Kyoung-jae Kim

Genetic algorithms approach to feature discretization in artificial neural networks for the prediction of stock price index

Abstract This paper proposes genetic algorithms (GAs) approach to feature discretization and the determination of connection weights for artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the stock price index. Previous research proposed many hybrid models of ANN and GA for the method of training the network, feature subset selection, and topology optimization. In most of these studies, however, GA is only used to improve the learning algorithm itself. In this study, GA is employed not only to improve the learning algorithm, but also to reduce the complexity in feature space. GA optimizes simultaneously the connection weights between layers and the thresholds for feature discretization. The genetically evolved weights mitigate the well-known limitations of the gradient descent algorithm. In addition, globally searched feature discretization reduces the dimensionality of the feature space and eliminates irrelevant factors. Experimental results show that GA approach to the feature discretization model outperforms the other two conventional models.

Artificial neural networks with evolutionary instance selection for financial forecasting

In this paper, I propose a genetic algorithm (GA) approach to instance selection in artificial neural networks (ANNs) for financial data mining. ANN has preeminent learning ability, but often exhibit inconsistent and unpredictable performance for noisy data. In addition, it may not be possible to train ANN or the training task cannot be effectively carried out without data reduction when the amount of data is so large. In this paper, the GA optimizes simultaneously the connection weights between layers and a selection task for relevant instances. The globally evolved weights mitigate the well-known limitations of gradient descent algorithm. In addition, genetically selected instances shorten the learning time and enhance prediction performance. This study applies the proposed model to stock market analysis. Experimental results show that the GA approach is a promising method for instance selection in ANN.

Factors affecting the implementation success of Internet-based information systems

The Internet has come to revolutionize the way in which business conducts commercial activities. In this paper, we report on the development of a model of Internet-based information systems (IIS) implementation in business-to-consumer electronic commerce based on IS implementation and technology innovation-implementation studies. Our research model suggests that eight factors, comprising the characteristics of IIS technology innovation, organizational factors, and IS related factors, affect the implementation success of IIS. IIS themselves are characterized by three dimensions: volume, sophistication, and information contents. The suggested model was empirically tested using survey results from Korean companies that have adopted IIS. The results of multivariate regression analysis reveal that compatibility and IS infrastructure are key determinants of the extent of IIS implementation (in terms of volume, sophistication, and information contents). IS expertise potentially affects the extent of IIS implementation.

Bankruptcy prediction modeling with hybrid case-based reasoning and genetic algorithms approach

One of the most important research issues in finance is building effective corporate bankruptcy prediction models because they are essential for the risk management of financial institutions. Researchers have applied various data-driven approaches to enhance prediction performance including statistical and artificial intelligence techniques, and many of them have been proved to be useful. Case-based reasoning (CBR) is one of the most popular data-driven approaches because it is easy to apply, has no possibility of overfitting, and provides good explanation for the output. However, it has a critical limitation-its prediction performance is generally low. In this study, we propose a novel approach to enhance the prediction performance of CBR for the prediction of corporate bankruptcies. Our suggestion is the simultaneous optimization of feature weighting and the instance selection for CBR by using genetic algorithms (GAs). Our model can improve the prediction performance by referencing more relevant cases and eliminating noises. We apply our model to a real-world case. Experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of conventional CBR may be improved significantly by using our model. Our study suggests ways for financial institutions to build a bankruptcy prediction model which produces accurate results as well as good explanations for these results.

Global optimization of case-based reasoning for breast cytology diagnosis

Case-based reasoning (CBR) is one of the most popular prediction techniques in medical domains because it is easy to apply, has no possibility of overfitting, and provides a good explanation for the output. However, it has a critical limitation - its prediction performance is generally lower than other AI techniques like artificial neural networks (ANN). In order to obtain accurate results from CBR, effective retrieval and matching of useful prior cases for the problem is essential, but it is still a controversial issue to design a good matching and retrieval mechanism for CBR systems. In this study, we propose a novel approach to enhance the prediction performance of CBR. Our suggestion is the simultaneous optimization of feature weights, instance selection, and the number of neighbors that combine using genetic algorithms (GA). Our model improves the prediction performance in three ways - (1) measuring similarity between cases more accurately by considering relative importance of each feature, (2) eliminating useless or erroneous reference cases, and (3) combining several similar cases represent significant patterns. To validate the usefulness of our model, this study applied it to a real-world case for evaluating cytological features derived directly from a digital scan of breast fine needle aspirate (FNA) slides. Experimental results showed that the prediction accuracy of conventional CBR may be improved significantly by using our model. We also found that our proposed model outperformed all the other optimized models for CBR using GA.

Stock market prediction using artificial neural networks with optimal feature transformation

This paper compares a feature transformation method using a genetic algorithm (GA) with two conventional methods for artificial neural networks (ANNs). In this study, the GA is incorporated to improve the learning and generalizability of ANNs for stock market prediction. Daily predictions are conducted and prediction accuracy is measured. In this study, three feature transformation methods for ANNs are compared. Comparison of the results achieved by a feature transformation method using the GA to the other two feature transformation methods shows that the performance of the proposed model is better. Experimental results show that the proposed approach reduces the dimensionality of the feature space and decreases irrelevant factors for stock market prediction.

A corporate credit rating model using multi-class support vector machines with an ordinal pairwise partitioning approach

Predicting corporate credit-rating using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable research attention in the literature. In recent years, multi-class support vector machines (MSVMs) have become a very appealing machine-learning approach due to their good performance. Until now, researchers have proposed a variety of techniques for adapting support vector machines (SVMs) to multi-class classification, since SVMs were originally devised for binary classification. However, most of them have only focused on classifying samples into nominal categories; thus, the unique characteristic of credit-rating - ordinality - seldom has been considered in the proposed approaches. This study proposes a new type of MSVM classifier (named OMSVM) that is designed to extend the binary SVMs by applying an ordinal pairwise partitioning (OPP) strategy. Our model can efficiently and effectively handle multiple ordinal classes. To validate OMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of bond rating. We compared the results of our model with those of conventional MSVM approaches and other AI techniques including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANNs. The results showed that our proposed model improves the performance of classification in comparison to other typical multi-class classification techniques and uses fewer computational resources.

Global optimization of feature weights and the number of neighbors that combine in a case-based reasoning system

: Case-based reasoning (CBR) often shows significant promise for improving the effectiveness of complex and unstructured decision-making. Consequently, it has been applied to various problem-solving areas including manufacturing, finance and marketing. However, the design of appropriate case indexing and retrieval mechanisms to improve the performance of CBR is still a challenging issue. Most previous studies on improving the effectiveness of CBR have focused on the similarity function aspect or optimization of case features and their weights. However, according to some of the prior research, finding the optimal k parameter for the k-nearest neighbor is also crucial for improving the performance of the CBR system. Nonetheless, there have been few attempts to optimize the number of neighbors, especially using artificial intelligence techniques. In this study, we introduce a genetic algorithm to optimize the number of neighbors that combine, as well as the weight of each feature. The new model is applied to the real-world case of a major telecommunication company in Korea in order to build a prediction model for customer profitability level. Experimental results show that our genetic-algorithm-optimized CBR approach outperforms other artificial intelligence techniques for this multi-class classification problem.

Maintaining case-based reasoning systems using a genetic algorithms approach

Abstract The success of a case-based reasoning (CBR) system largely depends on an effective maintenance of its case-base. This study proposes a genetic algorithms (GAs) approach to the maintenance of CBR systems. This approach automatically determines the representation of cases and indexes relevant attributes to grasp the rapidly changing environment around the system. In this study, the proposed model is applied to stock market analysis. Experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms conventional CBR systems.

Hybrid genetic algorithms and case-based reasoning systems for customer classification

: Because of its convenience and strength in complex problem solving, case-based reasoning (CBR) has been widely used in various areas. One of these areas is customer classification, which classifies customers into either purchasing or non-purchasing groups. Nonetheless, compared to other machine learning techniques, CBR has been criticized because of its low prediction accuracy. Generally, in order to obtain successful results from CBR, effective retrieval of useful prior cases for the given problem is essential. However, designing a good matching and retrieval mechanism for CBR systems is still a controversial research issue. Most previous studies have tried to optimize the weights of the features or the selection process of appropriate instances. But these approaches have been performed independently until now. Simultaneous optimization of these components may lead to better performance than naive models. In particular, there have been few attempts to simultaneously optimize the weights of the features and the selection of instances for CBR. Here we suggest a simultaneous optimization model of these components using a genetic algorithm. To validate the usefulness of our approach, we apply it to two real-world cases for customer classification. Experimental results show that simultaneously optimized CBR may improve the classification accuracy and outperform various optimized models of CBR as well as other classification models including logistic regression, multiple discriminant analysis, artificial neural networks and support vector machines.