Krzysztof Bartoszek

Interpreting the Evolutionary Regression: The Interplay Between Observational and Biological Errors in Phylogenetic Comparative Studies

Regressions of biological variables across species are rarely perfect. Usually, there are residual deviations from the estimated model relationship, and such deviations commonly show a pattern of phylogenetic correlations indicating that they have biological causes. We discuss the origins and effects of phylogenetically correlated biological variation in regression studies. In particular, we discuss the interplay of biological deviations with deviations due to observational or measurement errors, which are also important in comparative studies based on estimated species means. We show how bias in estimated evolutionary regressions can arise from several sources, including phylogenetic inertia and either observational or biological error in the predictor variables. We show how all these biases can be estimated and corrected for in the presence of phylogenetic correlations. We present general formulas for incorporating measurement error in linear models with correlated data. We also show how alternative regression models, such as major axis and reduced major axis regression, which are often recommended when there is error in predictor variables, are strongly biased when there is biological variation in any part of the model. We argue that such methods should never be used to estimate evolutionary or allometric regression slopes.

A phylogenetic comparative method for studying multivariate adaptation

Phylogenetic comparative methods have been limited in the way they model adaptation. Although some progress has been made, there are still no methods that can fully account for coadaptation between traits. Based on Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) models of adaptive evolution, we present a method, with R implementation, in which multiple traits evolve both in response to each other and, as in previous OU models, to fixed or randomly evolving predictor variables. We present the interpretation of the model parameters in terms of evolutionary and optimal regressions enabling the study of allometric and adaptive relationships between traits. To illustrate the method we reanalyze a data set of antler and body-size evolution in deer (Cervidae).

Interspecies correlation for neutrally evolving traits.

A simple way to model phenotypic evolution is to assume that after splitting, the trait values of the sister species diverge as independent Brownian motions. Relying only on a prior distribution for the underlying species tree (conditioned on the number, n, of extant species) we study the random vector (X(1),…,X(n)) of the observed trait values. In this paper we derive compact formulae for the variance of the sample mean and the mean of the sample variance for the vector (X(1),…,X(n)). The key ingredient of these formulae is the correlation coefficient between two trait values randomly chosen from (X(1),…,X(n)). This interspecies correlation coefficient takes into account not only variation due to the random sampling of two species out of n and the stochastic nature of Brownian motion but also the uncertainty in the phylogenetic tree. The latter is modeled by a (supercritical or critical) conditioned branching process. In the critical case we modify the Aldous-Popovic model by assuming a proper prior for the time of origin.

Phlorotannin production and lipid oxidation as a potential protective function against high photosynthetically active and UV radiation in gametophytes of Alaria esculenta (Alariales, Phaeophyceae).

Radiation damage can inter alia result in lipid peroxidation of macroalgal cell membranes. To prevent photo‐oxidation within the cells, photoprotective substances such as phlorotannins are synthesized. In the present study, changes in total fatty acids (FA), FA composition and intra/extracellular phlorotannin contents were determined by gas chromatography and the Folin‐Ciocalteu method to investigate the photoprotective potential of phlorotannins to prevent lipid peroxidation. Alaria esculenta juveniles (Phaeophyceae) were exposed over 20 days to high/low photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) in combination with UV radiation (UVR) in the treatments: PAB (low/high PAR + UV‐B + UV‐A), PA (low/high PAR + UV‐A) or low/high PAR only. While extracellular phlorotannins increased after 10 days, intracellular phlorotannins increased with exposure time and PA and decreased under PAB. Interactive effects of time:radiation wavebands, time:PAR dose as well as radiation wavebands:PAR dose were observed. Low FA contents were detected in the PA and PAB treatments; interactive effects were observed between time:high PAR and PAB:high PAR. Total FA contents were correlated to extra/intracellular phlorotannin contents. Our results suggest that phlorotannins might play a role in intra/extracellular protection by absorption and oxidation processes. Changes in FA content/composition upon UVR and high PAR might be considered as an adaptive mechanism of the A. esculenta juveniles subjected to variations in solar irradiance.

Quantifying the effects of anagenetic and cladogenetic evolution

An ongoing debate in evolutionary biology is whether phenotypic change occurs predominantly around the time of speciation or whether it instead accumulates gradually over time. In this work I propose a general framework incorporating both types of change, quantify the effects of speciational change via the correlation between species and attribute the proportion of change to each type. I discuss results of parameter estimation of Hominoid body size in this light. I derive mathematical formulae related to this problem, the probability generating functions of the number of speciation events along a randomly drawn lineage and from the most recent common ancestor of two randomly chosen tip species for a conditioned Yule tree. Additionally I obtain in closed form the variance of the distance from the root to the most recent common ancestor of two randomly chosen tip species.

Time to a single hybridization event in a group of species with unknown ancestral history

We consider a stochastic process for the generation of species which combines a Yule process with a simple model for hybridization between pairs of co-existent species. We assume that the origin of the process, when there was one species, occurred at an unknown time in the past, and we condition the process on producing n species via the Yule process and a single hybridization event. We prove results about the distribution of the time of the hybridization event. In particular we calculate a formula for all moments and show that under various conditions, the distribution tends to an exponential with rate twice that of the birth rate for the Yule process.

Prevalence Problem in the Set of Quadratic StochasticOperators Acting on L1

This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of prevalence in the class of quadratic stochastic operators acting on the

A Central Limit Theorem for Punctuated Equilibrium

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