Klaus Grobys

Is the Asset Growth Anomaly Driven by Macroeconomic States

ABSTRACT This study examines the asset growth anomaly in the presence of different macroeconomic states. The results show that the asset growth effect is strongly associated with macroeconomic conditions. When the economy is quiet, the spread between low and high investment firms is small and insignificant. In times of economic stress, the spread is economically large and statistically significant. The results support risk-based explanations for the asset growth effect in line with q-theory.

An Empirical Analysis of Changes of the Impact of Federal Budget Deficits on Stock Market Returns: Evidence from the US Economy

We investigate the causality between the real federal budget deficit returns and real stock market returns for the US economy. We divide the overall sample into two sub-samples running from 1968:1 to 1988:3 and from 1988:4 to 2011:3. In contrast to earlier studies, we find a significant positive relationship between real stock market returns and real federal budget deficit returns for both samples. Moreover, we find that the stochastic interrelations between these variables have considerably changed over time.

Momentum, sovereign credit ratings and global equity markets

This article investigates the link between momentum-based trading strategies implemented in global equity markets and country-specific credit ratings. The findings indicate that only the momentum strategy based on intermediate past returns generate statistically significant profits. Notably, the winner portfolios exhibit a higher average credit rating than the other portfolio groups. Surprisingly, neither global asset pricing models nor a conducted world credit risk factor can explain these profits.

Are Momentum Crashes Pervasive Regardless of Strategy? Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market

This paper studies the option-like behavior of popular momentum strategies implemented in foreign exchange markets. The results confirm those of Daniel and Moskowitz (2013) in finding strong option-like behavior for both momentum measures, based on the cumulative return from 12 and 6 months prior to the formation date to one month prior to the formation date. Surprisingly, there is no such evidence for the popular momentum strategy accounting for a one-month formation period.

Is Currency Momentum a Hedge for Global Economic Risk

This article investigates the potential link between momentum in currency returns and global economic risk as measured by currency return dispersion (RD). We find that the spread on zero-cost currency momentum strategies is larger and highly significant in high RD states compared to low RD states. Also, the relation between these momentum payoffs and global economic risk appears to increase linearly in risk. Further tests indicate that the same macroeconomic risk component in currency markets is present in global equity markets. Based on this evidence, we conclude that global economic risk as proxied by RD helps to explain currency momentum profits.This article documents a robust link between the returns of the momentum anomaly implemented in currency markets and global economic risk, measured by the currency return dispersion (RD). We find the spread of the zero-cost momentum strategy to be significantly larger in high RD states compared to low RD states. The relation between momentum payoffs and global economic risk appears to increase linearly in risk. Notably, the results provide strong evidence that the same global economic risk component is present in equity markets.

Return Dispersion and Investment Anomalies

Recent research finds that cross-sectional return dispersion provides a risk-based explanation for some investment anomalies, including accrual, investment, and momentum strategies. This study extends the analyses of return dispersion to a broad set of anomalies by testing whether the state of return dispersion is associated with anomalous returns. Empirical results for 12 well-known anomalies indicate a robust link between good and bad states of return dispersion and most anomalies. Also, return dispersion helps to explain a number anomalies regardless of their association with investor sentiment. We conclude that market risk related to return dispersion plays an important role in many investment anomalies.

Risk-Managed 52-Week High Industry Momentum, Momentum Crashes, and Hedging Macroeconomic Risk

This is the first study to investigate the profitability of Barroso and Santa-Clara’s (2015) risk-managing approach for George and Hwang’s (2004) 52-week high momentum strategy in an industrial portfolio setting. The findings indicate that risk-managing adds value as the Sharpe ratio increases, and the downside risk decreases notably. Even after controlling for the spread of the traditional 52-week high industry momentum strategy in association with standard risk factors, the risk-managed version generates economically and statistically significant payoffs. Notably, the risk-managed strategy is partially explained by changes in cross-sectional return dispersion, whereas the traditional strategy does not appear to be exposed to such economic risks.

Finite Sample Sizes of the GRS Test in the Presence of Dynamic Correlation and Conditional Heteroskedasticity

This paper investigates the finite sample properties of the widely-used Gibbons, Ross, Shanken (1989) (GRS) test in the presence of both conditional correlation and conditional heteroskedasticity. It finds that the GRS test exhibits serious size distortions resulting in potentially misleading statistical inferences. The correct critical values, as reported in the study, are considerably larger than suggested by the GRS test.

Another Look at Value and Momentum: Volatility Spillovers

This paper examines volatility interdependencies between value and momentum returns. Using U.S. data over the period 1926-2015, we document persistent periods of low and high volatility spillovers between value and momentum strategies. Moreover, we find that the intensity of the volatility spillovers may change substantially in very short periods of time and that these shifts in spillover intensity can be linked to prominent economic events and financial market turmoil. Our results further demonstrate that value returns increase and momentum returns decrease monotonically with increasing volatility spillovers between the two strategies. Given this linkage between spillover intensity and returns, we propose a simple trading strategy which utilizes a volatility spillover index for allocating funds between value and momentum portfolios. The proposed trading strategy outperforms value and momentum strategies and generates payoffs that are not subject to option-like behavior.

Corruption, Carry Trades, and the Cross Section of Currency Returns

This is the first paper to explore the effects of perceived corruption on the FX market. It finds that the currencies of countries perceived to suffer from high levels of corruption generate statistically significantly lower returns than the currencies of countries perceived to have low levels of corruption. Moreover, the portfolio spread is highly correlated with NBER recessions and U.S. consumption growth of nondurable goods. Interestingly, stochastic discount factor model analysis reveals that the portfolio spread is useful for pricing the cross section of currency returns, even when controlling for standard FX risk factors.