Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel

What Drives Private Saving Around the World

The authors investigate the policy and non-policy factors behind saving disparities, using a large panel data set and an encompassing approach including several relevant determinants of private saving. They extend the literature in several dimensions, by: 1) Using the largest data set on aggregate saving assembled to date. 2) Using panel instrumental variable techniques to correct for endogeneity and heterogeneity. 3) Performing robustness checks on changes in estimation procedures, data samples, and model specification. Their main empirical findings: a) Private saving rates show considerable inertia (are highly serially correlated even after controlling for other relevant factors). b) Private sector rates rise with the level and growth rate of real per capita income. So policies that spur development are in indirect but effective way to raise private saving rates. c) Predictions of the life-cycle hypothesis are supported in that dependency ratios generally have a negative effect on private saving rates. d) The precautionary motive for saving is supported by the finding that inflation - conventionally taken as a summary measure of macroeconomic volatility - has a positive impact on private saving, holding other facts constant. e) Fiscal policy is a moderately effective tool for raising national saving. F) the direct effect of financial liberalization are largely detrimental to private saving rates. Greater availability of credit reduces the private saving rate; financial depth and higher real interest rates do not increase saving.

Inflation targeting in Chile

Abstract Chile was the second country in the world to adopt inflation targeting (IT), setting its first annual target in September 1990. IT was used as a device to bring inflation gradually down to a stationary 3% level. This paper analyzes four main questions, exploiting Chile’s long IT experience. Is Chile’s experience different from that of other countries that have adopted IT during the 1990s? Has IT contributed to monetary policy credibility in Chile? Does the monetary authority exhibit fear of floating? Is the Central Bank’s monetary policy function consistent with the goals of IT? The evidence reported in this paper shows that credibility grew as inflation targets were attained, that there is little “fear of floating,” and that monetary policy has evolved according to the strengthening of IT and attainment of stationary inflation.

Inflation Targeting in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico: Performance, Credibility, and the Exchange Rate

Inflation targeting (IT) has been adopted by a growing number of countries and Latin America has been part of this world trend. This paper reviews the recent IT experiences of Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, applying a common empirical framework to the three country cases. Inflation performance under IT and its associated output costs are reported and compared favorably to a control group of other countries. The paper analyzes ways by which IT has contributed to strengthen credibility: the effect of targets on inflation expectations and on actual inflation, the low influence of inflation shocks on core inflation, and the decline in inflation forecast errors. Do the three inflation targeters exhibit fear of floating? No, considering their relatively large exchange rate volatility and moderate international reserve holdings. No, considering strongly declining inflation-to-devaluation passthrough coefficients and little evidence for monetary policy reaction to exchange rate shocks. Yes, considering the frequency and intensity of sterilized exchange interventions in comparison to other inflation targeters that float more cleanly.

Pension Reform and Growth

The authors review the qualitative macroeconomic and welfare implications of replacing a pay-as-you-go pension system with a fully funded scheme. They summarize the typically small effects found in the simulations literature, based on exogenous-growth one-sector models. Much larger, and sustained, effects are obtained in the framework of an overlapping-generations model with endogenous growth and formal-informal production sectors - the model presented in this paper. Model simulations using the overlapping-generations model suggest that replacing a pay-as-you-go system with a fully funded system could substantially raise long-term growth rates by eliminating the incentives (under the pay-as-you-go system) to informalize production and employment. A final look at Chiles reform experience suggest that a structural transformation toward formalization is taking place and that both private savings and growth have been rising substantially since 1980. Econometric evidence suggests that Chiles pension reform, in 1981, could be contributing toward Chiles large increase in private savings.

Does income inequality raise aggregate saving

This paper reviews analytically and empirically the links between income distribution and aggregate saving. Consumption theory brings out a number of direct channels through which income inequality can affect overall household saving -- positively in most cases. However, recent political-economy theory points toward indirect, negative effects of inequality -- through investment, growth, and public saving -- on aggregate saving. On theoretical grounds the sign of the saving-inequality link is therefore ambiguous. This paper presents new empirical evidence on the relationship between income distribution and aggregate saving, based on a new and improved income distribution database for both industrial and developing countries. The empirical results, using alternative inequality and saving measures and various econometric specifications on both cross-section and panel data, provide no support for the notion that income inequality has any systematic effect on aggregate saving. These findings are consistent with the theoretical ambiguity but contrast with previous empirical literature that found a positive cross-country association between income inequality and aggregate saving.

Money Demand and Seigniorage-Maximizing Inflation

Conventional estimates of the seigniorage-maximizing inflation rate often make use of the Cagan form, which implies a constant semielasticity of money demand with respect to inflation. This paper shows that the elasticity of substitution in transactions between money and bonds determines how the inflation semielasticity of money demand changes as inflation rises. Allowing for a variable semielasticity, estimates of seigniorage-maximizing inflation for a panel of eleven high-inflation countries are lower than those obtained by using the Cagan form. Estimates based on the correct measure of the opportunity cost of money also differ sharply from those obtained when using conventional inflation measures. Copyright 1995 by Ohio State University Press.

How Effective is Fiscal Policy in Raising National Saving

While fiscal adjustment is commonly viewed as the cornerstone of macroeconomic stabilization, the effectiveness of alternative fiscal instruments in raising national saving is still poorly understood. This paper enters the debate by estimating a private consumption function that allows for two types of agentsfinite horizons and liquidity constraintsand nests three different consumption hypotheses. Using a large-panel data set that includes both industrial and developing countries, we reject full Ricardian equivalence. We also find substantial differences between industrial and developing countries, regarding both the extent of Ricardian offsetting and the degree to which the government budget constraint is internalized.

Monetary Union: European Lessons, Latin American Prospects

In this paper selective issues of long-run sustainability of monetary unions are analyzed. Using theoretical insights and the experience of EMU up to now we argue that empirical evidence on OCA criteria for EMU suggests that benefits for the countries participating in EMU outweigh costs by a relatively large margin although by varying degrees from country to country. Fiscal policy rules are necessary for EMU to succeed. We also conclude that EMU has been driven by political considerations. A sound financial sector is a precondition. With regard to lessons to be drawn for Latin America and the Caribbean we first find that there has been a strong push towards the floating cum inflation-targeting corner and to regional trade integration. Moreover, it seems that, in contrast to EMU, the benefit-cost balance of a move to monetary union is much less favorable in Latin America and the Caribbean and, most important, the political dimension missing.

The economics of saving and growth : theory, evidence, and implications for policy

Foreword Joseph Stiglitz 1. Introduction 2. Saving in the world: the stylized facts Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel 3. Saving and growth Luis Serven 4. Financial policies and saving Angus Deaton 5. Foreign resource inflows, saving and growth Patrick Honohan 6. Aggregate saving and income distribution Maurice Obstfeld.

The role of credibility in the cyclical properties of macroeconomic policies in emerging economies

Optimal stabilization policy is countercyclical, aiming at keeping output close to its potential. However it has been traditionally argued that emerging countries are unable to adopt countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies. Here we argue that the cyclical properties of macroeconomic policies depend critically on policy credibility. We test this proposition by making use of recent panel data for eleven emerging market economies and time series data for Chile. The evidence supports that countries with higher credibility, as reflected by lower country risk levels, are able to conduct countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies. Conversely, countries with less credible policies (and, therefore, with higher country risk spreads) contribute to larger cyclical fluctuations by applying procyclical policies. For Chile we find that both monetary and fiscal policies have been largely countercyclical after 1993. JEL no. E43, E52, E62