Kirk Lawrence

From Chiefdom to State: Toward an Integrative Theory of the Evolution of Polity:

The evolution of the polity, particularly the transition of chiefdoms to states, has been the subject of considerable debate. In this article, the authors engage the discussion surrounding the meta-theoretical positions on the tempo of change, specifically whether states emerged gradually from quantitative changes in chiefdom societies—gradualism—or if their appearance was the result of punctuated and qualitative change—punctuated equilibrium. After revisiting the classic debate, the authors update it with new contributions drawn from the natural and social sciences. They contend that chiefdoms do not simply become states as a result of increases in the size of component parts; instead, punctuated equilibrium, stemming from responses to selection pressures from social forces, has more empirical support than gradualism in explaining state formation. The authors then take steps toward an integrative model of polity evolution, in which the state emerges as a discrete change resulting from social forces reaching critical thresholds.

The Thermodynamics of Unequal Exchange Energy Use, CO2 Emissions, and GDP in the World-System, 1975—2005

Energy flow — the capture and transformation of energy, and the output of pollution generated during that process — is essential to increases in complexity, but with the cost of growing disorder, or entropy. In world-systems, energy flow has been, and continues to be, a basis for intersocietal conflict and competition, including unequal exchange that generates inequality in levels of development and ecological degradation across societies. This article builds upon extant research on the role of energy flow in world-systems through an analysis of data on energy use and GDP in the world-system from 1975 to 2005 and for 1975—2004 for CO2 emissions. Using a panel of 87 countries, a world-system core, semiperiphery, and periphery is generated based on population-weighted energy use. Analysis of energy flows through this world-system provides support for the existence of unequal ecological exchange — the core countries are using more energy, emitting more CO2, and attaining more GDP per capita relative to the semiperiphery, with the periphery lagging well behind both. This relationship also holds for net importers of energy as compared to net energy exporters. This demonstrates the inequality in resource use that leads to the development of the core and the underdevelopment of the periphery. But gains are being made by countries in the semiperiphery and periphery relative to the core for both per capita and percentage of world total measures. This potential for development may place the planet in peril, however, as efficiency gains in the core are being offset by growth in emissions by the semiperiphery and periphery.

Polity scale shifts in world-systems since the Bronze Age: A comparative inventory of upsweeps and collapses

In this article we report an inventory of cycles, upward sweeps and collapses of polity sizes in five separate interpolity systems: Mesopotamia, Egypt, South Asia, East Asia and the expanding Central System that eventually became the contemporary global system. Upward sweeps are defined as instances in which the largest sovereign polity in a network of fighting and allying polities significantly increases in size. Collapses are instances in which the size of the largest polity greatly decreases and stays down for a significant period of time (centuries). We use regional interpolity systems rather than single polities as the unit of analysis, following the comparative world-systems framework. We are limited to those regions and time periods for which quantitative estimates of largest polity sizes are available. We compare the frequencies of cycles and sweeps across five interpolity networks, and find more similarities than differences across the five systems. This is somewhat surprising because most studies that compare East Asia with the West stress important differences. We find a total of 22 upsweeps and 19 downsweeps across the five systems, but only three instances of prolonged system-wide collapse. We also find that the frequency of cycles increased over the long run, while the frequencies of upsweeps and downsweeps did not display long-term trends. The lack of a downward trend in downsweeps challenges the supposition that resilience grows with sociocultural complexity and size.

The Next Three Futures, Part One: Looming Crises of Global Inequality, Ecological Degradation, and a Failed System of Global Governance

This two-part article discusses developments in the first decade of the 21st century and uses the comparative world-systems perspective to consider possible scenarios for the next several decades. In Part One that follows, we consider the likely trends of the 21st century and the major challenges that humanity will face, noting some disturbing similarities, but also some important differences, between what happened during the late 19th century and the first half of the 20th century and what seems to be happening in the early 21st century. There are three major crises looming: 1) Massive global inequalities; 2) Ecological degradation; and, 3) A failed system of global governance in the wake of US hegemonic decline. The timing and strength of these challenges and their interactions will greatly influence their severity and the possible solutions; however, as in the past, large challenges are also opportunities for innovation and for reorganising human institutions. In Part Two, published in the next issue, we discuss the major structural alternatives for the trajectory of the world-system during the 21st century, positing three basic scenarios: 1) Another round of US economic and political hegemony; 2) Collapse; and, 3) Capable, democratic, multilateral, and legitimate global governance.

Territory, Authority, Rights: From Medieval to Global AssemblagesTerritory, Authority, Rights: From Medieval to Global Assemblages, by SassenSaskia. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press: 2006. 493pp.

micro connections, and bridges the gap between qualitative and quantitative research, noting how the case study is flexible enough to be used effectively within both traditions. The author’s knowledge and extensive research across the social sciences on the case study is notable. Gerring makes a contribution to the social sciences, as he documents the development of this method over time. Specifically to sociology, Gerring analyzes existing “classic” case study research, with suggestions about how to make future improvements. In addition to these contributions, Gerring writes well, presents a clearly organized argument, and engages the reader, which is greatly appreciated, in a methodological discussion. This book is ideal for use in an advanced methods courses, as well as courses solely about the case study. For example, I can envision reading Case Study Research alongside some of the classic monographs mentioned, working through each piece of research with Gerring’s thoughtful and thorough guidance, noting strengths and acknowledging room for improvement in present and future research endeavors. Having read this book, readers will leave with a better understanding of the historic and present complexities within the case study method. Gerring provides us with concrete information about how and when this method is used, how it can be used better, and, despite all the controversy and doubt regarding this choice of method, that it continues to be useful within the social sciences. GLOBAL DYNAMICS AND SOCIAL CHANGE

35.00 cloth. ISBN: 9780691095387.

The issues that Stephen K. Sanderson raises in his response to our discussion of his critique of the world-systems perspective deserve and require further comment and clarification. We want to briefly elucidate our positions on levels of analysis, core/periphery exploitation, Marxism, socialist and communist projects and the possible future of socialism, and our stance on the trajectory of global state formation.

Rejoinder to Sanderson’s Response

This two-part paper discusses developments at the beginning of the 21st century, using the comparative world-systems perspective to see disturbing similarities, and important differences, between what happened during the late 19th century and the first half of the 20th century and what seems to be happening in the early 21st. We then use this perspective to consider possible scenarios for the next several decades. In Part One, published in the preceding issue, we considered the major challenges of massive global inequalities, ecological degradation, and a failed system of global governance in the wake of US hegemonic decline. In Part Two that follows, we discuss the major structural alternatives for the trajectory of the world-system during the 21st century, positing three basic scenarios: (1) another round of US economic hegemony based on comparative advantage in new lead industries and another round of US political hegemony—instead of supremacy; (2) collapse: interstate rivalry, deglobalisation, financial and economic collapse, ecological disaster, resource wars, and deadly epidemic diseases; and (3) capable, democratic, multilateral and legitimate global governance strongly supported by progressive transnational social movements and global parties, semiperipheral democratic socialist regimes, and important movements and parties in the core and the periphery.

The Next Three Futures, Part Two: Possibilities of Another Round of US Hegemony, Global Collapse, or Global Democracy

Stephen Sanderson’s (2005) ‘World-systems analysis after thirty years: Should it rest in peace?’ raised the prospect of an area of scholarship that had run its course. We answer the five main criticisms that he asserts against world-systems analysis: the primacy of exogenous over endogenous forces; teleology and reification; an incorrect understanding of the role of foreign investment; an inaccurate analysis of long-term trends of inequality; and, a misinterpretation of state socialism. As we respond to his criticisms, we find that while some of his arguments have merit, particularly against the relatively narrow form of world-systems analysis that he considered, his assumption of methodological individualism runs counter to the epistemological position of most world-systems scholars. Our review of the field finds it to be evolving and expanding into new realms that no do not suffer from the deficiencies Sanderson identified. Indeed, now at 35 years and counting, world-systems analysis is not dying, it is thriving.

Alive and well: A response to Sanderson

In this paper we overcome limitations of extant models of long-term social evolution by developing a formal theory that explains the emergence of environmental injustices and movements for environmental protection by incorporating the concept of ecological value, a value derived from the supply and quality of ecological services demanded by a society or group(s) within a society. The theory explains how intraand inter-societal imbalances of political and/or economic power are harnessed to capture distant ecological value in response to selection pressures resulting from reductions in the local level and/or quality of ecological services and in response to the growth of environmental concern. Opposing the continued capture are the same forces that generate it—ecological degradation and ecological concern—the dynamics of which shift along with the scale; as the forces move from the local to the global they lead to a bifurcation point at which either solutions for ecological sustainability are implemented or failure occurs in the form of ecological collapse. We close by considering the ramifications of this model in which the relative levels of these forces shape the future.

The Degradation of Nature and the Growth of Environmental Concern: Toward a Theory of the Capture and Limits of Ecological Value

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