Krzysztof Kochanek

Generalized Exponential Distribution in Flood Frequency Analysis for Polish Rivers

Many distributions have been used in flood frequency analysis (FFA) for fitting the flood extremes data. However, as shown in the paper, the scatter of Polish data plotted on the moment ratio diagram shows that there is still room for a new model. In the paper, we study the usefulness of the generalized exponential (GE) distribution in flood frequency analysis for Polish Rivers. We investigate the fit of GE distribution to the Polish data of the maximum flows in comparison with the inverse Gaussian (IG) distribution, which in our previous studies showed the best fitting among several models commonly used in FFA. Since the use of a discrimination procedure without the knowledge of its performance for the considered probability density functions may lead to erroneous conclusions, we compare the probability of correct selection for the GE and IG distributions along with the analysis of the asymptotic model error in respect to the upper quantile values. As an application, both GE and IG distributions are alternatively assumed for describing the annual peak flows for several gauging stations of Polish Rivers. To find the best fitting model, four discrimination procedures are used. In turn, they are based on the maximized logarithm of the likelihood function (K procedure), on the density function of the scale transformation maximal invariant (QK procedure), on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics (KS procedure) and the fourth procedure based on the differences between the ML estimate of 1% quantile and its value assessed by the method of moments and linear moments, in sequence (R procedure). Due to the uncertainty of choosing the best model, the method of aggregation is applied to estimate of the maximum flow quantiles.

Comparison of Two Nonstationary Flood Frequency Analysis Methods within the Context of the Variable Regime in the Representative Polish Rivers

Changes in river flow regime resulted in a surge in the number of methods of non-stationary flood frequency analysis. Common assumption is the time-invariant distribution function with time-dependent location and scale parameters while the shape parameters are time-invariant. Here, instead of location and scale parameters of the distribution, the mean and standard deviation are used. We analyse the accuracy of the two methods in respect to estimation of time-dependent first two moments, time-invariant skewness and time-dependent upper quantiles. The method of maximum likelihood (ML) with time covariate is confronted with the Two Stage (TS) one (combining Weighted Least Squares and L-moments techniques). Comparison is made by Monte Carlo simulations. Assuming parent distribution which ensures the asymptotic superiority of ML method, the Generalized Extreme Value distribution with various values of linearly changing in time first two moments, constant skewness, and various time-series lengths are considered. Analysis of results indicates the superiority of TS methods in all analyzed aspects. Moreover, the estimates from TS method are more resistant to probability distribution choice, as demonstrated by Polish rivers’ case studies.

Distributed Modelling of Flow in the Middle Reach of the River Vistula

The article aims to present a step-by-step procedure of distributed modelling of river flow by contrasting two commonly used modelling tools: MIKE 11 and HEC-RAS. The middle River Vistula reach constitutes the case study for the ‘debate’. Although different in form, level of complexity and price, both models lead to similar results for flood modelling, including the uncertainty of the simulated flow. The slight superiority of the MIKE 11 model stems from the automatic estimation of its parameters.

A decision support system for groundwater: water management issues for opencast mining

In many East European countries brown coal mined in open pits has been for many years the major source of energy for industrial and domestic usage. For instance, in Poland ca. 70 M tonnes of brown coal are mined per annum, 6.9% of total world output. In the Czech Republic opencast mining yields ca. 58 M tonnes of brown coal per annum. The mining equipment requires dry conditions, thus open pits need intensive dewatering. As a result of groundwater abstraction, huge depression cones are formed affecting ground water over an extensive area, perhaps 5-10 times larger than the pit itself.

Otoacoustic emissions from ears with spontaneous activity behave differently to those without: Stronger responses to tone bursts as well as to clicks

It has been reported that both click-evoked otoacoustic emissions (CEOAEs) and distortion product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAEs) have higher amplitudes in ears that possess spontaneous otoacoustic emissions (SOAEs). The general aim of the present study was to investigate whether the presence of spontaneous activity in the cochlea affected tone-burst evoked otoacoustic emissions (TBOAEs). As a benchmark, the study also measured growth functions of CEOAEs. Spontaneous activity in the cochlea was measured by the level of synchronized spontaneous otoacoustic emissions (SSOAEs), an emission evoked by a click but closely related to spontaneous otoacoustic emissions (SOAEs, which are detectable without any stimulus). Measurements were made on a group of 15 adults whose ears were categorized as either having recordable SSOAEs or no SSOAEs. In each ear, CEOAEs and TBOAEs were registered at frequencies of 0.5, 1, 2, and 4 kHz, and input/output functions were measured at 40, 50, 60, 70, and 80 dB SPL. Global and half-octave-band values of response level and latency were estimated. Our main finding was that in ears with spontaneous activity, TBOAEs had higher levels than in ears without. The difference was more apparent for global values, but were also seen with half-octave-band analysis. Input/output functions had similar growth rates for ears with and without SSOAEs. There were no significant differences in latencies between TBOAEs from ears with and without SSOAEs, although latencies tended to be longer for lower stimulus levels and lower stimulus frequencies. When TBOAE levels were compared to CEOAE levels, the latter showed greater differences between recordings from ears with and without SSOAEs. Although TBOAEs reflect activity from a more restricted cochlear region than CEOAEs, at all stimulus frequencies their behavior still depends on whether SSOAEs are present or not.

‘New insight into statistical hydrology’ preface to the special issue

Statistical methods are still the basic tool for investigating random, extreme events occurring in hydrosphere. On 21-22 September 2017, in Warsaw (Poland) the international workshop of the Statistical Hydrology (StaHy) 2017 took place under the auspices of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences. The authors of the presentations proposed to publish their research results in the Special Issue of the Acta Geophysica–‘New Insight into Statistical Hydrology’. Five papers were selected for publication, touching on the most crucial issues of statistical methodology in hydrology.

On the Run Length in Annual Maximum Flow Series in the Middle Vistula Basin in the Context of Climate Change Impact

This chapter presents an application of the 1st order Markov model to the description of flood-poor and flood-rich period length. The flood-poor and flood-rich periods are defined as a sequence of successive years with maximum flows lower (for flood-poor) or greater (for flood-rich) than the specified threshold. The theoretical distributions for two chosen thresholds (median and upper quartile) are compared with empirical distributions for the series of annual flow maxima at Warsaw gauging station, representative for the Middle Vistula River reach, in order to determine an indicator for the assessment of changes in flood regime under the future climate. The results have shown that serial dependency in Warsaw maximum flow series—the longest series in Poland—is rather weak and the run length distributions are not significantly affected by this dependency. The longest flood-poor period of 19 years has been found for the upper quartile threshold.

Flood Quantile Estimates Related to Model and Optimization Criteria

Flood frequency analysis (FFA) provides information about the probable size of flood flows. Empirical methods are more commonly employed in engineering design and planning, and among empirical methods the at-site frequency analysis is by far the most commonly used method. When applying the methods of at-site flood frequency analysis, it is clear that the role of hydrology seems minor at best and the role of statistics seems to be the lead one, whereas it should be the other way round. FFA entails the estimation of the upper quantiles of an assumed form of a probability density function of the annual or partial duration maximum flows, as the true function is not known. In the paper, the five two-parameter models and their three-parameter counterparts have been assumed successively for describing the annual peak flows for Nowy Targ gauging station on the Dunajec River. The 1 % quantile has been estimated by four optimization criteria. To find the best fitting model, three discrimination procedures have been applied. The best fitting model and, thus, hydrological design value depends on the optimization criterion and the procedure of discrimination. It is characteristic for hydrological size of samples. At the same time, the designers of the hydraulic structures want to have a unique value, not accepting the uncertainty. It seems essential that we should go back and start examining the way in which we have been doing the hydrological frequency analysis.