Kuo-Jen Liao

Sensitivity of air pollution-induced premature mortality to precursor emissions under the influence of climate change.

The relative contributions of PM2.5 and ozone precursor emissions to air pollution-related premature mortality modulated by climate change are estimated for the U.S. using sensitivities of air pollutants to precursor emissions and health outcomes for 2001 and 2050. Result suggests that states with high emission rates and significant premature mortality increases induced by PM2.5 will substantially benefit in the future from SO2, anthropogenic NOX and NH3 emissions reductions while states with premature mortality increases induced by O3 will benefit mainly from anthropogenic NOX emissions reduction. Much of the increase in premature mortality expected from climate change-induced pollutant increases can be offset by targeting a specific precursor emission in most states based on the modeling approach followed here.

Development of North American Emission Inventories for Air Quality Modeling under Climate Change

Abstract An assessment of how future climate change will impact regional air quality requires projecting emissions many decades into the future in a consistent manner. An approach that integrates the impact of both the current regulations and the longer-term national and global trends is developed to construct an emissions inventory (EI) for North America for the mid-century in support of a regional modeling study of ozone and particulate matter (PM) less than or equal to 2.5 μm (PM2.5). Because the time horizon of such a distant projection is beyond that of EIs used in typical modeling studies, it is necessary to identify a practical approach that allows the emission projections to account for emission controls and climatic and energy-use changes. However, a technical challenge arises because this requires integration of various different types of information with which emissions from human activities are associated. Often, emission information in global models has less detail and uses coarser spatiotemporal resolution. The method developed here is based on data availability, spatiotemporal coverage and resolution, and future-scenario consistency (i.e., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [IPCC SRES] A1B), and consists of two major steps: (1) near-future EI projection (to the year 2020), and (2) longer-term EI projection (to mid-century). The first step is based closely on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Clean Air Interstate Rule EI, the Environment Canada EI, as well estimates of Mexico’s EI; whereas the second step follows approaches proposed by the EI from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE), developed by Netherlands’s National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). For the United States, the year-2050 emissions for nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), PM2.5, anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and ammonia are projected to change by -55, -55, -30, -40, and [H11001]20%, respectively, compared with 2001. NOx and SO2 emission changes are very similar in total amount but different in sectoral contribution. The projected emission trends for Canada and Mexico differ considerably. After taking into account the modeled climate changes, biogenic VOC emission increases from three countries overwhelm the decreases in anthropogenic VOC emissions, leading to a net small increase (~2%) in overall VOC emissions.

Cost Analysis of Impacts of Climate Change on Regional Air Quality

Abstract Climate change has been predicted to adversely impact regional air quality with resulting health effects. Here a regional air quality model and a technology analysis tool are used to assess the additional emission reductions required and associated costs to offset impacts of climate change on air quality. Analysis is done for six regions and five major cities in the continental United States. Future climate is taken from a global climate model simulation for 2049-2051 using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario, and emission inventories are the same as current ones to assess impacts of climate change alone on air quality and control expenses. On the basis of the IPCC A1B emission scenario and current control technologies, least-cost sets of emission reductions for simultaneously offsetting impacts of climate change on regionally averaged 4th highest daily maximum 8-hr average ozone and yearly averaged PM2.5 (particulate matter [PM] with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm) for the six regions examined are predicted to range from

Accountability assessment of regulatory impacts on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations using statistical and deterministic pollutant sensitivities

36 million (1999

Optimization of multipollutant air quality management strategies: A case study for five cities in the United States

) yr-1 in the Southeast to

Development of risk-based air quality management strategies under impacts of climate change

5.5 billion yr-1 in the Northeast. However, control costs to offset climate-related pollutant increases in urban areas can be greater than the regional costs because of the locally exacerbated ozone levels. An annual cost of

Resource allocation for mitigating regional air pollution-related mortality: A summertime case study for five cities in the United States.

4.1 billion is required for offsetting climate-induced air quality impairment in 2049-2051 in the five cities alone. Overall, an annual cost of

Impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations over the United States

9.3 billion is estimated for offsetting climate change impacts on air quality for the six regions and five cities examined. Much of the additional expense is to reduce increased levels of ozone. Additional control costs for offsetting the impacts everywhere in the United States could be larger than the estimates in this study. This study shows that additional emission controls and associated costs for offsetting climate impacts could significantly increase currently estimated control requirements and should be considered in developing control strategies for achieving air quality targets in the future.

Potential impact of climate change on air pollution-related human health effects.

Since the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, the USA has seen dramatic decreases in air pollutant emissions from a wide variety of source sectors, which have led to changes in pollutant concentrations: both up and down. Multiple stakeholders, including policy-makers, industry, and public health professionals, seek to quantify the benefits of regulations on air pollution and public health, a major focus of air pollution accountability research. Two methods, one empirical, the other based on a chemical transport model (CTM), are used to calculate the sensitivities of ozone (O3) and particulate matter with diameters less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) to electricity-generating unit (EGU) and mobile source emissions. Both methods are applied to determine impacts of controls on daily concentrations (which are important in assessing acute health responses to air pollution), accounting for nonlinear, meteorologically, and emission-dependent responses of pollutant concentrations. The statistical method separates contributions of nearby EGU, regional EGU, and mobile source emissions on ambient city-center concentrations. Counterfactual emissions, an estimate of emissions under a scenario where no new controls were implemented on local EGU sources after 1995, regional EGUs after 1997, and mobile sources after 1993, are combined with these sensitivities to estimate counterfactual concentrations that represent what daily air quality in Atlanta, GA would have been had controls not been implemented and other emissions-reducing actions not been taken. Regulatory programs are linked with reduced peak summertime O3, but have had little effect on annual median concentrations at the city-center monitoring site, and led to increases in pollutant levels under less photochemically-active conditions. The empirical method and the CTM method found similar relationships between ozone concentrations and ozone sensitivity to anthropogenic emissions. Compared to the counterfactual between 2010 and 2013, the number of days on which O3 (PM2.5) concentrations exceeded 60 ppb (12.0 μgm−3) was reduced from 396 to 200 (1391 to 222). In 2013, average daily ambient O3 and PM2.5 concentrations were reduced by 1.0 ppb (2 %) and 9.9 μgm−3 (48 %), respectively, and fourth highest maximum daily average 8-h O3 was reduced by 14 ppb. Comparison of model-derived sensitivities to those derived using empirical methods show coherence, but some important differences, such as the O3 concentration where the sensitivity to NOx emissions changes sign.

Sensitivities of ozone and fine particulate matter formation to emissions under the impact of potential future climate change.

Developing regional air quality management strategies is a difficult task because formation of air pollutants is interdependent and air quality at different locations may have different responses to emissions from common sources. We developed an optimization-based model, OPtimal integrated Emission Reduction Alternatives (OPERA), which allows for identifications of least-cost control strategies for attaining multipollutant air quality targets at multiple locations simultaneously. To implement OPERA, first, sensitivities of air quality to precursor emission changes are quantified. Second, cost functions of emission reductions are estimated using a cost analysis tool that includes a pool of available control measures. The third step is to determine desired reductions in concentrations of air pollutants. The last step is to identify the optimal control strategies by minimizing costs of emission controls using the sensitivities of air pollutants to emission changes, cost functions, and constraints for feasible emission reduction ratios. A case study that investigates ozone and PM2.5 air quality in the summer of 2007 for five major cities in the eastern United States is presented in this paper. The results of the OPERA calculations show that reductions in regional NOx and VOC as well as local primary PM2.5 emissions were more cost-effective than SO2 controls for decreasing ozone and total PM2.5 concentrations in the summer of 2007. This was because reductions in SO2 emissions would only decrease PM2.5 concentrations, and reductions in primary PM2.5 emissions were more cost-effective than SO2 emission controls. Implications: We developed an optimization-based model, OPtimal integrated Emission Reduction Alternatives (OPERA), which allows for identification of least-cost emission control strategies for attaining multipollutant air quality targets at multiple locations simultaneously. A major strength of OPERA is its flexibility, which allows for changes in air quality regulations, involving agencies, study regions, and so on, to be readily incorporated. Overall, it has been demonstrated that OPERA is useful in developing least-cost emission control strategies for achieving multipollutant air quality targets at multiple locations simultaneously and could be useful for policymakers developing integrated air quality management plans.