Koshichiro Mitsukuni

Business scenario design support by qualitative-quantitative hybrid simulation

We propose a simulation method on qualitative and quantitative hybrid model. In order to evaluate factors of a model with qualitative causal relations, we introduce a statistical approach based on propagation and combination of effects of factors by Monte Carlo simulation. In propagating an effect, we divide a range of a quantitative factor by landmarks and decide an effect to a destination node based on the divided ranges. In combining effects, we decide an effect of each causal relation using effects ratio and sum all effects. Through applied results to practical models, it is confirmed that there are mostly same between results derived from quantitative relations and results derived from the proposed method at 0.05 alpha-level.

Evaluation of optimal ordering method for coupling point production system

A new ordering system aims to prevent running out of stock, to limit replenishment quantities and to keep reasonable stock levels for multiple items. In the lot-size re-order system and the interval re-order system, replenishment intervals or quantities are determined by each system after replenishment items are decided. When both re-order systems run for multiple items, the total replenishment quantity usually exceeds the limited capacity. The problem of limited capacity was solved by production scheduling or supply lead-time delay. We propose an optimal ordering method, to be controlled by the margin stock ratio under limited capacity. The margin stock ratio is defined by the prediction of the out-of-stock situation that is calculated by the available inventory stock and by the demand quantities of the supply lead-time period. After each item is arranged according to the margin stock ratio, replenishment items are determined under the limited capacity. This new method has been successfully applied to a window-frame manufacturing process.

Finding method of business risk factors by using qualitative and quantitative hybrid simulation

This paper addresses a new approach to find business risk factors based on business scenarios derived from qualitative-quantitative hybrid simulation. To investigate business risk factors under uncertain business environment, cause-effect interpretation of business factors along with time is significant for decision-makers. Business factors are represented either qualitatively or quantitatively. Our proposed simulation model involves such aspects with structural model representation and generates possible scenarios by using Monte Carlo simulation. However, possible scenarios as probability distribution of target factors inherently involve risk scenarios and non-risk scenarios from decision-makers point of views. Identifying risk factors still resorts to decision-makers without computational analysis support on derived outputs. Therefore we propose a finding method of business risk factors on target models.

New supply chain-concept based on coupling point inventory planning

We propose a new supply chain concept based on coupling point inventory planning method. This method is used for repetitive products at the coupling point (CP), and is combined with the margin stock ratio. This method plans the formulaic necessary inventory under the demand fluctuation, and calculates the re-order quantity. The formulaic necessary inventory is planned by the lead-time of the supply chain process, planning cycle, average demand quantity and its standard deviation. The re-order quantity is calculated by the difference of the formulaic necessary inventory and the measured actual stock. As a result, the total inventory of supply chain process becomes flat by formulaic necessary inventory, and the capacity/load of the upstream company becomes flat by the margin stock ratio, and the out-of-stock situation of the downstream company decreases by the necessary inventory including safety stock.

An efficient method of setting BPR themes suitable for ERP package selection

To select an ERP package and to customize it accurately, it is necessary for a company to set its business process reengineering (BPR) aims. Generally, there are two types of difficulty in setting BPR aims: 1) the company is short of skilled work force; and 2) the company does not allow the project enough time. This paper presents a method that enables one to set BPR aims easily using business sheets. This method consists of the following steps: 1) recognize the transformation of the management environment (the External Business Sheet); 2) recognize the current mechanism of business operations inside the company (Internal Business Sheet); 3) confirm mismatches between the environmental transformation and current business operations; and 4) set necessary action aims (BPR aims) to resolve the mismatches. Amongst these necessary actions, the project will pick up some aims that can be solved by an ERP package. These aims will be the basis of the business requirements in selecting an ERP package. This method reduces the period of discussion by 70%.

New supply chain planning method based on coupling point inventory planning

We propose a new supply chain planning method based on coupling point inventory planning. This method is used for repetitive products at coupling point (CP). This method calculates the re-order quantity on the basis of the theoretical necessary inventory and calculates the out-of-stock warning on the basis of the future demand forecast. The theoretical necessary inventory is planned by the lead-time of the supply chain process, planning cycle, average demand quantity and its standard deviation. The re-order quantity is calculated by the difference of the theoretical necessary inventory and the measured actual stock. The out-of-stock warning is planned by the on-hand inventory and the accuracy estimation demand. As a result, the total inventory level of supply chain process becomes flat by theoretical necessary inventory, and the out-of-stock situation of the downstream company is avoided by the out-of-stock warning.

Evaluation of optimal ordering method in combination of forecast and order based production

We should consider a process capacity when the re-order system replenishes multi-items under the combination of forecast and order-based production. We propose the new usage of optimal ordering method (OOM). OOM has an effect of decreasing the out-of-stock situation under the limited process capacity. OOM is used at the stock position of the coupling points (CP), and the limited capacity is changed by the order-based production quantity. As a result, the delivery delay of the order-based production does not occur, and the out-of-stock situation of the forecast-based production is not increasing. This new usage of OOM has been successfully applied to an electronics device manufacturing process.

Total SCM innovation for business globalization based on coupling point inventory planning

We propose a new supply chain management (SCM) concept based on coupling point inventory planning. This concept has been both achieve quick response to order, the inventory and the shortage-ratio levels controlling, and the capacity constraints replenishment. The new SCM concept is organized to combine three solutions. The first solution is coupling point establishment for quick response to order when the demand lead time is shorter than the supply lead time. The second solution is the re-order calculation for the inventory level control. The third solution is the margin stock ratio for the capacity constraints replenishment when the supply capacity and the demand quantity are difference. The introduced method was successfully applied on some cases of the global SCM