Kim Sutton-Tyrrell

Ankle brachial index combined with Framingham risk score to predict cardiovascular events and mortality - A meta-analysis

CONTEXT Prediction models to identify healthy individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease have limited accuracy. A low ankle brachial index (ABI) is an indicator of atherosclerosis and has the potential to improve prediction. OBJECTIVE To determine if the ABI provides information on the risk of cardiovascular events and mortality independently of the Framingham risk score (FRS) and can improve risk prediction. DATA SOURCES Relevant studies were identified. A search of MEDLINE (1950 to February 2008) and EMBASE (1980 to February 2008) was conducted using common text words for the term ankle brachial index combined with text words and Medical Subject Headings to capture prospective cohort designs. Review of reference lists and conference proceedings, and correspondence with experts was conducted to identify additional published and unpublished studies. STUDY SELECTION Studies were included if participants were derived from a general population, ABI was measured at baseline, and individuals were followed up to detect total and cardiovascular mortality. DATA EXTRACTION Prespecified data on individuals in each selected study were extracted into a combined data set and an individual participant data meta-analysis was conducted on individuals who had no previous history of coronary heart disease. RESULTS Sixteen population cohort studies fulfilling the inclusion criteria were included. During 480,325 person-years of follow-up of 24,955 men and 23,339 women, the risk of death by ABI had a reverse J-shaped distribution with a normal (low risk) ABI of 1.11 to 1.40. The 10-year cardiovascular mortality in men with a low ABI (< or = 0.90) was 18.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 13.3%-24.1%) and with normal ABI (1.11-1.40) was 4.4% (95% CI, 3.2%-5.7%) (hazard ratio [HR], 4.2; 95% CI, 3.3-5.4). Corresponding mortalities in women were 12.6% (95% CI, 6.2%-19.0%) and 4.1% (95% CI, 2.2%-6.1%) (HR, 3.5; 95% CI, 2.4-5.1). The HRs remained elevated after adjusting for FRS (2.9 [95% CI, 2.3-3.7] for men vs 3.0 [95% CI, 2.0-4.4] for women). A low ABI (< or = 0.90) was associated with approximately twice the 10-year total mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and major coronary event rate compared with the overall rate in each FRS category. Inclusion of the ABI in cardiovascular risk stratification using the FRS would result in reclassification of the risk category and modification of treatment recommendations in approximately 19% of men and 36% of women. CONCLUSION Measurement of the ABI may improve the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction beyond the FRS.

Elevated Aortic Pulse Wave Velocity, a Marker of Arterial Stiffness, Predicts Cardiovascular Events in Well-Functioning Older Adults

Background—Aging results in vascular stiffening and an increase in the velocity of the pressure wave as it travels down the aorta. Increased aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV) has been associated with mortality in clinical but not general populations. The objective of this investigation was to determine whether aPWV is associated with total and cardiovascular (CV) mortality and CV events in a community-dwelling sample of older adults. Methods and Results—aPWV was measured at baseline in 2488 participants from the Health, Aging and Body Composition (Health ABC) study. Vital status, cause of death and coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and congestive heart failure were determined from medical records. Over 4.6 years, 265 deaths occurred, 111 as a result of cardiovascular causes. There were 341 CHD events, 94 stroke events, and 181 cases of congestive heart failure. Results are presented by quartiles because of a threshold effect between the first and second aPWV quartiles. Higher aPWV was associated with both total mortality (relative risk, 1.5, 1.6, and 1.7 for aPWV quartiles 2, 3, and 4 versus 1; P=0.019) and cardiovascular mortality (relative risk, 2.1, 3.0, and 2.3 for quartiles 2, 3, and 4 versus 1; P=0.004). aPWV quartile was also significantly associated with CHD (P=0.007) and stroke (P=0.001). These associations remained after adjustment for age, gender, race, systolic blood pressure, known CV disease, and other variables related to events. Conclusions—Among generally healthy, community-dwelling older adults, aPWV, a marker of arterial stiffness, is associated with higher CV mortality, CHD, and stroke.

Inflammatory Markers and Onset of Cardiovascular Events Results From the Health ABC Study

Background—Inflammation plays an important role in cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study is to investigate the predictive value of several inflammatory markers on the incidence of cardiovascular events in well-functioning older persons. Methods and Results—The subjects were 2225 participants 70 to 79 years old, without baseline cardiovascular disease, who were enrolled in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition study. Incident coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and congestive heart failure (CHF) events were detected during an average follow-up of 3.6 years. Blood levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-reactive protein (CRP), and tumor necrosis factor-&agr; (TNF-&agr;) were assessed. After adjustment for potential confounders, IL-6 was significantly associated with all outcomes (CHD events, per IL-6 SD increase: RR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.10 to 1.48; stroke events, per IL-6 SD increase: RR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.86; CHF events, per IL-6 SD increase: RR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.40 to 2.12). TNF-&agr; showed significant associations with CHD (per TNF-&agr; SD increase: RR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.43) and CHF (per TNF-&agr; SD increase: RR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.30 to 1.95) events. CRP was significantly associated with CHF events (per CRP SD increase: RR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.23 to 1.78). A composite summary indicator of inflammation showed a strong association with incident cardiovascular events, with an especially high risk if all 3 inflammatory markers were in the highest tertile. Conclusions—Findings suggest that inflammatory markers are independent predictors of cardiovascular events in older persons.

Prevalence and risk factors of carotid plaque in women with systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVE To determine the prevalence of carotid atherosclerosis and associated risk factors in women with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS Carotid plaque and intima-media wall thickness (IMT) were measured by B-mode ultrasound in women with SLE. Risk factors associated with carotid plaque and IMT were determined at the time of the ultrasound scan and included traditional cardiovascular risk factors, SLE-specific variables, and inflammation markers. RESULTS The 175 women with SLE were predominantly white (87%), with a mean age of 44.9 years (SD 11.5). Twenty-six women (15%) had a previous arterial event (10 coronary [myocardial infarction or angina], 11 cerebrovascular [stroke or transient ischemic attack], and 5 both). The mean +/- SD IMT was 0.71 +/- 0.14 mm, and 70 women (40%) had focal plaque. Variables significantly associated with focal plaque (P < 0.05) included age, duration of lupus, systolic, diastolic, and pulse pressure, body mass index, menopausal status, levels of total and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, fibrinogen and C-reactive protein levels, SLE-related disease damage according to the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) damage index (modified to exclude cardiovascular parameters), and disease activity as determined by the Systemic Lupus Activity Measure. Women with longer duration of prednisone use and a higher cumulative dose of prednisone as well as those with prior coronary events were more likely to have plaque. In logistic regression models, independent determinants of plaque (P < 0.05) were older age, higher systolic blood pressure, higher levels of LDL cholesterol, prolonged treatment with prednisone, and a previous coronary event. Older age, a previous coronary event, and elevated systolic blood pressure were independently associated with increased severity of plaque (P < 0.01). Older age, elevated pulse pressure, a previous coronary event, and a higher SLICC disease damage score were independently related to increased IMT (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION B-mode ultrasound provides a useful noninvasive technique to assess atherosclerosis in women with SLE who are at high risk for cardiovascular disease. Potentially modifiable risk factors were found to be associated with the vascular disease detected using this method.

Evidence for Association Between Polycystic Ovary Syndrome and Premature Carotid Atherosclerosis in Middle-Aged Women

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common reproductive endocrine disorder characterized by obesity, hyperandrogenism, and insulin resistance. An adverse lipid profile has also been observed in PCOS-affected women, suggesting that these individuals may be at increased risk for coronary heart disease at a young age. The objective of the present study was to evaluate subclinical atherosclerosis among women with PCOS and age-matched control subjects. A total of 125 white PCOS cases and 142 controls, aged ≥30 years were recruited. Collection of baseline sociodemographic data, reproductive hormone levels, and cardiovascular risk factors was conducted from 1992 to 1994. During follow-up (1996 to 1999), these women underwent B-mode ultrasonography of the carotid arteries for the evaluation of carotid intima-media wall thickness (IMT) and the prevalence of plaque. A significant difference was observed in the distribution of carotid plaque among PCOS cases compared with controls: 7.2% (9 of 125) of PCOS cases had a plaque index of ≥3 compared with 0.7% (1 of 142) of similarly aged controls (P =0.05). Overall and in the group aged 30 to 44 years, no difference was noted in mean carotid IMT between PCOS cases and controls. Among women aged ≥45 years, PCOS cases had significantly greater mean IMT than did control women (0.78±0.03 versus 0.70±0.01 mm, P =0.005). This difference remained significant after adjustment for age and BMI (P <0.05). These results suggest that (1) lifelong exposure to an adverse cardiovascular risk profile in women with PCOS may lead to premature atherosclerosis, and (2) the PCOS-IMT association is explained in part by weight and fat distribution and associated risk factors. There may be an independent effect of PCOS unexplained by the above variables that is related to the hormonal dysregulation of this condition.

Assessment of neurological prognosis in comatose survivors of cardiac arrest

When a patient resuscitated from cardiac arrest remains unconscious the clinician would like to have a reliable early method for predicting the outcome. The objective of our study was to predict cerebral outcome after cardiac arrest by clinical neurological examination. The data were drawn from an international multicentre controlled clinical trial of thiopentone. Twelve hospitals in nine countries took part. 262 comatose cardiac arrest survivors were followed up for one year. These patients were given advanced life support (American Heart Association guidelines) followed by intensive care to a standardised protocol. Glasgow and Glasgow-Pittsburgh coma scores and their constituent signs were recorded at fixed times. Outcome was taken to be the best cerebral performance at any time during follow-up, and for that purpose we used cerebral performance categories (CPC 1-5) of the Glasgow outcome categories. A poor outcome (CPC 3-5) could be predicted immediately after reperfusion (at entry into the study) with an accuracy ranging from 52% to 84% for various signs and scores. On the third day it was possible to identify severely disabled or permanently comatose survivors without false predictions using both coma scores and several of their constituent variables. The best predictor was absence of motor response to pain. This modelling exercise now needs to be repeated on a new series of patients but the results do suggest that, after 3 days, stringent ethical criteria can be met and used in decision-making about termination of care in comatose cardiac arrest survivors.

Sleep difficulty in women at midlife: a community survey of sleep and the menopausal transition.

Objective To compare age-adjusted and ethnic differences in prevalences of sleep difficulty at various stages of the menopausal transition and to determine the relative contribution of other factors, including vasomotor symptoms, sociodemographics, and psychological and physical health factors, to self-reported sleep difficulty in middle-aged women. Design A community-based survey of womens health and menopausal symptoms was conducted between November 1995 and October 1997 at each of the seven US sites participating in the Study of Womens Health Across the Nation. A multiethnic sample of 12,603 Caucasian, African American, Chinese, Japanese, and Hispanic women aged 40 to 55 years was categorized into six groups: premenopausal, early perimenopausal, late perimenopausal, naturally postmenopausal, surgically postmenopausal, and postmenopausal receiving hormone replacement therapy. The women were asked whether they had experienced difficulty sleeping in the past 2 weeks. Results Difficulty sleeping was reported by 38%. Age-adjusted rates were highest in the late perimenopausal (45.4%) and surgically postmenopausal (47.6%) groups. Among ethnic groups, rates ranged from 28% in Japanese women to 40% in Caucasian women. In the multivariate analysis, menopausal status was significantly associated with difficulty sleeping. Ethnicity, vasomotor and psychological symptoms, self-perceived health and health behaviors, arthritis, and education also were significantly associated with difficulty sleeping. Conclusions These results suggest that stage of the menopausal transition, independent of other potential explanatory factors, is associated with self-reported sleep difficulty. Older age per se was not significantly associated with difficulty sleeping.

Measures of Obesity Are Associated With Vascular Stiffness in Young and Older Adults

Abstract—Obesity has reached epidemic levels and carries a risk for cardiovascular disease. Obesity’s effects on the vascular systems of young adults and African Americans have not been well characterized. The aim of this study was to assess the association between measures of obesity and aortic stiffness in 186 young adults (20 to 40 years, 50% African American) and 177 older adults (41 to 70 years, 33% African American). Aortic stiffness was measured by aortic pulse-wave velocity. The median pulse-wave velocity value was 468 cm/s for young adults and 627 cm/s for older adults (P <0.001). Higher body weight, body mass index, waist and hip circumferences, and waist-hip ratio were strongly correlated with higher pulse-wave velocity, independent of age, systolic blood pressure, race, and sex overall and among both age groups (P <0.01 for all). Even among the 20- to 30-year-olds, obese individuals (body mass index>30) had a mean pulse-wave velocity value 47 cm/s higher than did nonobese individuals (P <0.001). Obesity measures were among the strongest independent predictors of pulse-wave velocity overall and for both age groups. Results were consistent by race. In conclusion, excess body weight is associated with higher aortic stiffness in whites and African Americans as young as 20 to 30 years. The strength of the association, the early age at which it appears, and the prevalence of obesity among the young warn of substantially increased cardiovascular disease incidence as this cohort ages.

Aortic Stiffness Is Associated With Visceral Adiposity in Older Adults Enrolled in the Study of Health, Aging, and Body Composition

The central arteries stiffen with age, causing hemodynamic alterations that have been associated with cardiovascular events. Changes in body fat with age may be related to aortic stiffening. The association between vascular stiffness and body fat was evaluated in 2488 older adults (mean age, 74 years; 52% female; 40% black) enrolled in the Study of Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC), a prospective study of changes in weight and body composition. Clinical sites were located in Pittsburgh, Pa, and Memphis, Tenn. Aortic pulse wave velocity was used as an indirect measure of aortic stiffness. A faster pulse wave velocity indicates a stiffer aorta. Body fat measures were evaluated with dual energy x-ray absorptiometry and computed tomography. Independent of age and blood pressure, pulse wave velocity was positively associated with weight, abdominal circumference, abdominal subcutaneous fat, abdominal visceral fat, thigh fat area, and total fat (P <0.001 for all). The strongest association was with abdominal visceral fat. Elevated pulse wave velocity was also positively associated with history of diabetes and higher levels of glucose, insulin, and hemoglobin A1c (P <0.001 for all). In multivariate analysis, independent positive associations with pulse wave velocity were found for age, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, abdominal visceral fat, smoking, hemoglobin A1c, and history of hypertension. The association between pulse wave velocity and abdominal visceral fat was consistent across tertiles of body weight. Among older adults, higher levels of visceral fat are associated with greater aortic stiffness as measured by pulse wave velocity.

C-reactive protein, carotid intima-media thickness, and incidence of ischemic stroke in the elderly: the Cardiovascular Health Study.

Background—Increased carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT) and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) are both associated with the occurrence of stroke. We investigated whether elevated CRP is a risk factor for ischemic stroke independent of carotid IMT and studied the interaction between CRP and IMT. Methods and Results—We studied 5417 participants aged 65 years or older without preexisting stroke or chronic atrial fibrillation who were participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study. The hazard ratio of incident ischemic stroke was estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression. During 10.2 years of follow-up, 469 incident ischemic strokes occurred. The adjusted hazard ratios for ischemic stroke in the 2nd to 4th quartiles of baseline CRP, relative to the 1st quartile, were 1.19 (95% CI 0.92 to 1.53), 1.05 (95% CI 0.81 to 1.37), and 1.60 (95% CI 1.23 to 2.08), respectively. With additional adjustment for carotid IMT, there was little confounding. The association of CRP with stroke was significantly different depending on IMT (P <0.02), with no association of CRP with stroke among those in the lowest IMT tertile and a significant association among those with higher levels of IMT. Conclusions—We conclude that elevated CRP is a risk factor for ischemic stroke, independent of atherosclerosis severity as measured by carotid IMT. The association of CRP with stroke is more apparent in the presence of a higher carotid IMT. CRP and carotid IMT may each be independent integrals in determining the risk of ischemic stroke.