Kristen L. Rasmussen

The variable nature of convection in the tropics and subtropics: A legacy of 16 years of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite

Abstract For over 16 years, the Precipitation Radar of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite detected the three‐dimensional structure of significantly precipitating clouds in the tropics and subtropics. This paper reviews and synthesizes studies using the TRMM radar data to present a global picture of the variation of convection throughout low latitudes. The multiyear data set shows convection varying not only in amount but also in its very nature across the oceans, continents, islands, and mountain ranges of the tropics and subtropics. Shallow isolated raining clouds are overwhelmingly an oceanic phenomenon. Extremely deep and intense convective elements occur almost exclusively over land. Upscale growth of convection into mesoscale systems takes a variety of forms. Oceanic cloud systems generally have less intense embedded convection but can form very wide stratiform regions. Continental mesoscale systems often have more intense embedded convection. Some of the most intense convective cells and mesoscale systems occur near the great mountain ranges of low latitudes. The Maritime Continent and Amazonia exhibit convective clouds with maritime characteristics although they are partially or wholly land. Convective systems containing broad stratiform areas manifest most strongly over oceans. The stratiform precipitation occurs in various forms. Often it occurs as quasi‐uniform precipitation with strong melting layers connected with intense convection. In monsoons and the Intertropical Convergence Zone, it takes the form of closely packed weak convective elements. Where fronts extend into the subtropics, broad stratiform regions are larger and have lower and sloping melting layers related to the baroclinic origin of the precipitation.

Orogenic Convection in Subtropical South America as Seen by the TRMM Satellite

AbstractExtreme orogenic convective storms in southeastern South America are divided into three categories: storms with deep convective cores, storms with wide convective cores, and storms containing broad stratiform regions. Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite’s Precipitation Radar show that storms with wide convective cores are the most frequent, tending to originate near the Sierra de Cordoba range. Downslope flow at upper levels caps a nocturnally enhanced low-level jet, thus preventing convection from breaking out until the jet hits a steep slope of terrain, such as the Sierra de Cordoba Mountains or Andean foothills, so that the moist low-level air is lifted enough to release the instability and overcome the cap. This capping and triggering is similar to the way intense convection is released near the northwestern Himalayas. However, the intense storms with wide convective cores over southeastern South America are unlike their Himalayan counterparts in that they exhibit leadi...

A Flash-Flooding Storm at the Steep Edge of High Terrain: Disaster in the Himalayas

Flash floods on the edge of high terrain, such as the Himalayas or Rocky Mountains, are especially dangerous and hard to predict. The Leh flood of 2010 at the edge of the Himalayan Plateau in India is an example of the tragic consequences of such storms. The flood occurred over a high mountain river valley when, on three successive days, diurnally generated convective cells over the Tibetan Plateau gathered into mesoscale convective systems and moved off the edge of the Plateau over Leh. An easterly midlevel jet associated with a midlevel monsoon vortex over northern India and a high over Asia helped the convection organize into propagating mesoscale systems that moved over the edge of the Plateau. On the third day the mesoscale system moving off the plateau was greatly invigorated when it suddenly drew on moisture flowing upslope over the terrain. It gained maximum strength from this intake of moisture near Leh, and the heavy rains washed over the surrounding mountains and down and over the town.

Upstream Orographic Enhancement of a Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband Approaching the Andes

AbstractUpstream orographic enhancement of the rainfall from an extratropical cyclone approaching the Andes from the Pacific is investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar. The main precipitation from the cyclone over central and coastal Chile fell when a narrow cold-frontal rainband (NCFR) interacted with a midlevel layer cloud deck formed from the orographically induced ascent of the prefrontal “atmospheric river” upstream of the Andes. Model output indicates that low-level convergence enhanced the NCFR where it met low-level blocked flow near the mountains. The NCFR had stronger updrafts with decreasing distance from the mountains, and the NCFR produced larger rain accumulations over the land region upstream of the Andes than over the open ocean. A sensitivity simulation with a 50% reduction in the Andes topography, for comparison to various west coast mountain ranges of North America, demonstrates that the e...

Simulation of a Flash Flooding Storm at the Steep Edge of the Himalayas

AbstractA flash flood and landslide in the Leh region of the Indus Valley in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir on 5–6 August 2010 resulted in hundreds of deaths and great property damage. Observations have led to the hypothesis that the storm, which formed over the Tibetan Plateau, was steered over the steep edge of the plateau by 500-hPa winds and then energized by the ingestion of lower-level moist air, which was approaching from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and rose up the Himalayan barrier. A coupled land surface and atmospheric model simulation validates this hypothesized storm scenario, with the model storm taking the form of a traveling mesoscale squall line with a leading convective line, trailing stratiform region, and midlevel inflow jet. In this region, the development of a mesoscale storm over high terrain is highly unusual, especially one in the form of a propagating squall line system. This unusual storm occurrence and behavior could serve as a warning sign in flash flood prediction...

Contribution of Extreme Convective Storms to Rainfall in South America

The contribution of extreme convectivestorms to rainfall in South Americais investigated using 15 years of high-resolution data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR). Precipitation from three specific types of storms with extreme horizontal and vertical dimensions have been calculated and compared to the climatological rain. The tropical and subtropical regions of South America differ markedly in the influence of storms with extreme dimensions. The tropical regions, especially the Amazon basin, have aspects similar to oceanic convection. Convection in the subtropical regions, centered on La Plata basin, exhibits patterns consistent with storm life cycles initiating in the foothills of the Andes and growing into larger mesoscale convective systems that propagate to the east. In La Plata basin, convective storms with a large horizontal dimension contribute ;44% of the rain and the accumulated influence of all three types of storms with extreme characteristics produce ;95% of the total precipitation in the austral summer.

Severe convection and lightning in subtropical South America

Satellite radar and radiometer data show that subtropical South America has the worlds deepest convective storms, robust mesoscale convective systems, and very frequent large hail. We determine severe weather characteristics for the most intense precipitation features seen by satellite in this region. In summer, hail and lightning concentrate over the foothills of western Argentina. Lightning has a nocturnal maximum associated with storms having deep and mesoscale convective echoes. In spring, lightning is maximum to the east in association with storms having mesoscale structure. A tornado alley is over the Pampas, in central Argentina, distant from the maximum hail occurrence, in association with extreme storms. In summer, flash floods occur over the Andes foothills associated with storms having deep convective cores. In spring, slow-rise floods occur over the plains with storms of mesoscale dimension. This characterization of high-impact weather in South America provides crucial information for socioeconomic implications and public safety.

Convective initiation near the Andes in subtropical South America

AbstractSatellite radar and radiometer data indicate that subtropical South America has some of the deepest and most extreme convective storms on Earth. This study uses the full 15-yr TRMM Precipitation Radar dataset in conjunction with high-resolution simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model to better understand the physical factors that control the climatology of high-impact weather in subtropical South America. The occurrence of intense storms with an extreme horizontal dimension is generally associated with lee cyclogenesis and a strengthening South American low-level jet (SALLJ) in the La Plata basin. The orography of the Andes is critical, and model sensitivity calculations removing and/or reducing various topographic features indicate the orographic control on the initiation of convection and its upscale growth into mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Reduced Andes experiments show more widespread convective initiation, weaker average storm intensity, and more rapid propagation ...

Multiscale Aspects of the Storm Producing the June 2013 Flooding in Uttarakhand, India

AbstractConditions producing disastrous flooding in Uttarakhand, India, in June 2013 differed from conditions that produced other notorious floods in the Himalayan region in recent years. During the week preceding the Uttarakhand flood, deep convection moistened the mountainsides, making them vulnerable to flooding. However, the precipitation producing the flood was not associated with a deep convective event. Rather, an eastward-propagating upper-level trough in the westerlies extended abnormally far southward, with the jet reaching the Himalayas. The south end of the trough merged with a monsoon low moving westward across India. The merged system produced persistent moist low-level flow oriented normal to the Himalayas that advected large amounts of water vapor into the Uttarakhand region. The flow was moist neutral when it passed over the Himalayan barrier, and orographic lifting produced heavy continuous rain over the region for 2–3 days. The precipitation was largely stratiform in nature although emb...

Evolution of Mesoscale Convective System Organizational Structure and Convective Line Propagation

AbstractThis study examines organizational changes and periods of rapid forward propagation in an MCS on 6 July 2015 in South Dakota. The MCS case was the focus of a Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) IOP. Data from the Sioux Falls WSR-88D and a high-resolution WRF simulation are analyzed to examine two periods of rapid forward propagation (or surges) and organizational changes. During the first surge (surge A), the northern portion of the convective line propagates eastward faster than the southern portion, and the northern portion of the leading line transitions from a single convective core to a multicellular structure as it merges with convection initiation. Radar reflectivity factor Z and graupel concentrations decrease above the melting layer, while at lower altitudes Z increases. The MCS cold pool also intensifies and deepens beneath an expanded region of high rainwater content and subsaturated air. Throughout surge A, a mesoscale circulation with strong rear-to-front near-surface flow and...