Kim Robert Lisø

An approach to impact assessments of buildings in a changing climate

Future climate change caused by global warming could have dramatic consequences for the built environment. An approach is presented to understand and assess these impacts on the Norwegian building stock in a changing climate. The approach is tested using calculations for the decay potential in timber structures (possessing wood cladding, timber frames or both). First, building data and climate data are compiled in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Second, the computer model calculates the number of buildings that could be affected by a particular climate parameter for historical climate data (1961–1990) and a future climate scenario (2071–2100). The results show that today approximately 615 000 buildings are situated in areas with a high potential risk of rot-decay. In 2100 this number could increase to roughly 2.4 million. The large current amount of wooden buildings and a high number of building defects indicates that future new and refurbished buildings need to be built more robustly to meet the future impacts of climate change. Other climate parameters, e.g. sea level rise, changes in permafrost, the risk of frost decay, temperature change and changes in the amount of wet winter precipitation – are under investigation for their effect on the Norwegian building stock. Les changements climatiques futurs causés par le réchauffement planétaire pourraient avoir des conséquences dramatiques sur l’environnement bâti. Il est présenté une approche visant à comprendre et évaluer ces impacts sur le parc bâti norvégien sous un climat en évolution. Cette approche est testée en utilisant des calculs relatifs aux possibilités de pourrissement des structures en bois de construction (possédant des bardages en bois, des ossatures bois, voire les deux). Dans un premier temps, les données relatives aux bâtiments et les données relatives aux climats sont compilées dans un Système d’Information Géographique (SIG). Dans un second temps, le modèle informatique calcule le nombre de bâtiments qui pourraient être affectés par un paramètre climatique particulier dans le cadre des données climatiques historiques (1961–1990) et d’un scénario climatique futur (2071–2100). Les résultats montrent qu’aujourd’hui environ 615 000 bâtiments se situent dans des régions présentant un risque potentiel élevé de pourrissement. En 2100, ce nombre pourrait s’accroître jusqu’à atteindre environ 2,4 millions. La grande quantité actuelle de bâtiments en bois et un nombre élevé de défauts de construction indiquent qu’il faudrait que les futurs bâtiments neufs et rénovés soient construits de manière plus solide afin de répondre aux impacts futurs du changement climatique. D’autres paramètres climatiques – tels que par exemple l’élévation du niveau de la mer, les modifications du permafrost, le risque de pourrissement par le gel, les changements de température et les changements dans la quantité de précipitations des hivers humides – sont étudiés sous l’angle de leur effet sur le parc bâti norvégien. Mots clés: mesures d’adaptation, parc bâti, changement climatique, études d’impact, bâtiments solides, risque de pourrissement, bâtiments en bois, Norvège

Robustness Classification of Materials, Assemblies and Buildings

Reliable methods are needed for classifying the robustness of buildings and building materials for many reasons, including ensuring that constructions can withstand the climate conditions resulting from global warming, which might be more severe than was assumed in an existing building’s design. Evaluating the robustness of buildings is also important for reducing process-induced building defects. We describe and demonstrate a flexible framework for classifying the robustness of building materials, building assemblies, and whole buildings that incorporates climate and service life considerations.

A Primer on the Building Economics of Climate Change

Climate change will entail new conditions for the construction industry. Knowledge about the implications of climate change on the built environment will be of the utmost importance to the industry in years to come. A building is a ‘long lasting’ durable asset that is changed over time due to exogenously imposed strains and by actions. The built environment has an expected lifetime varying from 60 to more than 100 years. Hence, the building economics of climate change should be treated within a dynamic analytical framework that explicitly allows for changes in the information sets over time. The building stock of the future consists of the building stock of today and of new construction. In the future, parts of the present building stock will be adapted to changes in the environment, while some parts will be kept as they are. Analysis of how building stock is affected by future climate change should handle this diversity. This can be done through the use of a putty-clay model. Uncertainty of what kind of climate regimes will prevail in the future enhances the profitability of actions that increase future flexibility. Hence, the real option approach to building economics is utilized.

High-performance weather-protective flashings

The lifetime of the built environment depends strongly on the severity of local climatic conditions. A well-functioning and reliable infrastructure is a precondition for economic growth and social development. The climate and topography of Norway puts great demands on the design and localization of buildings. The relationship between materials, structures and climatic impact is highly complex; illustrating the need for new and improved methods for vulnerability assessment of building envelope performance in relation to externally imposed climatic strains. Historically, major variations in climatic impact have led to corresponding large variations in building practice throughout the country - often well suited to local conditions. Today it is fair to say that sound building traditions and practice to some extent are being rejected in the quest for cost-effective solutions. Furthermore, projected changes in climatic conditions due to global warming will enhance the vulnerability within the built environment.The primary objectives of the present dissertation are to increase the knowledge about possible impacts of climate change on building envelope performance, and to analyse and update methods for the planning and design of external envelopes in relation to climatic impact. This is accomplished through the development of integrated approaches and improved methods for assessing impacts of external climatic parameters on building envelopes, combining knowledge on materials, structures and relevant climate data, applicable for both historical data and scenarios for climate change. The results will contribute to more accurate building physics design guidelines, promoting high-performance building envelopes in harsh climates.Approaches to assessments of the risks associated with climate change and buildings are suggested, identifying main areas of vulnerability in the construction industry. It is shown that there are benefits to be gained from the introduction of risk management strategies within a greater extent of the construction industry. A way of analysing the building economics of climate change is also proposed Analyses of building defects are necessary in order to further develop tools, solutions and preventive measures ensuring high-performance building envelopes. To illuminate the vulnerability of different building envelope elements under varying climatic exposure, a comprehensive analysis of empirical data gathered from process induced building defect assignments is carried out. The amount of building defects in Norway clearly illustrates that it is not only the extreme weather events that need to be studied as a foundation for adaptation towards a changing climate. Furthermore, the analyses of defects reveal a fundamental need for climate differentiated design guidelines.New and improved methods for geographically dependent design of building envelopes are proposed:- A method for assessing the relative potential of frost decay or frost damage of porous, mineral building materials exposed to a given climate is developed.- A national map of the potential for decay in wood structures is developed. Detailed scenarios for climate change for selected locations in Norway are used to provide an indication of the possible future development of decay rates.- A method for assessing driving rain exposures based on multi-year records of synoptic observations of present weather, wind speed and direction is also presented.These climate indices can be used as a tool for evaluation of changes in performance requirements or decay rates due to climate change under global warming incorporating data from regional- and local-level climate change scenarios. Historical records of climate data have finally been used to illuminate challenges arising when introducing international standards at the national level, without considering the need for adjustments to reflect varying local climatic conditions.At present, building standards and design guidelines presuppose use of historic weather data. Historically, location-specific climate data have only to a very limited extent been applied systematically for design purposes, life cycle assessments, and climate differentiation of the suitability of a given technical solution in a given climate. The work is a first step towards methods and approaches allowing for geographically dependent climate considerations to be made in the development of design guidelines for high-performance building envelopes, and also approaches to assess the risks associated with the future performance of building envelopes due to climate change.The dissertation focuses on methods for assessing impacts of external climatic parameters on a local scale, but with the use of daily and monthly averages of climate data. The reliability of climate indices or climate differentiated design guidelines is strongly dependent on the geographical spreading of the observing station network. The Norwegian network is not optimally distributed to fully embrace local variations, but provides a solid platform for the development of methods for geographically dependent design and guidelines on the appropriateness of different solutions in different climates.Climate indices (using geographic information systems technology)allowing for quantitative assessment of building envelope performance or decay potential may be an important element in the development of adaptation measures to meet the future risks of climate change in different parts of the world. Finally, the work offers a conceptual point of departure for the development of a vintage model of the robustness of the Norwegian building stock.