Ki-Su Shin

A study on Application of Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction for Aircraft Structures using the PoF based on Bayesian Approach

The probabilistic fatigue life analysis is one of the common methods to account the uncertainty of parameters on the structural failure. Frequently, the Bayesian approach has been demonstrated as a proper method to show the uncertainty of parameters. In this work, the application of probabilistic fatigue life prediction method for the aircraft structure was studied. This effort was conducted by using the PoF(Probability of Failure) based on Bayesian approach. Furthermore, numerical example was carried out to confirm the validation of the suggested approach. In conclusion, it was shown that the Bayesian approach can calculate the probabilistic fatigue lives and the quantitative value of PoF effectively for the aircraft structural component. Moreover the calculated probabilistic fatigue lives can be utilized to determine the optimized inspection period of aircraft structures.

A Study on the Modeling of PoF Estimation for Probabilistic Risk Assessment based on Bayesian Method

To predict the probabilistic service life, statistical factors should be included to consider the uncertainty of parameters. Generally the probabilistic analysis is one of the common methods to account the uncertainty of parameters on the structural failure. In order to apply probabilistic analysis on the deterministic life analysis, it would be necessary to introduce Probability of Failure(PoF) and conduct risk assessment. In this work, we have studied probabilistic risk assessment of aircraft structures by using PoF approach. To achieve this goal, the Bayesian method was utilized to model PoF estimation since this method is known as the proper method to express the uncertainty of parameters. A series of proof tests were also conducted in order to verify the result of PoF estimation. The results from this efforts showed that the PoF estimation model can calculate quantitatively the value of PoF. Furthermore effectiveness of risk assessment approach for the aircraft structures was also demonstrated.

The effect on fatigue life for dynamic behavior of external fuel tank horizontal fin

Recently, there were significantly increased cracks failure for external fuel tank horizontal fin of F-5 aircraft. In this paper, the dynamic behavior of horizontal fin was to quantitate by using Finite Element Method. To achieve this goal, the fatigue analysis for time and frequeucy domain has been performed by using the dynamic load spectrum of speed brake. In conclusion, it was proved that fatigue life of the horizontal fin was reduced by the influence of dynamic behavior.