Kirsten Lommatzsch

The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: Myth or reality?

This paper studies the Balassa-Samuelson effect in nine Central and East European countries. Using panel cointegration techniques, we find that productivity growth in the open sector leads to inflation in non-tradable goods. Because of the low share of non-tradables and the high share of food items in addition to regulated prices, the consumer price index is misleading when analyzing the Balassa-Samuelson effect. Consequently, the appreciation of the real exchange rate, which has been established as a stylized fact over the last decade, is caused only partly by the Balassa-Samuelson effect. We identify a trend increase in the prices of tradable goods as a contributing explanation.

Equilibrium exchange rates in the transition : the tradable price-based real appreciation and estimation uncertainty

This paper sets out to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. A theoretical model is developed that provides an explanation for the appreciation of the real exchange rate based on tradable prices in the acceding countries. Our model can be considered as a competing but also completing framework to the traditional Balassa-Samuelson model. With this as a background, alternative cointegration methods are applied to time series (Engle-Granger, DOLS, ARDL and Johansen) and to three small-size panels (pooled and fixed effect OLS, DOLS, PMGE and MGE), which leaves us with around 5,000 estimated regressions. This enables us to examine the uncertainty surrounding estimates of equilibrium real exchange rates and the size of the underlying real misalignments.

Price Convergence in the Enlarged Internal Market

In this paper we investigate the effects of EU enlargement on price convergence. The internal market is expected to boost integration and increase efficiency and welfare through a convergence of prices in product markets. Two principal drivers are crucial to explain price developments. On the one hand, higher competition exerts a downward pressure on prices because of lower mark ups. On the other hand, the catching up process of low income countries leads to a rise in the price levels and higher inflation over a transition period. Using comparative price levels for individual product categories price convergence can be established. However, the speed of convergence is rather slow, with half lives around 10 years. The enlargement has slightly stimulated the convergence process, and this impact is robust across different groups of countries. Moreover, the driving forces of convergence are explored. In line with theoretical predictions, the rise in competition exerts a downward pressure on prices, Chile catching up of low income countries leads to a rise in price levels

Bond Yield Compression in the Countries Converging to the Euro

We demonstrate that bond yield compression is under way in the countries converging to the euro and that German yields are significant drivers of local currency yields. Based on the evidence from Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, we conclude that these new Member States of the European Union are ready to adopt the euro without risking a disruptive shock to their financial stability. This message transpires from investigating the daily volatility dynamics of local bond yields as a function of German yields, conditional on changes in local term spreads, exchange rates and adjustments to central bank reference rates. Similar results of high sensitivity of local currency bond yields to changes in German yields are obtained from testing monthly series of macroeconomic fundamentals. These findings provide evidence of the potential usefulness of term spreads as indicators of monetary convergence.