Kristin B. Byrd

Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: Wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply

ContextIn addition to biodiversity conservation, California rangelands generate multiple ecosystem services including livestock production, drinking and irrigation water, and carbon sequestration. California rangeland ecosystems have experienced substantial conversion to residential land use and more intensive agriculture.ObjectivesTo understand the potential impacts to rangeland ecosystem services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) climate/land use change scenarios for the Central Valley of California and surrounding foothills consistent with three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario narratives.MethodsWe quantified baseline and projected change in wildlife habitat, soil organic carbon (SOC), and water supply (recharge and runoff). For six case study watersheds we quantified the interactions of future development and changing climate on recharge, runoff and streamflow, and precipitation thresholds where dominant watershed hydrological processes shift through analysis of covariance.ResultsThe scenarios show that across the region, habitat loss is expected to occur predominantly in grasslands, primarily due to future development (up to a 37 % decline by 2100), however habitat loss in priority conservation errors will likely be due to cropland and hay/pasture expansion (up to 40 % by 2100). Grasslands in the region contain approximately 100 teragrams SOC in the top 20 cm, and up to 39 % of this SOC is subject to conversion by 2100. In dryer periods recharge processes typically dominate runoff. Future development lowers the precipitation value at which recharge processes dominate runoff, and combined with periods of drought, reduces the opportunity for recharge, especially on deep soils.ConclusionResults support the need for climate-smart land use planning that takes recharge areas into account, which will provide opportunities for water storage in dry years. Given projections for agriculture, more modeling is needed on feedbacks between agricultural expansion on rangelands and water supply.

SALT MARSH VEGETATION RESPONSE TO EDAPHIC AND TOPOGRAPHIC CHANGES FROM UPLAND SEDIMENTATION IN A PACIFIC ESTUARY

This study investigated how changes in salt marsh soil properties and topography on sediment fans related to shifts in salt marsh plant community composition in the Elkhorn Slough Watershed, California, USA. Several sediment fans have formed in this watershed as soil eroding from farms moved downslope, filling marshes, mudflats, and channels. Sandy sediment deposition increased marsh plain elevation and altered edaphic properties by increasing bulk density and decreasing soil moisture, salinity, and soil nitrogen compared to reference sites. These changes created a strong wetlandupland gradient and influenced the development of well-defined vegetation zones from wetland to upland: pickleweed (Salicornia virginica), cattail (Typha spp.) and bulrush (Scirpus spp.), and arroyo willow (Salix lasiolepis). Based on statistical analysis, arroyo willow grew in a distinct edaphic environment, and its expansion into the salt marsh was restricted by elevation in tidal areas greater than 1.80 m NAVD 88, spring soil moisture levels lower than 20%, and year-round salinity levels lower than 2.67 dS/m. Cattail and bulrush were present in transitional environmental conditions with fluctuating salinity and at an elevation similar to that of the pickleweed community. The hydrogeologic setting played a part in this change, as the contribution of upland sandy soils likely facilitated the emergence of new edaphic properties including lower salinity, lower soil moisture, and reduced soil nutrients. The findings in this study underline the importance of on-going erosion-control efforts to estuarine conservation in Central California.

Decadal Changes in a Pacific Estuary: A Multi-Source Remote Sensing Approach for Historical Ecology

In Pacific Coast salt marshes, only color and color IR aerial photography provide the spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution required to conduct long-term historic time series analysis of wetland change at the plant community level. We used historic aerial photographs with manual and automated image classification techniques to discern decadal-scale changes to salt marshes in Elkhorn Slough, California caused by off-farm sedimentation from 1971 to 2001. Change detection identified a process of plant succession that led to arroyo willow encroachment into pickleweed marsh. Changes observed were considered within the context of additional land use changes over a greater regional and time scale.

Interacting Coastal Based Ecosystem Services: Recreation and Water Quality in Puget Sound, WA

Coastal recreation and water quality are major contributors to human well-being in coastal regions. They can also interact, creating opportunities for ecosystem based management, ecological restoration, and water quality improvement that can positively affect people and the environment. Yet the effect of environmental quality on human behavior is often poorly quantified, but commonly assumed in coastal ecosystem service studies. To clarify this effect we investigate a water quality dataset for evidence that environmental condition partially explains variation in recreational visitation, our indicator of human behavior. In Puget Sound, WA, we investigate variation in visitation in both visitation rate and fixed effects (FE) models. The visitation rate model relates the differences in annual recreational visitation among parks to environmental conditions, park characteristics, travel cost, and recreational demand. In our FE model we control for all time-invariant unobserved variables and compare monthly variation at the park level to determine how water quality affects visitation during the summer season. The results of our first model illustrate how visitation relates to various amenities and costs. In the FE analysis, monthly visitation was negatively related to water quality while controlling for monthly visitation trends. This indicates people are responding to changes in water quality, and an improvement would yield an increase in the value of recreation. Together, these results could help in prioritizing water quality improvements, could assist the creation of new parks or the modification of existing recreational infrastructure, and provide quantitative estimates for the expected benefits from potential changes in recreational visitation and water quality improvements. Our results also provide an example of how recreational visitation can be quantified and used in ecosystem service assessments.

Accounting for non-photosynthetic vegetation in remote-sensing-based estimates of carbon flux in wetlands

Monitoring productivity in coastal wetlands is important due to their high carbon sequestration rates and potential role in climate change mitigation. We tested agricultural- and forest-based methods for estimating the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (f APAR), a key parameter for modelling gross primary productivity (GPP), in a restored, managed wetland with a dense litter layer of non-photosynthetic vegetation, and we compared the difference in canopy light transmission between a tidally influenced wetland and the managed wetland. The presence of litter reduced correlations between spectral vegetation indices and f APAR. In the managed wetland, a two-band vegetation index incorporating simulated World View-2 or Hyperion green and near-infrared bands, collected with a field spectroradiometer, significantly correlated with f APAR only when measured above the litter layer, not at the ground where measurements typically occur. Measures of GPP in these systems are difficult to capture via remote sensing, and require an investment of sampling effort, practical methods for measuring green leaf area and accounting for background effects of litter and water.

A Hybrid Model for Mapping Relative Differences in Belowground Biomass and Root: Shoot Ratios Using Spectral Reflectance, Foliar N and Plant Biophysical Data within Coastal Marsh

Broad-scale estimates of belowground biomass are needed to understand wetland resiliency and C and N cycling, but these estimates are difficult to obtain because root:shoot ratios vary considerably both within and between species. We used remotely-sensed estimates of two aboveground plant characteristics, aboveground biomass and % foliar N to explore biomass allocation in low diversity freshwater impounded peatlands (Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, CA, USA). We developed a hybrid modeling approach to relate remotely-sensed estimates of % foliar N (a surrogate for environmental N and plant available nutrients) and aboveground biomass to field-measured belowground biomass for species specific and mixed species models. We estimated up to 90% of variation in foliar N concentration using partial least squares (PLS) regression of full-spectrum field spectrometer reflectance data. Landsat 7 reflectance data explained up to 70% of % foliar N and 67% of aboveground biomass. Spectrally estimated foliar N or aboveground biomass had negative relationships with belowground biomass and root:shoot ratio in both Schoenoplectus acutus and Typha, consistent with a balanced growth model, which suggests plants only allocate growth belowground when additional nutrients are necessary to support shoot development. Hybrid models explained up to 76% of variation in belowground biomass and 86% of variation in root:shoot ratio. Our modeling approach provides a method for developing maps of spatial variation in wetland belowground biomass.

Remotely-Sensed Indicators of N-Related Biomass Allocation in Schoenoplectus acutus

Coastal marshes depend on belowground biomass of roots and rhizomes to contribute to peat and soil organic carbon, accrete soil and alleviate flooding as sea level rises. For nutrient-limited plants, eutrophication has either reduced or stimulated belowground biomass depending on plant biomass allocation response to fertilization. Within a freshwater wetland impoundment receiving minimal sediments, we used experimental plots to explore growth models for a common freshwater macrophyte, Schoenoplectus acutus. We used N-addition and control plots (4 each) to test whether remotely sensed vegetation indices could predict leaf N concentration, root:shoot ratios and belowground biomass of S. acutus. Following 5 months of summer growth, we harvested whole plants, measured leaf N and total plant biomass of all above and belowground vegetation. Prior to harvest, we simulated measurement of plant spectral reflectance over 164 hyperspectral Hyperion satellite bands (350–2500 nm) with a portable spectroradiometer. N-addition did not alter whole plant, but reduced belowground biomass 36% and increased aboveground biomass 71%. We correlated leaf N concentration with known N-related spectral regions using all possible normalized difference (ND), simple band ratio (SR) and first order derivative ND (FDN) and SR (FDS) vegetation indices. FDN1235, 549 was most strongly correlated with leaf N concentration and also was related to belowground biomass, the first demonstration of spectral indices and belowground biomass relationships. While S. acutus exhibited balanced growth (reduced root:shoot ratio with respect to nutrient addition), our methods also might relate N-enrichment to biomass point estimates for plants with isometric root growth. For isometric growth, foliar N indices will scale equivalently with above and belowground biomass. Leaf N vegetation indices should aid in scaling-up field estimates of biomass and assist regional monitoring.

Coping With Historic Drought in California Rangelands: Developing a More Effective Institutional Response

On the Ground Drought response is widely varied depending on both the characteristics of the drought and the ability of individual ranchers to respond. Assistance from institutions during drought has not typically considered preemptive, during, and post-drought response as a strategic approach, which recognizes biophysical, sociological, and economic complexities of drought. A USDA Southwest Climate Hub-sponsored workshop brought together a range of representatives from public and private institutions with drought response responsibilities to examine how those institutions could better support drought decision-making. Institutions can greatly improve their support for individual land managers by doing more systematic collecting and organizing of drought-related information as a basis for programs, and by collaborating to enhance both institutional and individual learning.