Kuan-Man Xu

Single-column models and cloud ensemble models as links between observations and climate models

Abstract Among the methods that have been devised to test physical parameterizations used in general circulation models, one of the most promising involves the use of field data together with single-column models (SCMs) and/or cloud ensemble models. Here the authors briefly discuss the data requirements of such models and then give several examples of their use. Emphasis is on parameterizations of convection and cloud amount.

A Semiempirical Cloudiness Parameterization for Use in Climate Models

Abstract Data produced from explicit simulations of observed tropical cloud systems and subtropical stratocumuli are used to develop a “semiempirical” cloudiness parameterization for use in climate models. The semiempirical cloudiness parameterization uses the large-scale average condensate (cloud water and cloud ice) mixing ratio as the primary predictor. The large-scale relative humidity and cumulus mass flux are also used in the parameterization as secondary predictors. The cloud amount is assumed to vary exponentially with the large-scale average condensate mixing ratio. The rate of variation is, however, a function of large-scale relative humidity and the intensity of convective circulations. The validity of such EL semiempirical approach and its dependency on cloud regime and horizontal-averaging distance are explored with the simulated datasets.

Explicit Simulation of Cumulus Ensembles with the GATE Phase III Data: Comparison with Observations

Abstract The macroscopic behavior of cumulus convection and its mesoscale organization during Phase III of the Global Atmospheric Research Programs (GARP) Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) is simulated with a two-dimensional (2D) cloud ensemble model. The model includes a three-phase bulk microphysics parameterization, a third-moment turbulence closure and an interactive, radiative transfer parameterization. The observed large-scale, horizontal advective effects and large-scale vertical velocity me imposed on the models thermodynamic equations uniformly in the horizontal. The simulated, domain-averaged horizontal wind components are nudged toward the observed winds. A detailed comparison with available observations is made in this study. The observed time variations of the surface precipitation rate, surface evaporation rate, outgoing longwave radiation flux, and the vertical distributions of temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and relative humidity are successfully reproduced by the model, as well...

A comparison of single column model simulations of summertime midlatitude continental convection

Eleven different single-column models (SCMs) and one cloud ensemble model (CEM) are driven by boundary conditions observed at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program southern Great Plains site for a 17 day period during the summer of 1995. Comparison of the model simulations reveals common signatures identifiable as products of errors in the boundary conditions. Intermodel differences in the simulated temperature, humidity, cloud, precipitation, and radiative fluxes reflect differences in model resolution or physical parameterizations, although sensitive dependence on initial conditions can also contribute to intermodel differences. All models perform well at times but poorly at others. Although none of the SCM simulations stands out as superior to the others, the simulation by the CEM is in several respects in better agreement with the observations than the simulations by the SCMs. Nudging of the simulated temperature and humidity toward observations generally improves the simulated cloud and radiation fields as well as the simulated temperature and humidity but degrades the precipitation simulation for models with large temperature and humidity biases without nudging. Although some of the intermodel differences have not been explained, others have been identified as model problems that can be or have been corrected as a result of the comparison.

The Iris Hypothesis: A Negative or Positive Cloud Feedback?

Abstract Using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite measurements over tropical oceans, this study evaluates the iris hypothesis recently proposed by Lindzen et al. that tropical upper-tropospheric anvils act as a strong negative feedback in the global climate system. The modeled radiative fluxes of Lindzen et al. are replaced by the Clouds and the Earths Radiant Energy System (CERES) directly observed broadband radiation fields. The observations show that the clouds have much higher albedos and moderately larger longwave fluxes than those assumed by Lindzen et al. As a result, decreases in these clouds would cause a significant but weak positive feedback to the climate system, instead of providing a strong negative feedback.

The macroscopic behavior of cumulus ensembles simulated by a cumulus ensemble model

Abstract The two-dimensional UCLA cumulus ensemble model (CEM), which covers a large horizontal area with a sufficiently small horizontal grid size, is used in this study. A number of simulation experiments are performed with the CEM to study the macroscopic behavior of cumulus convection under a variety of different large-scale and underlying surface conditions. Specifically, the modulation of cumulus activity by the imposed large-scale processes and the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) budget are investigated in detail. In all simulations, cumulus convection is rather strongly modulated by large-scale advective processes in spite of the existence of some nonmodulated high-frequency fluctuations. The modulation exhibits some phase delays, however, when the basic wind shear is strong. This is presumably associated with the existence of mesoscale convective organization. The EKE budget analysis shows that the net eddy buoyancy generation rate is nearly zero for a wide range of cumulus ensembles.

CGILS: Results from the First Phase of an International Project to Understand the Physical Mechanisms of Low Cloud Feedbacks in Single Column Models

CGILS—the CFMIP-GASS Intercomparison of Large Eddy Models (LESs) and single column models (SCMs)—investigates the mechanisms of cloud feedback in SCMs and LESs under idealized climate change perturbation. This paper describes the CGILS results from 15 SCMs and 8 LES models. Three cloud regimes over the subtropical oceans are studied: shallow cumulus, cumulus under stratocumulus, and well-mixed coastal stratus/stratocumulus. In the stratocumulus and coastal stratus regimes, SCMs without activated shallow convection generally simulated negative cloud feedbacks, while models with active shallow convection generally simulated positive cloud feedbacks. In the shallow cumulus alone regime, this relationship is less clear, likely due to the changes in cloud depth, lateral mixing, and precipitation or a combination of them. The majority of LES models simulated negative cloud feedback in the well-mixed coastal stratus/stratocumulus regime, and positive feedback in the shallow cumulus and stratocumulus regime. A general framework is provided to interpret SCM results: in a warmer climate, the moistening rate of the cloudy layer associated with the surface-based turbulence parameterization is enhanced; together with weaker large-scale subsidence, it causes negative cloud feedback. In contrast, in the warmer climate, the drying rate associated with the shallow convection scheme is enhanced. This causes positive cloud feedback. These mechanisms are summarized as the “NESTS” negative cloud feedback and the “SCOPE” positive cloud feedback (Negative feedback from Surface Turbulence under weaker Subsidence—Shallow Convection PositivE feedback) with the net cloud feedback depending on how the two opposing effects counteract each other. The LES results are consistent with these interpretations.

Recent Trends of the Tropical Hydrological Cycle Inferred from Global Precipitation Climatology Project and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project data

Received 15 October 2010; revised 4 January 2011; accepted 7 February 2011; published 7 May 2011. [1] Scores of modeling studies have shown that increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere impact the global hydrologic cycle; however, disagreements on regional scales are large, and thus the simulated trends of such impacts, even for regions as large as the tropics, remain uncertain. The present investigation attempts to examine such trends in the observations using satellite data products comprising Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project cloud and radiation. Specifically, evolving trends of the tropical hydrological cycle over the last 20–30 years were identified and analyzed. The results show (1) intensification of tropical precipitation in the rising regions of the Walker and Hadley circulations and weakening over the sinking regions of the associated overturning circulation; (2) poleward shift of the subtropical dry zones (up to 2° decade −1 in June‐July‐August (JJA) in the Northern Hemisphere and 0.3–0.7° decade −1 in June‐July‐August and September‐ October‐November in the Southern Hemisphere) consistent with an overall broadening of the Hadley circulation; and (3) significant poleward migration (0.9–1.7° decade −1 ) of cloud boundaries of Hadley cell and plausible narrowing of the high cloudiness in the Intertropical Convergence Zone region in some seasons. These results support findings of some of the previous studies that showed strengthening of the tropical hydrological cycle and expansion of the Hadley cell that are potentially related to the recent global warming trends.

Impact of Interactive Radiative Transfer on the Macroscopic Behavior of Cumulus Ensembles. Part II: Mechanisms for Cloud-Radiation Interactions

Abstract The two-dimensional UCLA cumulus ensemble model is used to examine the impact of cloud-radiation interactions on the macroscopic behavior of cumulus ensembles. Two sets of simulations are performed with noninteractive (NI) and fully interactive (FI) radiative transfer, and with prescribed large-scale advective effects. The time-varying horizontally averaged radiative heating rates QR from the FI simulators are used to prescribe the time-varying, horizontally homogeneous QR in the NI simulations. The effects of both longwave radiation and diurnally varying solar radiation are examined from these two sets of simulations. The diurnally varying solar radiation can drive a diurnal cycle of deep convection over the tropical oceans by stabbing the large-scale environment during the daytime relative to the nighttime. The results presented in this study confirm the dominant role of the direct radiation-convection interaction mechanism for the diurnal cycle of oceanic precipitation. Comparison of the resul...

Updraft and Downdraft Statistics of Simulated Tropical and Midlatitude Cumulus Convection

Abstract This paper presents a detailed analysis of updraft and downdraft statistics of simulated tropical oceanic and midlatitude continental cumulus convection, with an emphasis on the individual terms in the vertical momentum budget. Strong convective cores with absolute vertical velocities over 1 m s−1 and total condensate mixing ratios over 0.1 g kg−1 are sampled from several long-term simulations, driven by the observed large-scale advective forcings over the eastern Atlantic and Oklahoma regions. The median updraft and downdraft velocities are weakly dependent upon height, but the 90th percentile of the updraft velocity varies strongly with height, with a maximum in the middle troposphere. The median updraft thermal buoyancies are only about 0.5 K higher than those of downdrafts. As in aircraft measurements, positive thermal buoyancies exist for more than half of downdraft cores, and negative thermal buoyancies exist for a significant number of updrafts. The existence of the nonhydrostatic pressure...