Kristinn Hermannsson

‘Policy scepticism’ and the impact of Scottish higher education institutions (HEIs) on their host region: accounting for regional budget constraints under devolution

Hermannsson K., Lisenkova K., McGregor P. G. and Swales J. K. ‘Policy scepticism’ and the impact of Scottish higher education institutions (HEIs) on their host region: accounting for regional budget constraints under devolution, Regional Studies. A ‘policy scepticism’ has emerged that challenges the results of conventional regional higher education institution (HEI) impact analyses. This paper provides a systematic critique of such scepticism. While rejecting its extreme form, the limiting effect of the binding public-sector expenditure constraints under devolution is noted and it is shown how conventional impact analyses can be augmented to accommodate these constraints. While the results suggest that conventional impact studies overestimate the expenditure impacts of HEIs, they also demonstrate that the policy scepticism that treats these expenditure effects as irrelevant neglects some key aspects of HEIs, in particular their export intensity.

The Expenditure Impacts of Individual Higher Education Institutions and Their Students on the Scottish Economy under a Regional Government Budget Constraint: Homogeneity or Heterogeneity?

Comparing each of the higher education institutions (HEIs) as a separate sector in the Scottish input—output table suggests that their expenditure patterns are homogenous and that any apparent heterogeneity in their conventional demand impacts depends primarily on scale. However, a disaggregation of their income by source reveals a disparity in their degree of dependence upon funding from the devolved Scottish Government. Acknowledging the binding budget constraint of the Scottish Government, and deriving balanced-expenditure multipliers, reveals large differences in the net-expenditure impact of HEIs upon the Scottish economy, with the source of variation being the origin of income. Applying a novel treatment of student expenditure impacts through identifying the amount of exogenous spending per student further increases the heterogeneity of the overall expenditure effects. These issues have particular importance for many governments facing increasing pressure to reduce their overall budgets.

Beyond Intermediates: The Role of Consumption and Commuting in the Construction of Local Input-Output Tables

Abstract Estimating intermediate trade using conventional non-survey methods produces biased results. This problem has led to a methodological recommendation that emphasizes the accurate estimation of intermediate trade flows. This paper argues for a qualification of the consensus view: when simulating input–output (IO) tables, analysts need also to consider spillover effects driven by wage and consumption flows. In particular, for metropolitan economies, capturing wage and consumption flows is essential to obtain accurate Type II multipliers. This is demonstrated by constructing an interregional IO table that captures the interdependence between a city and its commuter belt, nested within the wider regional economy.

The regional economic impact of more graduates in the labour market: a 'micro-to-macro' analysis for Scotland

This paper explores the system-wide impact of graduates on the regional economy. Graduates enjoy a significant wage premium, often interpreted as reflecting their greater productivity relative to nongraduates. If this is so there is a clear and direct supply-side impact of higher education institution (HEI) activities on regional economies. We use an HEI-disaggregated computable general equilibrium model of Scotland to estimate the impact of the growing proportion of graduates in the Scottish labour force that is implied by the current participation rate and demographic change, taking the graduate wage premium in Scotland as an indicator of productivity enhancement. While the detailed results vary with alternative assumptions about the extent to which wage premia reflect productivity, they do suggest that the long-term supply-side impacts of HEIs provide a significant boost to regional GDP. Furthermore, the results suggest that the supply-side impacts of HEIs are likely to be more important than the expenditure impacts that are the focus of most HEI impact studies.

How much does a single graduation cohort from further education colleges contribute to an open regional economy

ABSTRACT How much does a single graduation cohort from further education colleges contribute to an open regional economy? Spatial Economic Analysis. This paper combines elements of growth accounting and numerical general equilibrium analysis to produce an alternative micro-to-macro modelling approach. This is used to evaluate the macroeconomic impact on the Scottish economy of the human capital generated by a single graduation cohort from further education colleges. The macroeconomic impact is found to be significant and larger than growth accounting would suggest due to the associated endogenous investment, employment and competitiveness effects. From a policy perspective this identifies the importance of the conventional teaching role of education institutions and the key function played by further education colleges in this process.

The external benefits of higher education

ABSTRACT The external benefits of higher education. Regional Studies. The private-market benefits of education are widely studied at the micro-level, although the magnitude of their macroeconomic impact is disputed. However, there are additional benefits of education that are less well understood. In this paper the macroeconomic effects of external benefits of higher education are estimated using the ‘micro-to-macro’ simulation approach. Two types of externalities are explored: technology spillovers and productivity spillovers in the labour market. These links are illustrated and the results suggest they could be very large. However, this is qualified by the dearth of microeconomic evidence, for which the authors hope to encourage further work.

The expenditure impacts of London's higher education institutions : the role of diverse income sources

This paper analyses the impact of London-based higher education institutions (HEIs) on the English economy. When we treat each of the HEIs as separate sectors in conventional input-output analysis, their expenditure impacts appear rather homogenous, with the apparent heterogeneity of their overall impacts being primarily driven by scale. However, a disaggregation of income by source reveals considerable variation in their dependence upon public funding and ability to draw in income/funding from external sources. Acknowledging the possible alternative uses of the public funding and deriving balanced expenditure multipliers reveals large differences in the net-expenditure impact with the source of variation being the origin of income. The institutional multiplier is driven by the ability to attract external funding, which would typically favour research-intensive institutions. However, the impacts of students’ consumption expenditures are also significant. In terms of ranking of multipliers the overall results are mixed.

Human Capital in Economic Development: From Labour Productivity to Macroeconomic Impact†

Micro-econometric evidence reveals high private returns to education, most prominently in low-income countries. However, it is disputed to what extent this translates into a macro-economic impact. This paper projects the increase in human capital from higher education in Malawi and uses a dynamic applied general equilibrium model to estimate the resulting macroeconomics impact. This is contingent upon endogenous adjustments, in particular how labour productivity affects competitiveness and if this in turn stimulates exports. Choice among commonly applied labour market assumptions and trade elasticities results in widely different outcomes. Appraisal of such policies should consider not only the impact on human capital stocks, but also adjustments outside the labour market.

Financial viability of energy from marine biomass: re-examination of the evidence

Macroalgae has been suggested as a source of next generation bioenergy. For this to materialise commercial viability or social benefits have to be demonstrated. At least any expected financial loss has to be modest enough to be offset by potential wider social impacts. This paper summarises and re-examines evidence on potential financial viability concentrating on the anaerobic digestion (AD) of harvested seaweed. We estimate the energy potential of such operations in Scotland and conduct sensitivity analyses around financial parameters, feedstock costs and energy prices. The outcome is highly sensitive to the input price of the feedstock. The analysis suggests a significant increase in wholesale prices of energy would be needed to ensure commercial viability. However, we do not consider potential synergies with other AD operations or local industries. Nor do we allow for social costs and benefits as would be included in a full cost–benefit framework.

Social origin and the financial feasibility of going to university: the role of wage penalties and availability of funding

ABSTRACT The evidence on why students from lower social origin are persistently underrepresented in higher education (HE) suggests social, educational and economic factors all play a role. We concentrate on the influence of monetary costs/benefits and how these are influenced by social origin. In particular, we consider the effect of a class-based wage penalty in the labour market and, using evidence from a large-scale survey of Scottish students, we show how the greater financial constraints facing working-class students affects the incentive to participate in HE. Using a simple model of human capital investment, the low rate of working-class participation in HE is shown to be consistent with rational behaviour, i.e. weighing the monetary costs and benefits, participating in HE is a less attractive investment proposition for some students. We conduct simulations which suggest this could be mitigated by generous income-contingent support.