L. de Arcangelis

Universality in solar flare and earthquake occurrence

Earthquakes and solar flares are phenomena involving huge and rapid releases of energy characterized by complex temporal occurrence. By analyzing available experimental catalogs, we show that the stochastic processes underlying these apparently different phenomena have universal properties. Namely, both problems exhibit the same distributions of sizes, interoccurrence times, and the same temporal clustering: We find after flare sequences with power law temporal correlations as the Omori law for seismic sequences. The observed universality suggests a common approach to the interpretation of both phenomena in terms of the same driving physical mechanism.

Exact Relations Between Damage Spreading and Thermodynamical Properties

We investigate the damage or Hamming distance between two configurations of Ising spins. We find an exact relation between the difference of the two possible types of damage and the spin-spin correlation function, which is generally valid. For the specific case of ferromagnetic interactions, heat bath dynamics and same sequence of random numbers, this relation involves only one type of damage. The susceptibility and the magnetization can also be expressed in terms of the damage. Numerical determination of the damage for the 2d Ising model is not only an efficient way to calculate correlation functions but also gives access to spin fluctuations visualized as clusters of damaged sites which have a fractal dimension d−β/ν at Tc and whose size distribution is also related to static exponents.

Influence of time and space correlations on earthquake magnitude

A crucial point in the debate on the feasibility of earthquake predictions is the dependence of an earthquake magnitude from past seismicity. Indeed, while clustering in time and space is widely accepted, much more questionable is the existence of magnitude correlations. The standard approach generally assumes that magnitudes are independent and therefore in principle unpredictable. Here we show the existence of clustering in magnitude: earthquakes occur with higher probability close in time, space, and magnitude to previous events. More precisely, the next earthquake tends to have a magnitude similar but smaller than the previous one. A dynamical scaling relation between magnitude, time, and space distances reproduces the complex pattern of magnitude, spatial, and temporal correlations observed in experimental seismic catalogs.

Self-organized criticality on small world networks

We study the BTW-height model of self-organized criticality on a square lattice with some long-range connections giving to the lattice the character of small world network. We find that as function of the fraction p of long-ranged bonds the power law of the avalanche size and lifetime distribution changes following a crossover scaling law with crossover exponents 2/3 and 1 for size and lifetime, respectively.

Fractal Shapes of Deterministic Cracks

By solving the full elastic equations on a two-dimensional lattice we grow cracks under various breaking conditions for a system that is submitted to external shear. We find that deterministic fracture patterns are in general branched and can be fractal. This effect is due to the competition between the direction of global stress and the local growth direction imposed by the lattice anisotropy. In scalar models this novel type of patterns cannot be observed.

Percolation Transition in Spin Glasses

The percolation properties of geometrical clusters related to spin fluctuations have been investigated for the 3d ± J Ising spin glass. The percolation transition is found at a temperature Tp 3.92, far from the spin glass critical temperature. The critical exponents are consistent with the random percolation exponents.

Role of Static Stress Diffusion in the Spatiotemporal Organization of Aftershocks

We investigate the spatial distribution of aftershocks, and we find that aftershock linear density exhibits a maximum that depends on the main shock magnitude, followed by a power law decay. The exponent controlling the asymptotic decay and the fractal dimensionality of epicenters clearly indicate triggering by static stress. The nonmonotonic behavior of the linear density and its dependence on the main shock magnitude can be interpreted in terms of diffusion of static stress. This is supported by the power law growth with exponent H approximately 0.5 of the average main-aftershock distance. Implementing static stress diffusion within a stochastic model for aftershock occurrence, we are able to reproduce aftershock linear density spatial decay, its dependence on the main shock magnitude, and its evolution in time.

Spatial organization of foreshocks as a tool to forecast large earthquakes

An increase in the number of smaller magnitude events, retrospectively named foreshocks, is often observed before large earthquakes. We show that the linear density probability of earthquakes occurring before and after small or intermediate mainshocks displays a symmetrical behavior, indicating that the size of the area fractured during the mainshock is encoded in the foreshock spatial organization. This observation can be used to discriminate spatial clustering due to foreshocks from the one induced by aftershocks and is implemented in an alarm-based model to forecast m > 6 earthquakes. A retrospective study of the last 19 years Southern California catalog shows that the daily occurrence probability presents isolated peaks closely located in time and space to the epicenters of five of the six m > 6 earthquakes. We find daily probabilities as high as 25% (in cells of size 0.04 × 0.04deg2), with significant probability gains with respect to standard models.

Percolation, gelation and dynamical behaviour in colloids

We review some results on the dynamics of gelation phenomena, obtained via a lattice model and via molecular dynamics using a DLVO potential. This study allowed us to make a connection between classical gelation and the phenomenology of colloidal systems, suggesting that gelation phenomena in attractive colloids at low temperature and low volume fraction can be described in terms of a two-line scenario.

Multiple-Time Scaling and Universal Behavior of the Earthquake Interevent Time Distribution

The interevent time distribution characterizes the temporal occurrence in seismic catalogs. Universal scaling properties of this distribution have been evidenced for entire catalogs and seismic sequences. Recently, these universal features have been questioned and some criticisms have been raised. We investigate the existence of universal scaling properties by analyzing a Californian catalog and by means of numerical simulations of an epidemic-type model. We show that the interevent time distribution exhibits a universal behavior over the entire temporal range if four characteristic times are taken into account. The above analysis allows us to identify the scaling form leading to universal behavior and explains the observed deviations. Furthermore, it provides a tool to identify the dependence on the mainshock magnitude of the c parameter that fixes the onset of the power law decay in the Omori law.