Kiyoung Son

Predicting hurricane wind damage by claim payout based on Hurricane Ike in Texas

ABSTRACT The increasing occurrence of natural disasters and their related damage have led to a growing demand for models that predict financial loss. Although considerable research on the financial losses related to natural disasters has found significant predictors, there has been a lack of comprehensive study that addresses the relationship among vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and the economic losses of individual buildings. This study identifies the vulnerability indicators for hurricanes to establish a metric to predict the related financial loss. We classify hurricane-prone areas by highlighting the spatial distribution of losses and vulnerabilities. This study used a Geographical Information System (GIS) to combine and produce spatial data and a multiple regression method to establish a wind damage prediction model. As the dependent variable, we used the value of the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA) claim payout divided by the appraised values of the buildings to predict real economic loss. As independent variables, we selected a hurricane indicator and built environment vulnerability indicators. The model we developed can be used by government agencies and insurance companies to predict hurricane wind damage.

Current trends and future directions of free-form building technology

Recently, three-dimensional design and computerized numeric control shaping technology have been applied to most free-form buildings, and materials like iron, timber, expanded polystyrene, and textiles have been used in formwork. However, these techniques have been found to incur costs at least 10 times the budgeted amounts, in most cases because the forms or moulds used to produce free-form concrete segments were used only once and could not be recycled, and it took a lot of time and workers to produce them, resulting in reduced productivity and increased construction cost and time. To solve these problems, this study investigates the status of free-form concrete buildings and suggests directions for future technology development. Following these suggestions would enable manageable construction cost and time in the future design of free-form buildings.

Estimating the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association claim payout of commercial buildings from Hurricane Ike

Following growing public awareness of the danger from hurricanes and tremendous demands for analysis of loss, many researchers have conducted studies to develop hurricane damage analysis methods. Although researchers have identified the significant indicators, there is currently a shortage of comprehensive research for identifying the relationship among the vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and insured losses associated with individual buildings. To address this lack of research, this study will identify vulnerabilities and hazard indicators, develop metrics to measure the influence of economic losses from hurricanes, and visualize the spatial distribution of vulnerability to evaluate overall hurricane damage. This paper has utilized the Geographic Information System to facilitate collecting and managing data, and has combined vulnerability factors to assess the financial losses suffered by Texas coastal counties. A multiple regression method has been applied to develop hurricane damage prediction models. To reflect the pecuniary loss, insured loss payment was used as the dependent variable to predict the actual financial damage. Exposures, built environment vulnerability indicators, and hazard indicators were all used as independent variables. Accordingly, the models and findings may possibly provide vital references for government agencies and emergency planners to establish the hurricane damage mitigation strategies. In addition, insurance companies could utilize the model to predict hurricane damage.

Loss Prediction Model for Building Construction Projects Using Insurance Claim Payout

The amount of risk and the occurrence of damage in construction projects have increased as construction projects are becoming larger and more complex, increasing the demands for an effective risk assessment model. Therefore, quantitative risk analysis is needed to develop a financial risk assessment model using the risk indicators for construction projects. To address this need, authors analyzed the damage records of actual construction sites in South Korea, in order to identify the critical risk factors of damage and investigate the relationships among the risk indicators to develop a loss prediction model. Authors used claim payout records from an insurance company to reflect real financial loss as the dependent variable. As independent variables, authors adopted four risk categories based on our literature review and data analysis: natural hazards, geographic information, construction method and ability, and construction information. Our loss prediction model for construction projects, along with our findings, offers fundamental guidelines for construction companies, construction project owners, and insurance companies hoping to model and predict financial loss for building construction projects.

Economic Analysis of Korea Green Building Certification System in the Capital Area Using House-Values Index

Abstract Since 1980, there have been widespread efforts by international organizations, governments, and research centers to achieve sustainable development. In Korea, green building certification has been developed and adopted for various types of buildings. However, although research has been conducted regarding the economic benefits of the Korean green building certification system, no research efforts have compared the average house-values between green building certified and non-certified buildings. In addition, there is a lack of research concerning the impact of public transit on the average house-values in certified green buildings. The objective of this study is to investigate the economic benefits of green certified buildings using the average house-values index and to identify how proximity to public transit affects building values. According to the findings, house-values are higher for green certified buildings than for non-certified buildings. Furthermore, house values increase with proximity to bus stops. These results reflect the potential economic gain from a utilization of the Korean green building certification system (K-GBCS). In addition, by illustrating the economic benefits of the system, this study could encourage major stakeholders to use the K-GBCS.

Development of a Maintenance and Repair Cost Estimation Model for Educational Buildings Using Regression Analysis

The aim of this study is to identify key performance indicators as well as the correlations among these indicators to develop a maintenance and repair cost estimation model for educational buildings based on actual payment records. The importance of financial estimation for facility management systems has increased. Especially, the estimation of maintenance and repair costs is essential to facility management for educational buildings considering the long-life cycle of a building. However, data regarding facility management is still limited. This study adopts payment records related to maintenance and repair work from educational institutions to develop a quantitative approach. Statistical analyses and a multiple regression analysis are conducted to examine the record and generate a cost estimation model. The findings and results of this study provide a guide for maintenance and repair cost estimation of integrated facility management and could be used as a guideline for budgeting for school maintenance.

Assessing regional typhoon risk of disaster management by clustering typhoon paths

Many countries are affected by typhoons and cyclones. Huge damages are caused by these natural disasters. Therefore, loss prediction models are required to ensure that society remains resilient to natural disasters, including typhoons. Although previous studies have focused on identifying strategies for mitigating typhoon damages, the relationships between the characteristics of the built environment and the extent of typhoon damages have not been sufficiently examined. The purpose of this study is to identify the features of typhoon damages and to develop a metric for estimating the impact of built environment vulnerability on financial loss using the data of types 1 and 2 typhoons. Typhoon damage data (loss ratios) recorded at the provincial level were used as the dependent variable. The independent variables were categorized into two types: typhoon characteristics and built environment indicators. The results obtained from the regression models showed that the loss ratios of type 1 typhoons were correlated with wind speed, rainfall, and number of cutting slopes, while the extent of financial loss caused by type 2 typhoons was mainly correlated with the meteorological indicators. The results obtained with the loss prediction models developed in this study would help public disaster managers develop different strategies for typhoon risk mitigation.

Revealing building vulnerability to windstorms through an insurance claim payout prediction model: a case study in South Korea

ABSTRACT The aim of this study is to develop regional vulnerability functions of buildings to estimate the loss from windstorms. Windstorms trigger critical financial damage to assets around the world. Insurance companies assess the financial risk of their exposures by employing windstorm risk assessment models. The vulnerability function in the risk assessment model is generally based on the analysis of actual damage records from insurance companies. However, the absence of detailed loss data is an obstacle to developing vulnerability functions. To fill this gap, this study provides a methodology to develop a function using an insurance companys loss data associated with windstorms. Vulnerability functions are generated based on the wind speed, line of business, and value of the property. The findings and methodology of this study offer a practical way of reflecting the real economic losses and regional vulnerability of buildings and help to develop vulnerability functions for insurance companies and emergency planners.

An Analysis of City Gas Consumption According to the Building Orientation of Apartment Buildings - Focused on a Case in Ulsan -

Abstract Effective energy management of buildings is currently necessary because of accelerated global climate change and impending resource crises. In particular, in the case of South Korea, city gas consumption makes up 11.8% of the total energy; 39.6% of this energy is used residentially. Therefore, in order to reduce city gas consumption, more effective residential use is needed. To address this issue, the objective of this study is to analyze the differences in city gas consumption according to the building orientation in apartment buildings; in South Korea, these types of buildings are almost exclusively residential. To achieve this objective, an apartment complex with over 1,000 households was selected. Then, the real city gas usage data in households of either 59.97m2 or 84.96m2 were collected. Next, according to the building orientation (i.e., whether the household is south-east or south-west facing), the data were analyzed statistically. As a result, in the 59.97m2 and 84.96m2 households, the total city gas used in 2012 was 9.2% and 8.4% greater, respectively, in south-west facing apartments compared with households facing south-east. These results were proven to be statistically significant using the analysis of variance (ANOVA). In the future, the findings of this study can be used to develop prediction models for city gas consumption in apartment buildings.

Predicting Appraised Value of Parcels of Harris County, Texas Using LEED Criteria for Public Transportation Access

Abstract The objective of this study is to determine if the appraised unit value (