Kylie Radel

Analysing the Impact of the 2011 Natural Disasters on the Central Queensland Tourism Industry

The past decade has been particularly difficult for the tourism industry worldwide, and in Asia/Australasia in particular, as crises have followed in rapid succession, starting with the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Severe flooding in Central Queensland in early 2011, was followed soon after by Cyclone Yasi, again revealing the vulnerability of communities to the forces of nature. The tourism industry, due to the discretionary nature of the consumption activity, is particularly vulnerable to crises and the fragmented nature of the industry can make it difficult to prepare for and quickly respond to crises. This paper investigates the impacts of the 2011 flooding and Cyclone Yasi on Central Queensland tourism operators and the degree of implementation and effectiveness of the Tourism Queensland Crisis Management Plan Template to prepare regional tourism organisations and businesses for crises such as these. This research has found that whilst only a small number of Central Queensland tourism operators were directly affected by Cyclone Yasi and the flooding, the impacts and outcomes appear very similar for both those directly and indirectly affected: (i) loss of business revenue, downsizing the operation due to the decrease in the number of tourists; (ii) medium term impacts due to ongoing negative media coverage; and (iii)lack of compensation from insurance companies and the Queensland Government. All these have led to a very slow recovery for the tourism industry within Central Queensland.

GM crops in sub-Saharan Africa: A critical comment on GTAP modelling

Purpose - The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model has been used to claim that genetically modified (GM) crops have substantial positive welfare potential for sub-Saharan Africa. The purpose of this paper is to critically examine these claims with a view to seeing if this type of modelling provides any meaningful basis for agricultural policy recommendations. Design/methodology/approach - One particular study is examined to show that because any possible negative effects of GM foods are ignored, optimistic assumptions are made about increases in productivity and trade, and selective scenarios are used, the modelling must, perforce, result in positive welfare effects. Findings - It is found that, because of the assumptions of the study and the restricted scenarios investigated, all the modelling can do is estimate the size of the supposedly positive benefits. A negative outcome is not possible. Practical implications - It is argued that the GTAP model is inappropriate for sub-Saharan Africa and that the sweeping conclusions from this type of stylised modelling trivialize the complex poverty and socio-economic problems of sub-Saharan Africa. Originality/value - It is demonstrated that, in this case, the GTAP model is not only redundant, but also can yield risky policy recommendations for sub-Saharan Africa as it affects not only the livelihoods of millions of poor Africans but the ecological balance, biodiversity and economic independence of these nations.