L. Alan Winters

Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far

This paper assesses the current state of evidence on the impact of trade policy reform on poverty in developing countries. There is little empirical evidence addressing this question directly, but a lot of related evidence on specific aspects. We summarize this evidence using an analytic framework addressing four key areas: economic growth and stability; households and markets; wages and employment and government revenue. Twelve key questions are identified and empirical studies and results are discussed. We argue that there is no simple generalizable conclusion about the relationship between trade liberalization and poverty, and the picture is much less negative than is often suggested. In the long run and on average, trade liberalization is likely to be strongly poverty alleviating, and there is no convincing evidence that it will generally increase overall poverty or vulnerability. But there is evidence that the poor may be less well placed in the short run to protect themselves against adverse effects and take advantage of favorable opportunities.

Regional integration and development

The growth of regional trading blocks is now a major feature of international relations. This book examines regionalism from the viewpoint of developing countries, and provides a comprehensive account of existing economic theory, and empirical results. In a thorough analysis of the politics, and dynamics of regionalism, the book considers the relationship between regionalism, and multilateralism, and explores the economic advantages of non-discriminatory trade liberalization, which the authors argue should be exploited to the maximum extent. Designed as a practical guide for policymakers whose countries are considering membership in a trade block, this book will also be of interest to scholars, and students of international trade.

Opening Up International Trade in Eastern Europe

Trade with Eastern Europe Carl B. Hamilton and L Alan Winters Previous economic policy in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe sought to restrict international trade with market economies. Hence, liberalization and reform should now lead to a huge increase in such trade. This will have a major impact both on the reforming economies and on their new trade partners. First, we develop an empirical model of trade flows between existing market economies, and use this to forecast long-run trade flows as the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe are reabsorbed into the world economy. Second, we provide a more detailed analysis of one key sector, agricultural trade. We compare and contrast three regime changes: reform in the East, admission of the East to the EC CAP and worldwide success on agricultural liberalization in the GATT. Third, we adduce evidence of high quality human capital in Eastern Europe and argue that this will tend to confer a comparative advantage in quite sophisticated products. We conclude by stressing that since trade cannot be permanently and profoundly unbalanced, Western market economies can enjoy potential gains from trade only if they allow market access to emergent producers from the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe.

Regionalism versus Multilateralism

This paper examines the theoretical arguments and historical evidence about whether regionalism undermines the multilateral trading system. It first considers how to define multilateralism and then surveys over 60 recent contributions to the literature. It classifies theoretical models by four criteria: their assumed objective functions (national welfare versus pressure group interests); symmetric versus asymmetric models; one-off versus repeated games; and how they determine post-integration policies. It finds significant theoretical arguments and historical evidence on both sides of the debate. Very tentative conclusions include that regionalism may: help to liberalize very restrictive trade regimes; increase the vulnerability of less restrictive ones to break down; and be more likely to be harmful if governments are subject to sector-specific lobbying forces.

Separability and the Specification of Foreign Trade Functions

A universal assumption of models allocating a countrys imports among suppliers is that demand is separable over foreign and domestic sources. Nearly as common are the assumptions that import demands are homothetic and mutually separable. This paper explores the theoretical implications of these assumptions and then tests them, applying Deaton and Muellbauers `Almost Ideal Demand System? to U.K. data on manufactures covering 1952?1979. It uses Lagrange Multiplier tests. Both homogeneity and separability are overwhelmingly rejected. A model of import demand without these restrictions is introduced which, while not entirely satisfactory, suggests a direction for future research.

Quantifying International Migration: A Database of Bilateral Migrant Stocks

This paper introduces four versions of an international bilateral migration stock database for 226 by 226 countries and territories. The first three versions each consist of two matrices, the first containing migrants defined by country of birth, that is, the foreign-born population; the second, by nationality, that is, the foreign population. Wherever possible, the information is collected from the 2000 round of censuses, though older data are included where this information was unavailable. The first version of the matrices contains as much data as could be collated at the time of writing but also contains gaps. The later versions progressively use a variety of techniques to estimate the missing data. The final matrix, comprising only the foreign-born, attempts to reconcile all of the available information to provide the researcher with a single and complete matrix of international bilateral migrant stocks. The final section of the paper describes some of the patterns evident in the database. For example, immigration to the United States is dominated by Latin America, whereas Western European immigration draws heavily on Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Mediterranean region. Over one-third of world migration is from developing to industrial countries and about a quarter between developing countries. Intra-developed country and intra-FSU (former Soviet Union) flows each account for about 15 percent of the total. Over half of migration is between countries with linguistic ties. Africa accounts for 8 percent of Western Europes immigration and much less of that to other rich regions.

Poverty and the WTO: impacts of the Doha development agenda

This study reports on the findings from a major international research project investigating the poverty impacts of a potential Doha Development Agenda (DDA). It combines in a novel way the results from several strands of research. First, it draws on an intensive analysis of the DDA Framework Agreement, with particularly close attention paid to potential reforms in agriculture. The scenarios are built up using newly available tariff line data, and their implications for world markets are established using a global modeling framework. These world trade impacts form the basis for 12 country case studies of the national poverty impacts of these DDA scenarios. The focus countries are Bangladesh, Brazil (2 studies), Cameroon, China (2 studies), Indonesia, Mexico, Mozambique, the Philippines, the Russian Federation, and Zambia. Although the diversity of approaches taken in these studies limits the ability to draw broader conclusions, an additional study that provides a 15-country cross-section analysis is aimed at this objective. Finally, a global analysis provides estimates for the world as a whole.

The Political Economy of International Trade: Essays in Honour of Robert E. Baldwin.

Part 1: Theory of trade policy with imperfect information Avinash Dixit strategic trade policy and the new international economics a critical analysis, Gottfried Haverlay the role of services in production and international trade a theoretical framework, Ronald W.Jones and Henry Kierzkowski the coefficient of trade utilization - back to the Baldwin envelope, James E Anderson and J.Peter Neary. Part 2: Trade policy issues, reflections on uniform taxation, Arnold C.Harberger intellectual property rights and north-south trade, Judith C.Chin and Gene M.Grossman optimal tariff retaliation rules, David F. Burgess international trade in capital and capital goods, Rachel McCulloch and J.David Richardson. Part 3 Political economy of trade policy asymmetries in policy between exportables and import-competing goods, Anne D.Krueger trade policy, development, and the new political economy, Gerald M.Meier does 1992 come before or after 1990? on regional versus multilateral integration, Andre Sapir. Part 4: empirical studies of trade issues the structure and effects of tariff and non-tariff barriers in 1983, Edward Leamer a computational analysis of alternative safe guards of policy scenarios in international trade, Alan V. Deardorff and Robert M. Stern direct foreign investments and trade in east and southeast Asia, Seiji Naya.

Trade Liberalisation and Poverty: What are the Links?

The following sections are included:BACKGROUNDTHE HOUSEHOLDPRICE CHANGES AND TRANSMISSIONFACTOR MARKETS: WAGES. EMPLOYMENT AND PROFITSTAXES AND SPENDINGSHOCKS, RISKS AND VULNERABILITYECONOMIC GROWTH AND TECHNOLOGYSHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTTRADE LIBERALISATION AND POVERTY: A CHECKLISTACKNOWLEDGEMENTSREFERENCES

Liberalising Temporary Movement of Natural Persons: An Agenda for the Development Round

We discuss liberalising the temporary mobility of workers under Mode 4 of the GATS, particularly the movement of medium and low skilled service providers between developing and developed countries. Such mobility potentially offers huge returns: a flow equivalent to three per cent of developed countries? skilled and unskilled work forces would generate an estimated increase in world welfare of over US