Kurt Kratena

Prices and factor demand in an endogenized input-output model

This paper combines factor demand functions (for intermediate input and labour) and price equations (derived from a Generalized Leontief cost function) with the traditional input–output price model. The cost functions determine factor demands for materials and labour as well as output prices at given input prices. At the second level of aggregation, the intermediate demand as a single input is split proportional to the elements in the column of the technical coefficients matrix. The emphasis in this endogenization of technical coefficients is on two features. First, the repercussion of output on input prices, and, second, the link between the econometric model for the supply side and the input–output demand model.

FIDELIO: A fully interregional dynamic econometric long-term input-output model for the EU

Policy simulations during the last decades have been heavily relying on standard static CGE models with a small number of industries. Recently DSGE models (usually termed as New Keynesian) have been developed that incorporate dynamic behavior and institutional constraints at the aggregate macroeconomic level. Only few examples of CGE models with high industry detail and dynamic behavioral rules can be found in the literature, for example the IGEM model by Jorgenson and his collaborators. We present FIDELIO as a model, oriented along the lines of IGEM, and also heavily relying on the ‘Jorgenson philosophy’ of calibrating the model with parameters taken from recent and relevant econometric work. The framework of FIDELIO is the set of supply-use tables at the level of 59 industries/commodities for the EU 27. These tables are made consistent with international trade flows, relying on the WIOD (www.wiod.org) database and thereby generating an inter-regional model set-up. The input-output structures are partly flexible (not Leontief type functions) by modeling factor demand and trade using flexible functional forms (Translog and AIDS). FIDELIO describes private consumption as a dynamic optimization process with durables, non-durables (‘buffer stock’ model) and special emphasis on energy and the energy efficiency of the stock of durables. The behavior of firms is described by a Translog model, where dynamics is introduced by adjustment of the ex post return on capital to the forward looking user cost relationship. This model differentiates K,L,E,Mm,Md inputs, therefore dealing explicitly in a flexible form with substitution between imported intermediates (Mm) and all other factors. That yields a different model of international trade compared to the standard CGE model, where imported commodities are only substituted against domestic commodities at all levels of demand. Environmental satellite accounts for energy and environment from the WIOD (www.wiod.org) database are consistently linked to the input-output structures. Factor supply is modeled by a segmented labor market (skills) with wage bargaining based on the wage curve model. Diverse policy analyses related to sustainable consumption and production in a broad sense.

Technical Change, Investment and Energy Intensity

This paper analyses the role of different components of technical change on energy intensity by applying a Translog variable cost function setting with (short- run) fixed capital to the new EU KLEMS dataset for five selected EU countries (Denmark, Italy, Netherlands, UK and Spain). The framework applied represents an accounting of technical change components, comprising autonomous (disembodied) as well as technical change embodied in capital goods. It is extended in order to incorporate embodied technical change induced by energy prices by adding an equation for (physical) capital stock accumulation. The model can be used for explaining and tracing back the long-run impact of the interaction of prices, capital accumulation and technical change on energy intensity. The empirical results distinguish between industries with embodied technical change and industries with capital-energy complementarity.

Modelling Sustainable Consumption. From Theoretical Concepts to Policy Guidelines

Changes in consumption processes have been recognised as important steps towards sustainable development. The aim of this paper is to give an overview of research on sustainable consumption and to sketch new approaches in economic modelling ofsustainable consumption. A special focus is given to the relationship between stocks and flows as well as consumer services as being welfare relevant. From that three different steps of modelling are proposed, where the links between material goods demand and consumer services demand as well as the stock-flow relationship can be made explicit.

Macroeconomic and sectoral effects of energy taxation in Austria

This paper analyses the effects of energy taxation on the Austrian economy. Simulations are carried out with a linked input-output macromodel. The macroeconomic effects of an energy tax on economic growth, employment, the rate of inflation (change in the consumer price index), the budget deficit and the current account will be explained, as well as the sectoral impact on different industries.

Impact of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reduction on the Austrian Economy

A linked econometric input-output (IO) model of the Austrian economy with an energy block is used in this study to assess the sectoral effects of carbon dioxide emissions reduction. The energy block and the other commodities are linked by a partitioned IO model. Energy demand is described using aggregate energy demand equations, by activities and subdemand systems of the translog type for different fuel types. The conversion of energy is modelled using an IO model of the energy sector. Measures for carbon dioxide reduction from detailed expert studies are introduced in the energy model and in the econometric model. The primary impacts are on energy demand, fuel shares and investment in new energy technologies. The simulation results of the partitioned IO model show different impacts on gross output, GDP and employment.