Konstantin Korotenko

Prediction of the Transport and Dispersal of Oil in the South Caspian Sea Resulting from Blowouts

A 3-D hybrid flow/transport model is developed to predict the dispersal of oil pollution in coastal waters. The transport module of the model takes predetermined current and turbulent diffusivities and uses Lagrangian tracking to predict the motion of individual particles (droplets), the sum of which constitutes a hypothetical oil spill. Currents and turbulent diffusivities used in the model are generated by a numerical ocean circulation model (POM) implemented for the Caspian Sea. The basic processes affecting the fate of the oil spill are taken into account and parameterised in the transport model. The process of evaporation is modeled with the pseudo-component approach. The model is implemented for a simulated continuous release in the coastal waters of the south part of the Caspian Sea. Numerical experiments simulate 5- and 10-day blowout scenarios resulting from sources situated in areas were intensive and extensive development of oil deposits is expected soon. Oil slick movement and risk of coastline contamination by beaching of offshore oil spills are illustrated for different wind conditions.

Spectral structure of horizontal water movement in shallow seas with special reference to the North Sea, as related to the dispersion of dissolved matter

The spectral structure of horizontal water movements in a shallow sea like the North Sea is reflected in the horizontal spreading phenomena. In the present paper results from tracer experiments in the North Sea are combined with model simulations in order to improve the insight in the relative importance of the variations in the horizontal water movements, the vertical shear dispersion and the 3D turbulence. It is tried to obtain estimates of the kinetic energy spectrum of the horizontal eddies. The analysis of the role of the main mechanisms of mixing and dispersion also applies to other shallow tidal seas, and to an extent, to the mixed upper layer of the oceans. The models used are briefly described.

An Automated System for Prediction of Icing on the Road

During the period from late autumn to early spring, vast areas in North America, Western Europe, and many other countries experience frequent snow, sleet, ice, and frost. Such adverse weather conditions lead to dangerous driving conditions with consequential effects on road transportation in these areas. A numerical forecasting system is developed for automatic prediction of slippery road conditions at road station sites in northern Europe and North America. The system is based on a road conditions model forced by input from an operational atmospheric limited area model. Synoptic information on cloud cover and observations of temperature, humidity, water and ice on the road from the road station sites are taken into account in a sophisticated initialization procedure involving flux corrections for individual locations. The system is run initially at the Rhode Island University with promising results. Currently, new forecasts 3 h ahead are produced every 20 minutes for 14 road station sites.

On Risk Assessment and Sustainable Industrial Development of Shelf Zones

Shelf zones of the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea become quickly major areas of industrial and technological development owing to growing population in these regions and vast natural resources available in these areas. Understanding and assessment of risks of natural and human‐made hazards in these areas contributes to strengthening the scientific and technological basis of a number of industries. Results of numerical modeling of the pollution transport and dispersal in the Caspian Sea are reported in this paper. Also we discuss applications of the observation system designed on drilling platforms to monitor coastal zone geophysical and ecological hazards. Our modeling and monitoring system can provide a reliable control of ecological situation in coastal zones of the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea and forecast possible hazardous changes.