Kristin F. Butcher

Cross-city evidence on the relationship between immigration and crime

Public concerns about the costs of immigration and crime are high, and sometimes overlapping. This article investigates the relationship between immigration into a metropolitan area and that areas crime rate during the 1980s. Using data from the Uniform Crime Reports and the Current Population Surveys, we find, in the cross section, that cities with high crime rates tend to have large numbers of immigrants. However, controlling for the demographic characteristics of the cities, recent immigrants appear to have no effect on crime rates. In explaining changes in a citys crime rate over time, the flow of immigrants again has no effect, whether or not we control for other city-level characteristics. In a secondary analysis of individual data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY), we find that youth born abroad are statistically significantly less likely than native-born youth to be criminally active.

Recent Immigrants: Unexpected Implications for Crime and Incarceration

This analysis of data from the 5% 1980 and 1990 Public Use Microdata Samples shows that among 18–40-year-old men in the United States, immigrants were less likely than the native-born to be institutionalized (that is, in correctional facilities, mental hospitals, or other institutions), and much less likely to be institutionalized than native-born men with similar demographic characteristics. Furthermore, earlier immigrants were more likely to be institutionalized than were more recent immigrants. Although all immigrant cohorts appear to have assimilated toward the higher institutionalization rates of the native-born as their time in the country increased, the institutionalization rates of recent immigrants did not increase as quickly as would be predicted from the experience of earlier immigrant cohorts. These results contradict what one would predict from the literature on immigrant earnings, which suggests that more recent immigrants have worse permanent labor market characteristics than earlier immigrants.

The Immigrant and Native-Born Wage Distributions: Evidence from United States Censuses

Recent studies document a large widening of the immigrant/native-born mean wage gap since about 1970, a trend that some observers ascribe to post-1965 changes in U.S. immigration policy. These studies are limited, however, by their exclusive focus on men, which ignores important gender differences in the wage gap, and by the inadequacy of the mean wage for characterizing the gap when, as in recent decades, the wage distribution dramatically changes. This study of recent immigrants examines changes across the entire wage distribution, for both genders. The authors find evidence, based partly on gender differences, that minimum wages strongly influenced the gap. A counterfactual analysis also indicates that if recent immigrants in 1970 had faced the 1990 wage structure, their wage distribution would have closely resembled that of recent immigrants in 1990. These and other results suggest that the increasing wage gap is linked to changes in the wage structure.

Black Immigrants in the United States: A Comparison with Native Blacks and other Immigrants

This analysis of 1980 Census data shows that in 1979 immigrant black men had higher employment rates than native-born black men, but the wages of employed members of the two groups were nearly the same. Further, the wage differences that did exist between these groups appear to have stemmed from the selection process associated with migration, not (as has been argued by-some) from differences between the cultural traditions of immigrant and native-born blacks: on a variety of employment and wage measures, black Jamaican and other Caribbean immigrant men in 1979 were remarkably similar to native-born black “movers” (men who had moved out of their state of birth by the Census date).

Wage Effects of Unions and Industrial Councils in South Africa

Using data for 1995, the authors estimate union wage premia of about 20% for African workers and 10% for white workers in South Africa—roughly similar to estimates reported for other countries, including the United States. African nonunion workers who were covered by industrial council agreements received a premium of 6–10%; the premium was positive but not statistically significant for whites. Although the union/nonunion wage gap was smaller inside the industrial council system than outside it for Africans, the total union premium for union members covered by an industrial council agreement was similar to the union premium outside the industrial council system. Among Africans, the industrial council and union wage gaps were largest among low-wage workers. These findings, the authors conclude, do not support the common claim that a high union wage premium and the industrial council system are the primary causes of high unemployment in the South African labor market.

Is Being in School Better? the Impact of School on Children's BMI When Starting Age is Endogenous

In this paper, we investigate the impact of attending school on body weight and obesity using a regression-discontinuity design. As is the case with academic outcomes, school exposure is related to unobserved determinants of weight outcomes because some families choose to have their child start school late (or early). If one does not account for this endogeneity, it appears that an additional year of school exposure results in a greater BMI and a higher probability of being overweight or obese. When we compare the weight outcomes of similar age children with one versus two years of school exposure due to regulations on school starting age, the significant positive effects disappear, and most point estimates become negative, but insignificant. However, additional school exposure appears to improve weight outcomes of children for whom the transition to elementary school represents a more dramatic change in environment (those who spent less time in childcare prior to kindergarten).

Adequate (or Adipose?) Yearly Progress: Assessing the Effect of "No Child Left Behind" on Children's Obesity

This paper investigates how accountability pressures under No Child Left Behind (NCLB) may have affected students’ rate of overweight. Schools facing pressure to improve academic outcomes may reallocate their efforts in ways that have unintended consequences for childrens health. To examine the impact of school accountability, we create a unique panel dataset containing school-level data on test scores and students’ weight outcomes from schools in Arkansas. We code schools as facing accountability pressures if they are on the margin of making Adequate Yearly Progress, measured by whether the schools minimum-scoring subgroup had a passing rate within 5 percentage points of the threshold. We find evidence of small effects of accountability pressures on the percent of students at a school who are overweight. This finding is little changed if we controlled for the schools lagged rate of overweight, or use alternative ways to identify schools facing NCLB pressure.

The Impact of a Classroom-Based Guidance Program on Student Performance in Community College Math Classes

Passing through remedial and required math classes poses a significant barrier to success for many community college students. This study uses random assignment to investigate the impact of a “light-touch” intervention, where an individual visited math classes a few times during the semester, for a few minutes each time, to inform students about available services. Entire class sections, rather than individuals, were randomly assigned to program and control groups, reducing the administrative burden for the college of a randomized-controlled experiment. This study finds that the intervention increased students’ use of tutoring services and reduced math class withdrawal rates, but had no effect on overall pass rates. The program did, however, increase the math class pass rates for part-time students, who represented almost 50% of the participants.

Implications of Changes in Men's and Women's Labor Force Participation for Real Compensation Growth and Inflation

Abstract During the 1990s economic expansion, the United States enjoyed both low inflation and low unemployment. Juhn, Murphy, and Topel (2002) point out that low unemployment for men in the 1990s was accompanied by historically high non-employment suggesting that the 1990s economy was not as strong as unemployment might indicate. We include women in the analysis and examine whether Phillips curve relationships between real compensation growth, changes in inflation, and labor market slackness are the same for men and women and whether measures of “non-employment” better capture underlying labor resource utilization. From 1965 to 2002 the increase in women’s labor force participation more than offsets the decline for men, and low unemployment rates in the 1990s were accompanied by historically low overall non-employment rates. We find that women’s measures of labor market slackness do as well as men’s in explaining real compensation growth and changes in inflation after 1983.

Using Credit Reporting Agency Data to Assess the Link between the Community Reinvestment Act and Consumer Credit Outcomes

We use a regression discontinuity design to investigate the effect of the Community Reinvestment Act on consumer credit outcomes using data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Consumer Credit Panel database (Equifax data) for the years 2004 to 2012. A bank’s activities in census tracts with median family incomes less than 80 percent of the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) median family income count toward a lending institution’s compliance with CRA rules. Assuming census tracts with median incomes at 79.9 percent of the MSA median are the same as census tracts at 80 percent — except for CRA eligibility — discontinuous changes in consumer credit outcomes at that threshold are evidence of the CRA’s impact. We find no statistically significant effects of the CRA on mortgages or foreclosures, either before or after the financial crisis. However, we do find evidence that CRA expanded broad measures of credit market activity: at the CRA threshold, there is a 9 percent increase in the total number of loans, an increase in the number of people covered by the Equifax data, and an increase in the fraction of individuals with a valid risk score. Despite expanded credit activity, which may increase consumers’ risk for adverse outcomes, there is no significant increase in delinquencies at the CRA threshold.