Kristine Yaffe

Toward defining the preclinical stages of Alzheimer’s disease: Recommendations from the National Institute on Aging-Alzheimer's Association workgroups on diagnostic guidelines for Alzheimer's disease

The pathophysiological process of Alzheimers disease (AD) is thought to begin many years before the diagnosis of AD dementia. This long “preclinical” phase of AD would provide a critical opportunity for therapeutic intervention; however, we need to further elucidate the link between the pathological cascade of AD and the emergence of clinical symptoms. The National Institute on Aging and the Alzheimers Association convened an international workgroup to review the biomarker, epidemiological, and neuropsychological evidence, and to develop recommendations to determine the factors which best predict the risk of progression from “normal” cognition to mild cognitive impairment and AD dementia. We propose a conceptual framework and operational research criteria, based on the prevailing scientific evidence to date, to test and refine these models with longitudinal clinical research studies. These recommendations are solely intended for research purposes and do not have any clinical implications at this time. It is hoped that these recommendations will provide a common rubric to advance the study of preclinical AD, and ultimately, aid the field in moving toward earlier intervention at a stage of AD when some disease‐modifying therapies may be most efficacious.

The projected effect of risk factor reduction on Alzheimer's disease prevalence

At present, about 33·9 million people worldwide have Alzheimers disease (AD), and prevalence is expected to triple over the next 40 years. The aim of this Review was to summarise the evidence regarding seven potentially modifiable risk factors for AD: diabetes, midlife hypertension, midlife obesity, smoking, depression, cognitive inactivity or low educational attainment, and physical inactivity. Additionally, we projected the effect of risk factor reduction on AD prevalence by calculating population attributable risks (the percent of cases attributable to a given factor) and the number of AD cases that might be prevented by risk factor reductions of 10% and 25% worldwide and in the USA. Together, up to half of AD cases worldwide (17·2 million) and in the USA (2·9 million) are potentially attributable to these factors. A 10-25% reduction in all seven risk factors could potentially prevent as many as 1·1-3·0 million AD cases worldwide and 184,000-492,000 cases in the USA.

Midlife cardiovascular risk factors and risk of dementia in late life

Objective: To evaluate if midlife cardiovascular risk factors are associated with risk of late-life dementia in a large, diverse cohort. Method: The authors conducted a retrospective cohort study of 8,845 participants of a health maintenance organization who underwent health evaluations from 1964 to 1973 when they were between the ages of 40 and 44. Midlife cardiovascular risk factors included total cholesterol, diabetes, hypertension, and smoking. Diagnoses of dementia were ascertained by medical records from January 1994 to April 2003. Results: The authors identified 721 participants (8.2%) with dementia. Smoking, hypertension, high cholesterol, and diabetes at midlife were each associated with a 20 to 40% increase in risk of dementia (fully adjusted Cox proportional hazards model: HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.48 for hypertension, HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.47 for smoking, HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.66 for high cholesterol, and HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.79 for diabetes). A composite cardiovascular risk score was created using all four risk factors and was associated with dementia in a dose-dependent fashion. Compared with participants having no risk factors, the risk for dementia increased from 1.27 for having one risk factor to 2.37 for having all four risk factors (fully adjusted model: HR 2.37, 95% CI 1.10 to 5.10). Conclusion: The presence of multiple cardiovascular risk factors at midlife substantially increases risk of late-life dementia in a dose dependent manner.

Hypoglycemic Episodes and Risk of Dementia in Older Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

CONTEXT Although acute hypoglycemia may be associated with cognitive impairment in children with type 1 diabetes, no studies to date have evaluated whether hypoglycemia is a risk factor for dementia in older patients with type 2 diabetes. OBJECTIVE To determine if hypoglycemic episodes severe enough to require hospitalization are associated with an increased risk of dementia in a population of older patients with type 2 diabetes followed up for 27 years. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS A longitudinal cohort study from 1980-2007 of 16,667 patients with a mean age of 65 years and type 2 diabetes who are members of an integrated health care delivery system in northern California. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Hypoglycemic events from 1980-2002 were collected and reviewed using hospital discharge and emergency department diagnoses. Cohort members with no prior diagnoses of dementia, mild cognitive impairment, or general memory complaints as of January 1, 2003, were followed up for a dementia diagnosis through January 15, 2007. Dementia risk was examined using Cox proportional hazard regression models, adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, body mass index, duration of diabetes, 7-year mean glycated hemoglobin, diabetes treatment, duration of insulin use, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, stroke, transient cerebral ischemia, and end-stage renal disease. RESULTS At least 1 episode of hypoglycemia was diagnosed in 1465 patients (8.8%) and dementia was diagnosed in 1822 patients (11%) during follow-up; 250 patients had both dementia and at least 1 episode of hypoglycemia (16.95%). Compared with patients with no hypoglycemia, patients with single or multiple episodes had a graded increase in risk with fully adjusted hazard ratios (HRs): for 1 episode (HR, 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-1.49); 2 episodes (HR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.37-2.36); and 3 or more episodes (HR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.42-2.64). The attributable risk of dementia between individuals with and without a history of hypoglycemia was 2.39% per year (95% CI, 1.72%-3.01%). Results were not attenuated when medical utilization rates, length of health plan membership, or time since initial diabetes diagnosis were added to the model. When examining emergency department admissions for hypoglycemia for association with risk of dementia (535 episodes), results were similar (compared with patients with 0 episodes) with fully adjusted HRs: for 1 episode (HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.12-1.78) and for 2 or more episodes (HR, 2.36; 95% CI, 1.57-3.55). CONCLUSIONS Among older patients with type 2 diabetes, a history of severe hypoglycemic episodes was associated with a greater risk of dementia. Whether minor hypoglycemic episodes increase risk of dementia is unknown.

Obesity in middle age and future risk of dementia: a 27 year longitudinal population based study

Abstract Objective To evaluate any association between obesity in middle age, measured by body mass index and skinfold thickness, and risk of dementia later in life. Design Analysis of prospective data from a multiethnic population based cohort. Setting Kaiser Permanente Northern California Medical Group, a healthcare delivery organisation. Participants 10 276 men and women who underwent detailed health evaluations from 1964 to 1973 when they were aged 40-45 and who were still members of the health plan in 1994. Main outcome measures Diagnosis of dementia from January 1994 to April 2003. Time to diagnosis was analysed with Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age, sex, race, education, smoking, alcohol use, marital status, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, stroke, and ischaemic heart disease. Results Dementia was diagnosed in 713 (6.9%) participants. Obese people (body mass index ≥ 30) had a 74% increased risk of dementia (hazard ratio 1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.34 to 2.26), while overweight people (body mass index 25.0-29.9) had a 35% greater risk of dementia (1.35, 1.14 to 1.60) compared with those of normal weight (body mass index 18.6-24.9). Compared with those in the lowest fifth, men and women in the highest fifth of the distribution of subscapular or tricep skinfold thickness had a 72% and 59% greater risk of dementia, respectively (1.72, 1.36 to 2.18, and 1.59, 1.24 to 2.04). Conclusions Obesity in middle age increases the risk of future dementia independently of comorbid conditions.

Potential for primary prevention of Alzheimer's disease: an analysis of population-based data

BACKGROUND Recent estimates suggesting that over half of Alzheimers disease burden worldwide might be attributed to potentially modifiable risk factors do not take into account risk-factor non-independence. We aimed to provide specific estimates of preventive potential by accounting for the association between risk factors. METHODS Using relative risks from existing meta-analyses, we estimated the population-attributable risk (PAR) of Alzheimers disease worldwide and in the USA, Europe, and the UK for seven potentially modifiable risk factors that have consistent evidence of an association with the disease (diabetes, midlife hypertension, midlife obesity, physical inactivity, depression, smoking, and low educational attainment). The combined PAR associated with the risk factors was calculated using data from the Health Survey for England 2006 to estimate and adjust for the association between risk factors. The potential of risk factor reduction was assessed by examining the combined effect of relative reductions of 10% and 20% per decade for each of the seven risk factors on projections for Alzheimers disease cases to 2050. FINDINGS Worldwide, the highest estimated PAR was for low educational attainment (19·1%, 95% CI 12·3-25·6). The highest estimated PAR was for physical inactivity in the USA (21·0%, 95% CI 5·8-36·6), Europe (20·3%, 5·6-35·6), and the UK (21·8%, 6·1-37·7). Assuming independence, the combined worldwide PAR for the seven risk factors was 49·4% (95% CI 25·7-68·4), which equates to 16·8 million attributable cases (95% CI 8·7-23·2 million) of 33·9 million cases. However, after adjustment for the association between the risk factors, the estimate reduced to 28·2% (95% CI 14·2-41·5), which equates to 9·6 million attributable cases (95% CI 4·8-14·1 million) of 33·9 million cases. Combined PAR estimates were about 30% for the USA, Europe, and the UK. Assuming a causal relation and intervention at the correct age for prevention, relative reductions of 10% per decade in the prevalence of each of the seven risk factors could reduce the prevalence of Alzheimers disease in 2050 by 8·3% worldwide. INTERPRETATION After accounting for non-independence between risk factors, around a third of Alzheimers diseases cases worldwide might be attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors. Alzheimers disease incidence might be reduced through improved access to education and use of effective methods targeted at reducing the prevalence of vascular risk factors (eg, physical inactivity, smoking, midlife hypertension, midlife obesity, and diabetes) and depression. FUNDING National Institute for Health Research Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care for Cambridgeshire and Peterborough.

Functional status of elderly adults before and after initiation of dialysis.

BACKGROUND It is unclear whether functional status before dialysis is maintained after the initiation of this therapy in elderly patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). METHODS Using a national registry of patients undergoing dialysis, which was linked to a national registry of nursing home residents, we identified all 3702 nursing home residents in the United States who were starting treatment with dialysis between June 1998 and October 2000 and for whom at least one measurement of functional status was available before the initiation of dialysis. Functional status was measured by assessing the degree of dependence in seven activities of daily living (on the Minimum Data Set-Activities of Daily Living [MDS-ADL] scale of 0 to 28 points, with higher scores indicating greater functional difficulty). RESULTS The median MDS-ADL score increased from 12 during the 3 months before the initiation of dialysis to 16 during the 3 months after the initiation of dialysis. Three months after the initiation of dialysis, functional status had been maintained in 39% of nursing home residents, but by 12 months after the initiation of dialysis, 58% had died and predialysis functional status had been maintained in only 13%. In a random-effects model, the initiation of dialysis was associated with a sharp decline in functional status, indicated by an increase of 2.8 points in the MDS-ADL score (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.5 to 3.0); this decline was independent of age, sex, race, and functional-status trajectory before the initiation of dialysis. The decline in functional status associated with the initiation of dialysis remained substantial (1.7 points; 95% CI, 1.4 to 2.1), even after adjustment for the presence or absence of an accelerated functional decline during the 3-month period before the initiation of dialysis. CONCLUSIONS Among nursing home residents with ESRD, the initiation of dialysis is associated with a substantial and sustained decline in functional status.

Magnetic resonance imaging of the entorhinal cortex and hippocampus in mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer’s disease

OBJECTIVES To explore volume changes of the entorhinal cortex (ERC) and hippocampus in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimers disease (AD) compared with normal cognition (NC); to determine the powers of the ERC and the hippocampus for discrimination between these groups. METHODS This study included 40 subjects with NC, 36 patients with MCI, and 29 patients with AD. Volumes of the ERC and hippocampus were manually measured based on coronal T1 weighted MR images. Global cerebral changes were assessed using semiautomatic image segmentation. RESULTS Both ERC and hippocampal volumes were reduced in MCI (ERC 13%, hippocampus 11%, p<0.05) and AD (ERC 39%, hippocampus 27%, p<0.01) compared with NC. Furthermore, AD showed greater volume losses in the ERC than in the hippocampus (p<0.01). In addition, AD and MCI also had cortical grey matter loss (p< 0.01) and ventricular enlargement (p<0.01) when compared with NC. There was a significant correlation between ERC and hippocampal volumes in MCI and AD (both p<0.001), but not in NC. Using ERC and hippocampus together improved discrimination between AD and CN but did not improve discrimination between MCI and NC. The ERC was better than the hippocampus for distinguishing MCI from AD. In addition, loss of cortical grey matter significantly contributed to the hippocampus for discriminating MCI and AD from NC. CONCLUSIONS Volume reductions in the ERC and hippocampus may be early signs of AD pathology that can be measured using MRI.

Inflammatory markers and cognition in well-functioning African-American and white elders

Background: Several lines of evidence suggest that inflammatory mechanisms contribute to AD. Objective: To examine whether several markers of inflammation are associated with cognitive decline in African-American and white well-functioning elders. Methods: The authors studied 3,031 African-American and white men and women (mean age 74 years) enrolled in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study. Serum levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP) and plasma levels of tumor necrosis factor-α (TNFα) were measured at baseline; cognition was assessed with the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination (3MS) at baseline and at follow-up. Cognitive decline was defined as a decline of >5 points. Results: In age-adjusted analyses, participants in the highest tertile of IL-6 or CRP performed nearly 2 points lower (worse) on baseline and follow-up 3MS (p < 0.001 for all) and declined by almost 1 point over the >2 years (p = 0.01 for IL-6 and p = 0.04 for CRP) compared with those in the lowest tertile. After multivariate adjustment, 3MS scores among participants in the highest tertile of IL-6 and CRP were similar at baseline but remained significantly lower at follow-up (p ≤ 0.05 for both). Those in the highest inflammatory marker tertile were also more likely to have cognitive decline compared with the lowest tertile for IL-6 (26 vs 20%; age-adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 1.34; 95% CI 1.06 to 1.69) and for CRP (24 vs 19%; OR = 1.41; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.79) but not for TNFα (23 vs 21%; OR = 1.12; 95% CI 0.88 to 1.43). There was no significant interaction between race and inflammatory marker or between nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use and inflammatory marker on cognition. Conclusions: Serum markers of inflammation, especially IL-6 and CRP, are prospectively associated with cognitive decline in well-functioning elders. These findings support the hypothesis that inflammation contributes to cognitive decline in the elderly.

Central obesity and increased risk of dementia more than three decades later

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