Kiyomi Morino

Understanding uncertainties in future Colorado River streamflow

The Colorado River is the primary water source for more than 30 million people in the United States and Mexico. Recent studies that project streamf low changes in the Colorado River all project annual declines, but the magnitude of the projected decreases range from less than 10% to 45% by the mid-twenty-first century. To understand these differences, we address the questions the management community has raised: Why is there such a wide range of projections of impacts of future climate change on Colorado River streamflow, and how should this uncertainty be interpreted? We identify four major sources of disparities among studies that arise from both methodological and model differences. In order of importance, these are differences in 1) the global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios used; 2) the ability of land surface and atmospheric models to simulate properly the high-elevation runoff source areas; 3) the sensitivities of land surface hydrology models to precipitation and temperature changes; ...

An Empirical Algorithm for Estimating Agricultural and Riparian Evapotranspiration Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index and Ground Measurements of ET. I. Description of Method

We used the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from MODIS to scale evapotranspiration (ETactual) over agricultural and riparian areas along the Lower Colorado River in the southwestern US. Ground measurements of ETactual by alfalfa, saltcedar, cottonwood and arrowweed were expressed as fraction of potential (reference crop) ETo (EToF) then regressed against EVI scaled between bare soil (0) and full vegetation cover (1.0) (EVI*). EVI* values were calculated based on maximum and minimum EVI values from a large set of riparian values in a previous study. A satisfactory relationship was found between crop and riparian plant EToF and EVI*, with an error or uncertainty of about 20% in the mean estimate (mean ETactual = 6.2 mm d−1, RMSE = 1.2 mm d−1). The equation for ETactual was: ETactual = 1.22 × ETo-BC × EVI*, where ETo-BC is the Blaney Criddle formula for ETo. This single algorithm applies to all the vegetation types in the study, and offers an alternative to ETactual estimates that use crop coefficients set by expert opinion, by using an algorithm based on the actual state of the canopy as determined by time-series satellite images.

Increasing influence of air temperature on upper Colorado River streamflow

This empirical study examines the influence of precipitation, temperature, and antecedent soil moisture on upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) water year streamflow over the past century. While cool season precipitation explains most of the variability in annual flows, temperature appears to be highly influential under certain conditions, with the role of antecedent fall soil moisture less clear. In both wet and dry years, when flow is substantially different than expected given precipitation, these factors can modulate the dominant precipitation influence on streamflow. Different combinations of temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture can result in flow deficits of similar magnitude, but recent droughts have been amplified by warmer temperatures that exacerbate the effects of relatively modest precipitation deficits. Since 1988, a marked increase in the frequency of warm years with lower flows than expected, given precipitation, suggests continued warming temperatures will be an increasingly important influence in reducing future UCRB water supplies.

An Empirical Algorithm for Estimating Agricultural and Riparian Evapotranspiration Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index and Ground Measurements of ET. II. Application to the Lower Colorado River, U.S.

Abstract: Large quantities of water are consumed by irrigated crops and riparian vegetation in western U.S. irrigation districts. Remote sensing methods for estimating evaporative water losses by soil and vegetation (evapotranspiration, ET) over wide river stretches are needed to allocate water for agricultural and environmental needs. We used the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from MODIS sensors on the Terra satellite to scale ET over agricultural and riparian areas along the Lower Colorado River in the southwestern U.S., using a linear regression equation between ET of riparian plants and alfalfa measured on the ground, and meteorological and remote sensing data, with an error or uncertainty of about 20%. The algorithm was applied to irrigation districts and riparian areas from Lake Mead to the U.S./Mexico border. The results for agricultural crops were similar to results produced by crop coefficients developed for the irrigation districts along the river. However, riparian ET was only half as great as crop coefficient estimates set by expert opinion, equal to about 40% of reference crop evapotranspiration. Based on reported acreages in 2007, agricultural crops (146,473 ha) consumed 2.2 × 10

Carbon and oxygen isotope fractionations in tree rings reveal interactions between cambial phenology and seasonal climate: Tree ring isotopes aligned with cambial phenology

We developed novel approaches for using the isotope composition of tree-ring subdivisions to study seasonal dynamics in tree-climate relations. Across a 30-year time series, the δ13 C and δ18 O values of the earlywood (EW) cellulose in the annual rings of Pinus ponderosa reflected relatively high intrinsic water-use efficiencies and high evaporative fractionation of 18 O/16 O, respectively, compared with the false latewood (FLW), summerwood (SW), and latewood (LW) subdivisions. This result is counterintuitive, given the spring origins of the EW source water and midsummer origins of the FLW, SW, and LW. With the use of the Craig-Gordon (CG), isotope-climate model revealed that the isotope ratios in all of the ring subdivision are explained by the existence of seasonal lags, lasting several weeks, between the initial formation of tracheids and the production of cellulosic secondary cell walls during maturation. In contrast to some past studies, modification of the CG model according to conventional methods to account for mixing of needle water between fractionated and nonfractionated sources did not improve the accuracy of predictions. Our results reveal new potential in the use of tree-ring isotopes to reconstruct past intra-annual tree-climate relations if lags in cambial phenology are reconciled with isotope ratio observations and included in theoretical treatments.