Kundan Kandhway

How to run a campaign: Optimal control of SIS and SIR information epidemics

Information spreading in a population can be modeled as an epidemic. Campaigners (e.g., election campaign managers, companies marketing products or movies) are interested in spreading a message by a given deadline, using limited resources. In this paper, we formulate the above situation as an optimal control problem and the solution (using Pontryagins Maximum Principle) prescribes an optimal resource allocation over the time of the campaign. We consider two different scenarios-in the first, the campaigner can adjust a direct control (over time) which allows her to recruit individuals from the population (at some cost) to act as spreaders for the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic model. In the second case, we allow the campaigner to adjust the effective spreading rate by incentivizing the infected in the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, in addition to the direct recruitment. We consider time varying information spreading rate in our formulation to model the changing interest level of individuals in the campaign, as the deadline is reached. In both the cases, we show the existence of a solution and its uniqueness for sufficiently small campaign deadlines. For the fixed spreading rate, we show the effectiveness of the optimal control strategy against the constant control strategy, a heuristic control strategy and no control. We show the sensitivity of the optimal control to the spreading rate profile when it is time varying.

Optimal control of information epidemics modeled as Maki Thompson rumors

We model the spread of information in a homogeneously mixed population using the Maki Thompson rumor model. We formulate an optimal control problem, from the perspective of single campaigner, to maximize the spread of information when the campaign budget is fixed. Control signals, such as advertising in the mass media, attempt to convert ignorants and stiflers into spreaders. We show the existence of a solution to the optimal control problem when the campaigning incurs non-linear costs under the isoperimetric budget constraint. The solution employs Pontryagins Minimum Principle and a modified version of forward backward sweep technique for numerical computation to accommodate the isoperimetric budget constraint. The techniques developed in this paper are general and can be applied to similar optimal control problems in other areas. We have allowed the spreading rate of the information epidemic to vary over the campaign duration to model practical situations when the interest level of the population in the subject of the campaign changes with time. The shape of the optimal control signal is studied for different model parameters and spreading rate profiles. We have also studied the variation of the optimal campaigning costs with respect to various model parameters. Results indicate that, for some model parameters, significant improvements can be achieved by the optimal strategy compared to the static control strategy. The static strategy respects the same budget constraint as the optimal strategy and has a constant value throughout the campaign horizon. This work finds application in election and social awareness campaigns, product advertising, movie promotion and crowdfunding campaigns

Campaigning in heterogeneous social networks: optimal control of SI information epidemics

We study the optimal control problem of maximizing the spread of an information epidemic on a social network. Information propagation is modeled as a susceptible-infected (SI) process, and the campaign budget is fixed. Direct recruitment and word-of-mouth incentives are the two strategies to accelerate information spreading (controls). We allow for multiple controls depending on the degree of the nodes/individuals. The solution optimally allocates the scarce resource over the campaign duration and the degree class groups. We study the impact of the degree distribution of the network on the controls and present results for Erdös-Rényi and scale-free networks. Results show that more resource is allocated to high-degree nodes in the case of scale-free networks, but medium-degree nodes in the case of Erdös-Rényi networks. We study the effects of various model parameters on the optimal strategy and quantify the improvement offered by the optimal strategy over the static and bang-bang control strategies. The effect of the time-varying spreading rate on the controls is explored as the interest level of the population in the subject of the campaign may change over time. We show the existence of a solution to the formulated optimal control problem, which has nonlinear isoperimetric constraints, using novel techniques that is general and can be used in other similar optimal control problems. This work may be of interest to political, social awareness, or crowdfunding campaigners and product marketing managers, and with some modifications may be used for mitigating biological epidemics.

Using Node Centrality and Optimal Control to Maximize Information Diffusion in Social Networks

We model information dissemination as a susceptible-infected epidemic process and formulate a problem to jointly optimize seeds for the epidemic and time varying resource allocation over the period of a fixed duration campaign running on a social network with a given adjacency matrix. Individuals in the network are grouped according to their centrality measure and each group is influenced by an external control function—implemented through advertisements—during the campaign duration. The aim is to maximize an objective function which is a linear combination of the reward due to the fraction of informed individuals at the deadline, and the aggregated cost of applying controls (advertising) over the campaign duration. We also study a problem variant with a fixed budget constraint. We set up the optimality system using Pontryagin’s maximum principle from optimal control theory and solve it numerically using the forward–backward sweep technique. Our formulation allows us to compare the performance of various centrality measures (pagerank, degree, closeness, and betweenness) in maximizing the spread of a message in the optimal control framework. We find that degree—a simple and local measure—performs well on the three social networks used to demonstrate results: 1) scientific collaboration; 2) Slashdot; and 3) Facebook. The optimal strategy targets central nodes when the resource is scarce, but noncentral nodes are targeted when the resource is in abundance. Our framework is general and can be used in similar studies for other disease or information spread models—that can be modeled using a system of ordinary differential equations—for a network with a known adjacency matrix.

Accelerating Information Diffusion in Social Networks Under the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible Epidemic Model

Standard Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic models assume that a message spreads from the infected to the susceptible nodes due to only susceptible-infected epidemic contact. We modify the standard SIS epidemic model to include direct recruitment of susceptible individuals to the infected class at a constant rate (independent of epidemic contacts), to accelerate information spreading in a social network. Such recruitment can be carried out by placing advertisements in the media. We provide a closed form analytical solution for system evolution in the proposed model and use it to study campaigning in two different scenarios. In the first, the net cost function is a linear combination of the reward due to extent of information diffusion and the cost due to application of control. In the second, the campaign budget is fixed. Results reveal the effectiveness of the proposed system in accelerating and improving the extent of information diffusion. Our work is useful for devising effective strategies for product marketing and political/social-awareness/crowd-funding campaigns that target individuals in a social network.

Robust Power Allocation and Outage Analysis for Secrecy in Independent Parallel Gaussian Channels

This letter studies parallel independent Gaussian channels with uncertain eavesdropper channel state information (CSI). First, we evaluate the probability of zero secrecy rate in this system for 1) given instantaneous channel conditions and 2) a Rayleigh fading scenario. Second, when nonzero secrecy is achievable in the low SNR regime, we aim to solve a robust power allocation problem, which minimizes the outage probability at a target secrecy rate. We bound the outage probability and obtain a linear fractional program that takes into account the uncertainty in eavesdropper CSI while allocating power on the parallel channels. Problem structure is exploited to solve this optimization problem efficiently. We find the proposed scheme effective for uncertain eavesdropper CSI in comparison with conventional power allocation schemes.

Urban monitoring using participatory sensing: An optimal budget allocation approach

We study a budget allocation problem for urban monitoring (e.g., pollution, litter etc.) using participatory sensing. The human participants and locations of phenomena to be sensed are modeled as Poisson point processes. The decision maker (e.g., city authority) has to decide the split of budget among strategies-advertisements to recruit participants, and providing rewards to those participants for their efforts in reporting the events. We propose and analyse three schemes for rewarding participants-equal, proportional and probabilistic. The probabilistic scheme exploits risk seeking behavior of participants, which is a typical human psychological behavior studied in the Prospect theory. Analytical and numerical study of the proposed schemes uncovers useful insights such as, for the equal reward scheme, advertisement for recruiting more individuals is preferable than increasing rewards for the recruited individuals. However, the opposite is true for the other two schemes.

Game theoretic analysis of tree based referrals for crowd sensing social systems with passive rewards

Participatory crowd sensing social systems rely on the participation of large number of individuals. Since humans are strategic by nature, effective incentive mechanisms are needed to encourage participation. A popular mechanism to recruit individuals is through referrals and passive incentives such as geometric incentive mechanisms used by the winning team in the 2009 DARPA Network Challenge and in multi level marketing schemes. The effect of such recruitment schemes on the effort put in by recruited strategic individuals is not clear. This paper attempts to fill this gap. Given a referral tree and the direct and passive reward mechanism, we formulate a network game where agents compete for finishing crowd sensing tasks. We characterize the Nash equilibrium efforts put in by the agents and derive closed form expressions for the same. We discover free riding behavior among nodes who obtain large passive rewards. This work has implications on designing effective recruitment mechanisms for crowd sourced tasks. For example, usage of geometric incentive mechanisms to recruit large number of individuals may not result in proportionate effort because of free riding.

Optimal Resource Allocation Over Time and Degree Classes for Maximizing Information Dissemination in Social Networks

We study the optimal control problem of allocating campaigning resources over the campaign duration and degree classes in a social network. Information diffusion is modeled as a Susceptible-Infected epidemic and direct recruitment of susceptible nodes to the infected (informed) class is used as a strategy to accelerate the spread of information. We formulate an optimal control problem for optimizing a net reward function, a linear combination of the reward due to information spread and cost due to application of controls. The time varying resource allocation and seeds for the epidemic are jointly optimized. A problem variation includes a fixed budget constraint. We prove the existence of a solution for the optimal control problem, provide conditions for uniqueness of the solution, and prove some structural results for the controls (e.g., controls are non-increasing functions of time). The solution technique uses Pontryagins Maximum Principle and the forward-backward sweep algorithm (and its modifications) for numerical computations. Our formulations lead to large optimality systems with up to about 200 differential equations and allow us to study the effect of network topology (Erdos-Rényi/scale-free) on the controls. Results reveal that the allocation of campaigning resources to various degree classes depends not only on the network topology but also on system parameters such as cost/abundance of resources. The optimal strategies lead to significant gains over heuristic strategies for various model parameters. Our modeling approach assumes uncorrelated network, however, we find the approach useful for real networks as well. This work is useful in product advertising, political and crowdfunding campaigns in social networks.

Finding a Research Problem: Tips for New Ph.D. Students

By the time Ph.D. students complete their degree, they are expected to have three to four major contributions in their dissertation. However, the foundation stone of their thesis is laid at the very beginning of their degree. The area in which the student is supposed to work is usually known beforehand, and it is the same as the research area of his/her advisor. But more often than not, students are faced with the challenge of finding a suitable problem on which to start their research work. Skills to achieve this in an organized manner, keeping future implications in mind, are seldom taught to students. This article is to help new Ph.D. students find an interesting and suitable research problem at the start of their degree.