Kyoko Hirata

AN APPROACH TO EVALUATING HUMAN DAMAGE BASED ON THE AGE STRUCTURE OF POPULATIONS IN THE EVENT OF LARGE-SCALE EARTHQUAKE DISASTERS: － An applied example from a future Tokyo inland quake －@@@－首都直下地震を想定した東京都への適用事例－

When large-scale earthquake disasters occur, the damage tends to impact elderly people more significantly than younger people. Generally speaking, as people age, they become physically and mentally weaker, and their risk of death increases. The results of previous studies show that the death toll following earthquake disasters was influenced by the age and gender of the affected population. However, that influence has not been quantitatively assessed. In this paper, we evaluate human damage as being a calculation formula based on the age structure of the population of a large-scale earthquake disaster area. On the occasion of an evaluation of the human damage, we showed disaster area population definitely. We found a correlation between the death toll caused by an earthquake and the age structure of the given population. The total expected death toll of future earthquakes was calculated using current population data, and we applied this formula to the cases of a future Tokyo inland quake.

AN ATTITUDINAL SURVEY OF LOCAL RESIDENTS’ EVACUATIONS IN BUNKYO-WARD AND FACILITY USE ASSUMPTIONS FOLLOWING THE TOKYO METROPOLITAN EARTHQUAKE: －首都直下地震に対する文京区での住民の地域防災力向上に関する研究－

The purpose of this study is to document refugees’ attitudes using a questionnaire survey and estimate the condition of shelters during the start-up period. The results of this survey provides estimates of the number of evacuees, the local councils’ preparations, and refugees’ attitude. Prominent issues were categorized into four types: 1) Shelters having a high risk of overflow shortly after the earthquake 2) Shelters in areas having a high proportion of house collapses and fires and inactive shelter-operating councils 3) Shelters with inactive shelter-operating councils and poorly informed inhabitants 4) Shelters that have to consider numerous stranded commuters