Kim Rose Olsen

Prediction of the Clinical Course of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, Using the New GOLD Classification A Study of the General Population

RATIONALE The new Global Initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stratification of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) into categories A, B, C, and D is based on symptoms, level of lung function, and history of exacerbations. OBJECTIVES To investigate the abilities of this stratification to predict the clinical course of COPD. METHODS Two similar population studies were performed in an area of Copenhagen including 6,628 individuals with COPD. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS The patients were monitored for an average period of 4.3 years regarding COPD exacerbations, hospital admissions, and mortality. The percentages of individuals experiencing a COPD exacerbation during the first year of observation were 2.2% in group A, 5.8% in group B, 25.1% in group C, and 28.6% in group D. One- and 3-year mortality rates were 0.6 and 3.8%, respectively, in group A, 3.0 and 10.6% in group B, 0.7 and 8.2% in group C, and 3.4 and 20.1% in group D. Groups B and D, characterized by a higher degree of dyspnea than groups A and C, had five to eight times higher mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer than did groups A and C. CONCLUSIONS The new stratification performs well by identifying individuals at risk of exacerbations. Surprisingly, subgroup B, characterized by more severe dyspnea, had significantly poorer survival than group C, in spite of a higher FEV(1) level. This subgroup warrants special attention, as the poor prognosis could be caused by cardiovascular disease or cancer, requiring additional assessment and treatment.

Examining cost variation across hospital departments–a two-stage multi-level approach using patient-level data

Studies of hospital efficiency seldom lead to changes in practice, partly because recommendations are unspecific or results are not seen as robust. We describe a method to compare hospital costs that utilises patient-level data. We perform a two-stage analysis in which we first consider factors that explain costs among patients and then across hospital departments. We illustrate our approach by examining the costs and characteristics of almost one million patients admitted to 136 English NHS hospital obstetrics departments in 2005/2006. We identify those departments with significantly higher costs that need to take action.

Cost-effectiveness estimate of prehospital thrombolysis Results of the PHANTOM-S Study

Objective: To analyze the cost-effectiveness of shorter delays to treatment and increased thrombolysis rate as shown in the PHANTOM-S (Prehospital Acute Neurological Treatment and Optimization of Medical Care in Stroke) Study. Methods: In addition to intermediate outcomes (time to thrombolysis) and treatment rates, we registered all resource consequences of the intervention. The analyzed treatment effects of the intervention were restricted to distribution of IV thrombolysis (IVT) administrations according to time intervals. Intermediate outcomes were extrapolated to final outcomes according to numbers needed to treat derived from pooled IVT trials and translated to gains in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Results: The net annual cost of the Stroke Emergency Mobile (STEMO) prehospital stroke concept was €963,954. The higher frequency of IVT administrations per year (310 vs 225) and higher proportions of patients treated in the early time interval (within 90 minutes: 48.1% vs 37.4%; 91–180 minutes: 37.4% vs 50%; 181–270 minutes: 14.5% vs 12.8%) resulted in an annual expected health gain of avoidance of 18 cases of disability equaling 29.7 QALYs. This produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €32,456 per QALY. Conclusions: Depending on willingness-to-pay thresholds in societal perspectives, the STEMO prehospital stroke concept has the potential of providing a reasonable innovation even in health-economic dimensions.

Waist circumference and body mass index as predictors of health care costs.

Background In the present study we analyze the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) and future health care costs. On the basis of the relation between these anthropometric measures and mortality, we hypothesized that for all levels of BMI increased WC implies added future health care costs (Hypothesis 1) and for given levels of WC increased BMI entails reduced future health care costs (Hypothesis 2). We furthermore assessed whether a combination of the two measures predicts health care costs better than either individual measure. Research Methodology/Principal Findings Data were obtained from the Danish prospective cohort study Diet, Cancer and Health. The population includes 15,334 men and 16,506 women 50 to 64 years old recruited in 1996 to 1997. The relationship between future health care costs and BMI and WC in combination was analyzed by use of categorized and continuous analyses. The analysis confirms Hypothesis 1, reflecting that an increased level of abdominal fat for a given BMI gives higher health care costs. Hypothesis 2, that BMI had a protective effect for a given WC, was only confirmed in the continuous analysis and for a subgroup of women (BMI<30 kg/m2 and WC <88 cm). The relative magnitude of the estimates supports that the regressions including WC as an explanatory factor provide the best fit to the data. Conclusion The study showed that WC for given levels of BMI predicts increased health costs, whereas BMI for given WC did not predict health costs except for a lower cost in non-obese women with normal WC. Combining WC and BMI does not give a better prediction of costs than WC alone.

Measuring cost efficiency in the Nordic Hospitals—a cross-sectional comparison of public hospitals in 2002

The aim of this study was to compare the performance of hospital care in four Nordic countries: Norway, Finland, Sweden and Denmark. Using national discharge registries and cost data from hospitals, cost efficiency in the production of somatic hospital care was calculated for public hospitals. Data were collected using harmonised definitions of inputs and outputs for 184 hospitals and data envelopment analysis was used to calculate Farrell efficiency estimates for the year 2002. Results suggest that there were marked differences in the average hospital efficiency between Nordic countries. In 2002, average efficiency was markedly higher in Finland compared to Norway and Sweden. This study found differences in cost efficiency that cannot be explained by input prices or differences in coding practices. More analysis is needed to reveal the causes of large efficiency disparities between Nordic hospitals.

Prediction of the Clinical Course of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, Using the New GOLD Classification

RATIONALE The new Global Initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stratification of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) into categories A, B, C, and D is based on symptoms, level of lung function, and history of exacerbations. OBJECTIVES To investigate the abilities of this stratification to predict the clinical course of COPD. METHODS Two similar population studies were performed in an area of Copenhagen including 6,628 individuals with COPD. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS The patients were monitored for an average period of 4.3 years regarding COPD exacerbations, hospital admissions, and mortality. The percentages of individuals experiencing a COPD exacerbation during the first year of observation were 2.2% in group A, 5.8% in group B, 25.1% in group C, and 28.6% in group D. One- and 3-year mortality rates were 0.6 and 3.8%, respectively, in group A, 3.0 and 10.6% in group B, 0.7 and 8.2% in group C, and 3.4 and 20.1% in group D. Groups B and D, characterized by a higher degree of dyspnea than groups A and C, had five to eight times higher mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer than did groups A and C. CONCLUSIONS The new stratification performs well by identifying individuals at risk of exacerbations. Surprisingly, subgroup B, characterized by more severe dyspnea, had significantly poorer survival than group C, in spite of a higher FEV(1) level. This subgroup warrants special attention, as the poor prognosis could be caused by cardiovascular disease or cancer, requiring additional assessment and treatment.

Cost-effectiveness of the Danish smoking cessation interventions

The cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation interventions is well documented. However, most studies are based on randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and provide little information on the differences between subgroups. This study assessed the relative cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation interventions offered to various subgroups of smokers, based on real-life data. Regression analyses provided information on the factors determining abstinence and costs and led to the formation of relevant subgroups of smokers. Probabilistic Markov modeling was then used to estimate the relative cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation interventions for the entire database population and for the subgroups compared to a no-intervention case. The ICER for the base case population was estimated at €1,358. This is consistent with results from the existing literature. Group simulations showed lower ICERs for men, hospitals, and light smokers and falling ICERs with increasing age. Despite differences in the cost-effectiveness ratios between subgroups our results do not justify any kind of subgroup differentiation in a smoking prevention policy.

Cost-effectiveness of surveillance programs for families at high and moderate risk of hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer.

OBJECTIVES Surveillance programs are recommended to both families at high risk (Amsterdam-positive families with known- and unknown mutation) and moderate risk (families not fulfilling all Amsterdam criteria) of colorectal cancer (CRC). Cost-effectiveness has so far only been estimated for the group at high risk. The aim of the present study is to determine cost-effectiveness of surveillance programs where families at both high and moderate risk of HNPCC participate. METHODS A decision analytic model (Markov model) is developed to assess surveillance programs where families at high and moderate risk of HNPCC are offered surveillance from age 25 and age 45, respectively. The model includes costs for all families referred to genetic counseling, including genetic risk assessment, mutation analysis, and surveillance in relevant families with or without known mutation, plus the costs related to any surgical treatment. The risk of metachronous CRC is also modeled. RESULTS Incremental costs per life year gained are estimated to be euro 980 when families at both high and moderate risk of HNPCC undergo surveillance (euro 508 for high risk and euro 1600 for moderate risk) and euro 1947 when the moderate risk group is evaluated genetically but not offered surveillance. Sensitivity analysis showed these findings to be robust, although cost-effectiveness can be improved in cases of more conservative referrals to genetic counseling. CONCLUSIONS The result for high risk families confirms the findings in similar studies. Somewhat surprisingly, cost-effectiveness improves when surveillance of the moderate risk groups are included in the decision model.

Economies of scale and scope in the Danish hospital sector prior to radical restructuring plans

OBJECTIVE The Danish hospital sector faces a significant rebuilding program driven by recent regional reform and guidelines for acute admission hospitals. Within the next 5-10 years, the number of public hospitals offering acute admission will be reduced from 35 to approximately 20 larger hospitals. As the administrative data may be biased during the middle of a restructuring process our objective was to analyze whether the configuration of Danish public hospitals was subject to economies of scale and scope prior to the restructuring plans. METHODS We estimated a quadratic cost function using panel data on the total costs for somatic treatment, casemix adjusted DRG-production values, and other cost drivers for the three years before the 2007 reforms. A short-run cost function was used to derive estimates of a long-run cost function by applying the envelope condition. Next, we estimated economies of scale and scope. RESULTS We identified moderate-to-significant economies of scale and scope. This indicates that the Danish hospital sector was characterized by unexploited gains from consolidation. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that the proposed plans have the potential to result in hospitals that are more efficient. However, post-restructuring studies elsewhere show that the strategy of horizontal integration has failed.

Image and surgery-related costs comparing cone beam CT and panoramic imaging before removal of impacted mandibular third molars.

OBJECTIVES The aim of this prospective clinical study was to derive the absolute and relative costs of cone beam CT (CBCT) and panoramic imaging before removal of an impacted mandibular third molar. Furthermore, the study aimed to analyse the influence of different cost-setting scenarios on the outcome of the absolute and relative costs and the incremental costs related to surgery. METHODS A randomized clinical trial compared complications following surgical removal of a mandibular third molar, where the pre-operative diagnostic method had been panoramic imaging or CBCT. The resources implied in the two methods were measured with health economic tools. The primary outcome was total costs defined as the sum of absolute imaging costs and incremental surgery-related costs. The basic variables were capital costs, operational costs, radiological costs, radiographic costs, overheads and patient resource utilization. Differences in resources used for surgical and post-surgical management were calculated for each patient. RESULTS Converted to monetary units, the total costs for panoramic imaging equalized €49.29 and for CBCT examination €184.44. Modifying effects on this outcome such as differences in surgery time, treatment time for complications, pre- and post-surgical medication, sickness absence, specialist treatment and hospitalization were not statistically significant between the two diagnostic method groups. CONCLUSIONS Costs for a CBCT examination were approximately four times the costs for panoramic imaging when used prior to removal of a mandibular third molar. The use of CBCT did not change the resources used for surgery, post-surgical treatment and patient complication management.