Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo

Screening for Colorectal Cancer: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement

IMPORTANCE Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death in the United States. In 2016, an estimated 134,000 persons will be diagnosed with the disease, and about 49,000 will die from it. Colorectal cancer is most frequently diagnosed among adults aged 65 to 74 years; the median age at death from colorectal cancer is 68 years. OBJECTIVE To update the 2008 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on screening for colorectal cancer. EVIDENCE REVIEW The USPSTF reviewed the evidence on the effectiveness of screening with colonoscopy, flexible sigmoidoscopy, computed tomography colonography, the guaiac-based fecal occult blood test, the fecal immunochemical test, the multitargeted stool DNA test, and the methylated SEPT9 DNA test in reducing the incidence of and mortality from colorectal cancer or all-cause mortality; the harms of these screening tests; and the test performance characteristics of these tests for detecting adenomatous polyps, advanced adenomas based on size, or both, as well as colorectal cancer. The USPSTF also commissioned a comparative modeling study to provide information on optimal starting and stopping ages and screening intervals across the different available screening methods. FINDINGS The USPSTF concludes with high certainty that screening for colorectal cancer in average-risk, asymptomatic adults aged 50 to 75 years is of substantial net benefit. Multiple screening strategies are available to choose from, with different levels of evidence to support their effectiveness, as well as unique advantages and limitations, although there are no empirical data to demonstrate that any of the reviewed strategies provide a greater net benefit. Screening for colorectal cancer is a substantially underused preventive health strategy in the United States. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The USPSTF recommends screening for colorectal cancer starting at age 50 years and continuing until age 75 years (A recommendation). The decision to screen for colorectal cancer in adults aged 76 to 85 years should be an individual one, taking into account the patients overall health and prior screening history (C recommendation).

Projected Effect of Dietary Salt Reductions on Future Cardiovascular Disease

BACKGROUND The U.S. diet is high in salt, with the majority coming from processed foods. Reducing dietary salt is a potentially important target for the improvement of public health. METHODS We used the Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model to quantify the benefits of potentially achievable, population-wide reductions in dietary salt of up to 3 g per day (1200 mg of sodium per day). We estimated the rates and costs of cardiovascular disease in subgroups defined by age, sex, and race; compared the effects of salt reduction with those of other interventions intended to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease; and determined the cost-effectiveness of salt reduction as compared with the treatment of hypertension with medications. RESULTS Reducing dietary salt by 3 g per day is projected to reduce the annual number of new cases of CHD by 60,000 to 120,000, stroke by 32,000 to 66,000, and myocardial infarction by 54,000 to 99,000 and to reduce the annual number of deaths from any cause by 44,000 to 92,000. All segments of the population would benefit, with blacks benefiting proportionately more, women benefiting particularly from stroke reduction, older adults from reductions in CHD events, and younger adults from lower mortality rates. The cardiovascular benefits of reduced salt intake are on par with the benefits of population-wide reductions in tobacco use, obesity, and cholesterol levels. A regulatory intervention designed to achieve a reduction in salt intake of 3 g per day would save 194,000 to 392,000 quality-adjusted life-years and

Racial Differences in Incident Heart Failure among Young Adults

10 billion to

Screening for Depression in Adults: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement

24 billion in health care costs annually. Such an intervention would be cost-saving even if only a modest reduction of 1 g per day were achieved gradually between 2010 and 2019 and would be more cost-effective than using medications to lower blood pressure in all persons with hypertension. CONCLUSIONS Modest reductions in dietary salt could substantially reduce cardiovascular events and medical costs and should be a public health target.

B-Type Natriuretic Peptide and Ischemia in Patients With Stable Coronary Disease: Data From the Heart and Soul Study

BACKGROUND The antecedents and epidemiology of heart failure in young adults are poorly understood. METHODS We prospectively assessed the incidence of heart failure over a 20-year period among 5115 blacks and whites of both sexes who were 18 to 30 years of age at baseline. Using Cox models, we examined predictors of hospitalization or death from heart failure. RESULTS Over the course of 20 years, heart failure developed in 27 participants (mean [+/-SD] age at onset, 39+/-6 years), all but 1 of whom were black. The cumulative incidence of heart failure before the age of 50 years was 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.6 to 1.7) in black women, 0.9% (95% CI, 0.5 to 1.4) in black men, 0.08% (95% CI, 0.0 to 0.5) in white women, and 0% (95% CI, 0 to 0.4) in white men (P=0.001 for the comparison of black participants and white participants). Among blacks, independent predictors at 18 to 30 years of age of heart failure occurring 15 years, on average, later included higher diastolic blood pressure (hazard ratio per 10.0 mm Hg, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.4 to 3.1), higher body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) (hazard ratio per 5.7 units, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0 to 1.9), lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (hazard ratio per 13.3 mg per deciliter [0.34 mmol per liter], 0.6; 95% CI, 0.4 to 1.0), and kidney disease (hazard ratio, 19.8; 95% CI, 4.5 to 87.2). Three quarters of those in whom heart failure subsequently developed had hypertension by the time they were 40 years of age. Depressed systolic function, as assessed on a study echocardiogram when the participants were 23 to 35 years of age, was independently associated with the development of heart failure 10 years, on average, later (hazard ratio for abnormal systolic function, 36.9; 95% CI, 6.9 to 198.3; hazard ratio for borderline systolic function, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.2 to 10.2). Myocardial infarction, drug use, and alcohol use were not associated with the risk of heart failure. CONCLUSIONS Incident heart failure before 50 years of age is substantially more common among blacks than among whites. Hypertension, obesity, and systolic dysfunction that are present before a person is 35 years of age are important antecedents that may be targets for the prevention of heart failure. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00005130.)

Future Cardiovascular Disease in China Markov Model and Risk Factor Scenario Projections From the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model–China

DESCRIPTION Update of the 2009 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on screening for depression in adults. METHODS The USPSTF reviewed the evidence on the benefits and harms of screening for depression in adult populations, including older adults and pregnant and postpartum women; the accuracy of depression screening instruments; and the benefits and harms of depression treatment in these populations. POPULATION This recommendation applies to adults 18 years and older. RECOMMENDATION The USPSTF recommends screening for depression in the general adult population, including pregnant and postpartum women. Screening should be implemented with adequate systems in place to ensure accurate diagnosis, effective treatment, and appropriate follow-up. (B recommendation).

Aspirin Use for the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Colorectal Cancer: U.S. Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement

Background—In patients with symptoms of heart failure, elevations in B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) accurately identify ventricular dysfunction. However, BNP levels are not specific for ventricular dysfunction in patients who do not have overt symptoms of heart failure, suggesting that other cardiac processes such as myocardial ischemia may also cause elevations in BNP. Methods and Results—To determine whether BNP elevations are associated with myocardial ischemia, we measured plasma BNP levels before performing exercise treadmill testing with stress echocardiography in outpatients with stable coronary disease. Of the 355 participants, 113 (32%) had inducible ischemia. Compared with participants in the lowest BNP quartile (0 to 16.4 pg/mL), those in the highest quartile of BNP (≥105 pg/mL) had double the risk of inducible ischemia (adjusted relative risk, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.2 to 2.6; P =0.008). The relation between elevated BNP levels and inducible ischemia was especially evident in the 206 participants who had a history of myocardial infarction (adjusted relative risk, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.5 to 3.7, P =0.002) and was absent in those without a history of myocardial infarction (adjusted relative risk, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.3 to 2.2; P =0.9). This association between BNP levels and inducible ischemia remained strong after adjustment for measures of systolic and diastolic dysfunction. Conclusions—Elevated levels of BNP are independently associated with inducible ischemia among outpatients with stable coronary disease, particularly among those with a history of myocardial infarction. The observed association between BNP levels and ischemia may explain why tests for BNP are not specific for ventricular dysfunction among patients with coronary disease.

Comparing Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Primary Prevention Strategies for Lipid-Lowering

Background—The relative effects of individual and combined risk factor trends on future cardiovascular disease in China have not been quantified in detail. Methods and Results—Future risk factor trends in China were projected based on prior trends. Cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease and stroke) in adults ages 35 to 84 years was projected from 2010 to 2030 using the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model–China, a Markov computer simulation model. With risk factor levels held constant, projected annual cardiovascular events increased by >50% between 2010 and 2030 based on population aging and growth alone. Projected trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes (increases), and active smoking (decline) would increase annual cardiovascular disease events by an additional 23%, an increase of approximately 21.3 million cardiovascular events and 7.7 million cardiovascular deaths over 2010 to 2030. Aggressively reducing active smoking in Chinese men to 20% prevalence in 2020 and 10% prevalence in 2030 or reducing mean systolic blood pressure by 3.8 mm Hg in men and women would counteract adverse trends in other risk factors by preventing cardiovascular events and 2.9 to 5.7 million total deaths over 2 decades. Conclusions—Aging and population growth will increase cardiovascular disease by more than a half over the coming 20 years, and projected unfavorable trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes, and body mass index may accelerate the epidemic. National policy aimed at controlling blood pressure, smoking, and other risk factors would counteract the expected future cardiovascular disease epidemic in China.

Predictors of Heart Failure Among Women With Coronary Disease

DESCRIPTION Update of the 2009 USPSTF recommendation on aspirin use to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and the 2007 recommendation on aspirin and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use to prevent colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS The USPSTF reviewed 5 additional studies of aspirin for the primary prevention of CVD and several additional analyses of CRC follow-up data. The USPSTF also relied on commissioned systematic reviews of all-cause mortality and total cancer incidence and mortality and a comprehensive review of harms. The USPSTF then used a microsimulation model to systematically estimate the balance of benefits and harms. POPULATION This recommendation applies to adults aged 40 years or older without known CVD and without increased bleeding risk. RECOMMENDATIONS The USPSTF recommends initiating low-dose aspirin use for the primary prevention of CVD and CRC in adults aged 50 to 59 years who have a 10% or greater 10-year CVD risk, are not at increased risk for bleeding, have a life expectancy of at least 10 years, and are willing to take low-dose aspirin daily for at least 10 years. (B recommendation) The decision to initiate low-dose aspirin use for the primary prevention of CVD and CRC in adults aged 60 to 69 years who have a 10% or greater 10-year CVD risk should be an individual one. Persons who are not at increased risk for bleeding, have a life expectancy of at least 10 years, and are willing to take low-dose aspirin daily for at least 10 years are more likely to benefit. Persons who place a higher value on the potential benefits than the potential harms may choose to initiate low-dose aspirin. (C recommendation) The current evidence is insufficient to assess the balance of benefits and harms of initiating aspirin use for the primary prevention of CVD and CRC in adults younger than 50 years. (I statement) The current evidence is insufficient to assess the balance of benefits and harms of initiating aspirin use for the primary prevention of CVD and CRC in adults aged 70 years or older. (I statement).

Epidemiology of incident heart failure in a contemporary elderly cohort: the health, aging, and body composition study.

Context Which lipid-lowering policies with statins are cost-effective? Contribution This modeling exercise found that the Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines, which recommend treatment based on cholesterol level and estimated coronary heart disease risk, are reasonably cost-effective if statins cost about