Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

Large Portfolio Asymptotics for Loss From Default

We prove a law of large numbers for the loss from default and use it for approximating the distribution of the loss from default in large, potentially heterogeneous portfolios. The density of the limiting measure is shown to solve a nonlinear stochastic partial differential equation, and certain moments of the limiting measure are shown to satisfy an infinite system of stochastic differential equations. The solution to this system leads to the distribution of the limiting portfolio loss, which we propose as an approximation to the loss distribution for a large portfolio. Numerical tests illustrate the accuracy of the approximation, and highlight its computational advantages over a direct Monte Carlo simulation of the original stochastic system.

Irreversible Langevin samplers and variance reduction: a large deviations approach

In order to sample from a given target distribution (often of Gibbs type), the Monte Carlo Markov chain method consists of constructing an ergodic Markov process whose invariant measure is the target distribution. By sampling the Markov process one can then compute, approximately, expectations of observables with respect to the target distribution. Often the Markov processes used in practice are time-reversible (i.e. they satisfy detailed balance), but our main goal here is to assess and quantify how the addition of a non-reversible part to the process can be used to improve the sampling properties. We focus on the diffusion setting (overdamped Langevin equations) where the drift consists of a gradient vector field as well as another drift which breaks the reversibility of the process but is chosen to preserve the Gibbs measure. In this paper we use the large deviation rate function for the empirical measure as a tool to analyze the speed of convergence to the invariant measure. We show that the addition of an irreversible drift leads to a larger rate function and it strictly improves the speed of convergence of ergodic average for (generic smooth) observables. We also deduce from this result that the asymptotic variance decreases under the addition of the irreversible drift and we give an explicit characterization of the observables whose variance is not reduced reduced, in terms of a nonlinear Poisson equation. Our theoretical results are illustrated and supplemented by numerical simulations.

Importance Sampling for Multiscale Diffusions

We construct importance sampling schemes for stochastic differential equations with small noise and fast oscillating coefficients. Standard Monte Carlo methods perform poorly for these problems in ...

Escaping from an attractor: Importance sampling and rest points I

We discuss importance sampling schemes for the estimation of finite time exit probabilities of small noise diffusions that involve escape from an equilibrium. A factor that complicates the analysis is that rest points are included in the domain of interest. We build importance sampling schemes with provably good performance both pre-asymptotically, that is, for fixed size of the noise, and asymptotically, that is, as the size of the noise goes to zero, and that do not degrade as the time horizon gets large. Simulation studies demonstrate the theoretical results.

Large Deviations and Importance Sampling for Systems of Slow-Fast Motion

In this paper we develop the large deviations principle and a rigorous mathematical framework for asymptotically efficient importance sampling schemes for general, fully dependent systems of stochastic differential equations of slow and fast motion with small noise in the slow component. We assume periodicity with respect to the fast component. Depending on the interaction of the fast scale with the smallness of the noise, we get different behavior. We examine how one range of interaction differs from the other one both for the large deviations and for the importance sampling. We use the large deviations results to identify asymptotically optimal importance sampling schemes in each case. Standard Monte Carlo schemes perform poorly in the small noise limit. In the presence of multiscale aspects one faces additional difficulties and straightforward adaptation of importance sampling schemes for standard small noise diffusions will not produce efficient schemes. It turns out that one has to consider the so called cell problem from the homogenization theory for Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations in order to guarantee asymptotic optimality. We use stochastic control arguments.

Rare event simulation for rough energy landscapes

A rough energy landscape can be modeled by a potential function superimposed by another fast oscillating function. Modeling motion in such a rough energy landscape by a small noise stochastic differential equation with fast oscillating coefficients, we construct asymptotically optimal importance sampling schemes for the study of rare events. Standard Monte Carlo methods perform poorly for these kind of problems in the small noise limit, even without the added difficulties of the fast oscillating function. We study the situation in which the fast oscillating parameter goes to zero faster than the intensity of the noise. We identify an asymptotically optimal estimator in the sense of variance minimization using the subsolution approach. Examples and simulation results are provided.

Large deviations for multiscale diffusion via weak convergence methods

We study the large deviations principle for locally periodic SDEs with small noise and fast oscillating coefficients. There are three regimes depending on how fast the intensity of the noise goes to zero relative to homogenization parameter. We use weak convergence methods which provide convenient representations for the action functional for all regimes. Along the way, we study weak limits of controlled SDEs with fast oscillating coefficients. We derive, in some cases, a control that nearly achieves the large deviations lower bound at prelimit level. This control is useful for designing efficient importance sampling schemes for multiscale small noise diffusion.

Default Clustering in Large Pools: Large Deviations

We study large deviations and rare default clustering events in a dynamic large heterogeneous portfolio of interconnected components. Defaults come as Poisson events and the default intensities of the different components in the system interact through the empirical default rate and via systematic effects that are common to all components. We establish the large deviations principle for the empirical default rate for such an interacting particle system. The rate function is derived in an explicit form that is amenable to numerical computations and derivation of the most likely path to failure for the system itself. Numerical studies illustrate the theoretical findings. An understanding of the role of the preferred paths to large default rates and the most likely ways in which contagion and systematic risk combine to lead to large default rates would give useful insights into how to optimally safeguard against such events.

Improving the Convergence of Reversible Samplers

In Monte-Carlo methods the Markov processes used to sample a given target distribution usually satisfy detailed balance, i.e. they are time-reversible. However, relatively recent results have demonstrated that appropriate reversible and irreversible perturbations can accelerate convergence to equilibrium. In this paper we present some general design principles which apply to general Markov processes. Working with the generator of Markov processes, we prove that for some of the most commonly used performance criteria, i.e., spectral gap, asymptotic variance and large deviation functionals, sampling is improved for appropriate reversible and irreversible perturbations of some initially given reversible sampler. Moreover we provide specific constructions for such reversible and irreversible perturbations for various commonly used Markov processes, such as Markov chains and diffusions. In the case of diffusions, we make the discussion more specific using the large deviations rate function as a measure of performance.

Recovery rates in investment-grade pools of credit assets: A large deviations analysis

We consider the effect of recovery rates on a pool of credit assets. We allow the recovery rate to depend on the defaults in a general way. Using the theory of large deviations, we study the structure of losses in a pool consisting of a continuum of types. We derive the corresponding rate function and show that it has a natural interpretation as the favored way to rearrange recoveries and losses among the different types. Numerical examples are also provided.