to Reaching CD4+ Cell Count Thresholds <200, <350, and <500 Cells/mm3: Assessment of Need Following Changes in Treatment Guidelines

BACKGROUND Recent updates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment guidelines have raised the CD4+ cell count thresholds for antiretroviral therapy initiation from 350 to 500 cells/mm(3) in the United States and from 200 to 350 cells/mm³ in mid- and low-income countries. Robust data of time from HIV seroconversion to CD4+ cell counts of 200, 350, and 500 cells/mm³ are lacking but are needed to inform health care planners of the likely impact and cost effectiveness of these and possible future changes in CD4+ cell count initiation threshold. METHODS Using Concerted Action on Seroconversion to AIDS and Death in Europe data from individuals with well-estimated dates of HIV seroconversion, we fitted mixed models on the square root of CD4+ cell counts measured before combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) initiation. Restricting analyses to adults (age >16 years), we predicted time between seroconversion and CD4+ cell count <200, <350, and <500 cells/mm³ as well as CD4+ cell count distribution and proportions reaching these thresholds at 1, 2, and 5 years after seroconversion. RESULTS Median (interquartile range [IQR]) follow-up for the 18495 eligible individuals from seroconversion while cART-free was 3.7 years (1.5, 7). Most of the subjects were male (78%), had a median age at seroconversion of 30 years (IQR, 25-37 years), and were infected through sex between men (55%). Estimated median times (95% confidence interval [CI]) from seroconversion to CD4+ cell count <500, <350, and <200 cells/mm(3) were 1.19 (95% CI, 1.12-1.26), 4.19 (95% CI, 4.09-4.28), and 7.93 (95% CI, 7.76-8.09) years, respectively. Almost half of infected individuals would require treatment within 1 year of seroconversion for guidelines recommending its initiation at 500 cells/mm³, compared with 26% and 9% for guidelines recommending initiation at 350 and 200 cells/mm³, respectively. CONCLUSIONS These data suggest substantial increases in the number of individuals who require treatment and call for early HIV testing.

Timing of HAART initiation and clinical outcomes in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 seroconverters

BACKGROUND To estimate the clinical benefit of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) initiation vs deferral in a given month in patients with CD4 cell counts less than 800/μL. METHODS In this observational cohort study of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 seroconverters from CASCADE (Concerted Action on SeroConversion to AIDS and Death in Europe), we constructed monthly sequential nested subcohorts between January 1996 and May 2009, including all eligible HAART-naive, AIDS-free individuals with a CD4 cell count less than 800/μL. The primary outcome was time to AIDS or death in those who initiated HAART in the baseline month compared with those who did not, pooled across subcohorts and stratified by CD4 cell count. Using inverse probability-of-treatment weighted survival curves and Cox proportional hazards regression models, we estimated the absolute and relative effects of treatment with robust 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS Of 9455 patients with 52,268 person-years of follow-up, 812 (8.6%) developed AIDS and 544 (5.8%) died. In CD4 cell count strata of 200 to 349, 350 to 499, and 500 to 799/μL, HAART initiation was associated with adjusted hazard ratios (95% CIs) for AIDS/death of 0.59 (0.43-0.81), 0.75 (0.49-1.14), and 1.10 (0.67-1.79), respectively. In the analysis of all-cause mortality, HAART initiation was associated with adjusted hazard ratios (95% CIs) of 0.71 (0.44-1.15), 0.51 (0.33-0.80), and 1.02 (0.49-2.12), respectively. Numbers needed to treat (95% CIs) to prevent 1 AIDS event or death within 3 years were 21 (14-38) and 34 (20-115) in CD4 cell count strata of 200 to 349 and 350 to 499/μL, respectively. CONCLUSION Compared with deferring in a given month, HAART initiation at CD4 cell counts less than 500/μL (but not 500-799/μL) was associated with slower disease progression.