L. López

CAPE values and hailstorms on northwestern Spain

A study has been carried out in Leon (in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula) on atmospheric convection during summer periods, by analyzing the values of the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) around 07:00 UTC. The project analyzed the data provided by a network of voluntary observers, a hailpad network, and a meteorological station on a sample of 224 days. The CAPE values found were not high: they never reached 2000 J/kg, not even on hail days, i.e. on days with high convective activity. These values are much lower than the ones measured in convective situations in tropical regions, but they are within the usual values found in Europe. The same happens with the wet bulb potential temperature measured in Leon. The frequency distribution of the CAPE values shows a clear prevalence of very low or zero values. The group of days with the lowest CAPE value is that which included days with no storm. The mean value increases on storm days, and it is even higher for the days with recorded hailfalls. All these differences are significantly marked. Nevertheless, the differences across the years are not significant enough to be able to speak of an influence of the climatic change on the CAPE. The correlation of the CAPE with some of the variables previously used for hail forecasts was analyzed, and the correlation found was higher for the lifted index. The possible use of the CAPE as a thunderstorm and hailstorm forecasting method was considered. The results were encouraging, especially for hail forecasting, although the CAPE should not be used as the only variable, but combined with other parameters. Moreover, the relationships between the CAPE and the wet bulb potential temperature and between the CAPE and the physical parameters of the hailstones were also analyzed. A relationship was observed with the parameters of the hailstone size distribution. Nonetheless, these results are provisional, and they should be confirmed by analyzing a more representative sample. With a more detailed analysis of these and other relationships, the present forecast model used by the Laboratory for Atmospheric Physics at the University of Leon is expected to be greatly improved by including the CAPE in this model.

Noteworthy C-band radar parameters of storms on hail days in northwestern Spain

Abstract The data provided by a meteorological C-band radar have been employed in order to analyze the behavior of 224 storms that occurred on hail days in the provinces of Leon and Zamora, in the northwest of Spain. A network of more than 700 voluntary observers supplied the necessary information to distinguish hailstorms from storms that did not produce hail precipitation. The observers also reported the size of the hailstones found. Among the variables studied are the maximum reflectivity factors, the vertical developments, and the motion speed of the storm for hailstorms as well as for storms with no hail. The altitude at which the precipitation processes take place inside the storm cell and its average lifetime are the variables that determine the subsequent evolution of hailstorms and no-hail storms in the same day. Furthermore, these variables have been analyzed taking into account the type of storm: unicellular, multicellular or supercellular. Finally, a correlation between the characteristics of the storms and the size of the hailstones registered simultaneously on the ground has been searched for using the RHI detected on the radar exactly at the time of the precipitation.

The 14 July 2001 hailstorm in northeastern Spain: diagnosis of the meteorological situation

Hail producing thunderstorms developed over the Ebro valley (NE Spain) during the evening of 14 July 2001, affecting mainly the Lerida province. Hail stones as large as 3 cm in diameter produced damage on 2979 ha of fruit trees, vineyard and cornfields. The thunderstorms developed ahead of a cold front, which was moving from the Gulf of Biscay towards inland Spain. Meteosat images and radar data demonstrate that the storms formed over the central part of the Ebro valley and moved towards the east attaining their maximum development in Lerida province. A diagnosis, using data from ECMWF, shows that at surface there was a cyclonic circulation over northeastern Spain and at medium levels (500 hPa) a trough with cold air located towards northwestern Spain. The Q vector diagnosis demonstrates that the forcing for upward vertical motions was rather weak at both low and medium levels over the area where the thunderstorms developed. However, a significant frontogenesis contribution is identified over the Ebro valley. A more detailed handmade analysis shows that over the Ebro valley there was a thermal mesolow, which favoured the inland entrance of humid air from the Mediterranean. Frontogenesis and the humid air intrusion coexisted where remote-sensing observations indicated that the storms developed. A numerical study of the event using the MM5 model has been carried out. In a control experiment, the model is able to develop the thermal mesolow and reproduce, quite well, the convergence produced by the front as well as the timing of the event. In order to study the genesis and influence of the thermal mesolow, another simulation has been performed without consideration of solar radiation. The results indicate that the thermal mesolow does not develop, the convergence ahead of the cold front is significantly weakened and the front itself becomes increasingly progressive. As a result, thunderstorms do not develop and very little precipitation falls in the area.

The influence of melting on hailstone size distribution

AbstractThe physical properties of hailstones registered by a hailpad network (size distribution, mass,kinetic energy) are essential data for the establishment of a regional hail climatology. Nevertheless,when comparing these data to the same properties of hailstones inside the cloud, the melting processmust be taken into account. This paper presents a brief theoretical study of the changes effected onhailstone size distribution due to the melting process. The paper is based on previous studies dealingwith the melting of hailstones before they reach the ground. The aim is to analyze the influence ofthis melting process on hailstone size distribution. An initial melting simulation was carried out inorder to achieve this aim. Despite the common assumption that hailstone size distribution on theground is exponential, it was found that when the in-cloud size distribution is exponential, on theground, there are fewer small hailstones than what would be expected in an exponential distribution.The data registered by the hailpad network in Leo´n (Spain) for 1 year were used to estimate thesize of every hailstone before the melting process. The results show that the hailstone sizedistribution simulated inside the cloud resembles more closely an exponential distribution than thehailstones on the ground.The type of hailstone size distribution inside the cloud will be the starting point for calculating thehailstone size distribution on the ground. Several equations describing the melting processes are usedtocalculate anew probability densityfunction thatinitiallycorresponds to anexponential distributionthat undergoes a partial melting process. The result is a function that is not monotonously decreasinglike the exponential function, but rather a function that has a peak for a given size. This new functionfits better the data found than the exponential function and actually resembles the gamma function.D 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Weather features associated with aircraft icing conditions: a case study.

In the context of aviation weather hazards, the study of aircraft icing is very important because of several accidents attributed to it over recent decades. On February 1, 2012, an unusual meteorological situation caused severe icing of a C-212-200, an aircraft used during winter 2011-2012 to study winter cloud systems in the Guadarrama Mountains of the central Iberian Peninsula. Observations in this case were from a MP-3000A microwave radiometric profiler, which acquired atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles continuously every 2.5 minutes. A Cloud Aerosol and Precipitation Spectrometer (CAPS) was also used to study cloud hydrometeors. Finally, ice nuclei concentration was measured in an isothermal cloud chamber, with the goal of calculating concentrations in the study area. Synoptic and mesoscale meteorological conditions were analysed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It was demonstrated that topography influenced generation of a mesolow and gravity waves on the lee side of the orographic barrier, in the region where the aircraft experienced icing. Other factors such as moisture, wind direction, temperature, atmospheric stability, and wind shear were decisive in the appearance of icing. This study indicates that icing conditions may arise locally, even when the synoptic situation does not indicate any risk.

Numerical simulations of snowfall events: Sensitivity analysis of physical parameterizations

Accurate estimation of snowfall episodes several hours or even days in advance is essential to minimize risks to transport and other human activities. Every year, these episodes cause severe traffic problems on the northwestern Iberian Peninsula. In order to analyze the influence of different parameterization schemes, 15 snowfall days were analyzed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, defining three nested domains with resolutions of 27, 9, and 3 km. We implemented four microphysical parameterizations (WRF Single-Moment 6-class scheme, Goddard, Thompson, and Morrison) and two planetary boundary layer schemes (Yonsei University and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic), yielding eight distinct combinations. To validate model estimates, a network of 97 precipitation gauges was used, together with dichotomous data of snowfall presence/absence from snowplow requests to the emergency service of Spain and observatories of the Spanish Meteorological Agency. The results indicate that the most accurate setting of WRF for the study area was that using the Thompson microphysical parameterization and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic scheme, although the Thompson and Yonsei University combination had greater accuracy in determining the temporal distribution of precipitation over 1 day. Combining the eight deterministic members in an ensemble average improved results considerably. Further, the root mean square difference decreased markedly using a multiple linear regression as postprocessing. In addition, our method was able to provide mean ensemble precipitation and maximum expected precipitation,which can be very useful in the management of water resources. Finally, we developed an application that allows determination of the risk of snowfall above a certain threshold.

Monitoring a convective winter episode of the Iberian Peninsula using a multichannel microwave radiometer

On 4 March 2011, a heavy snowfall episode affected the central Iberian Peninsula. Under the TECOAGUA Project (aimed at the study of winter cloud masses that produce snow in the Guadarrama Mountains near Madrid), measurements using a ground-based multichannel microwave radiometer (MMWR) with vertical range 10 km recorded this episode of winter convection embedded within stratiform precipitation. In contrast to radiosondes, data retrieval from the MMWR has a clear advantage for identifying hazardous weather phenomena of short duration, such as winter convective episodes. From these continuous measurements, we analyzed the behavior of variables such as temperature, surface pressure, relative humidity, liquid water content, liquid water path, water vapor content, and integrated water vapor throughout the day. The continuous measurements also permitted construction of skew-T log-P profiles every 15 min during the convective episode, indicating vertical evolution of an event with an appearance similar to a “zipper” in which temperature and dew point temperature profiles are “closed” from the surface to 400 hPa and “reopen” at the end of the event. Finally, we selected six indices of stability most suitable for the study of winter convection, namely, the Showalter index, low-topped convection index, most unstable lifted index, most unstable convective available potential energy (MUCAPE), convective inhibition, and MUCAPE level of free convection. Each of these indices has been evaluated for their capacity to warn of meteorological conditions leading to a convective heavy snowfall event.

Snowfall in the Northwest Iberian Peninsula: Synoptic Circulation Patterns and Their Influence on Snow Day Trends

In recent decades, a decrease in snowfall attributed to the effects of global warming (among other causes) has become evident. However, it is reasonable to investigate meteorological causes for such decrease, by analyzing changes in synoptic scale patterns. On the Iberian Peninsula, the Castilla y León region in the northwest consists of a central plateau surrounded by mountain ranges. This creates snowfalls that are considered both an important water resource and a transportation risk. In this work, we develop a classification of synoptic situations that produced important snowfalls at observation stations in the major cities of Castilla y León from 1960 to 2011. We used principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster techniques to define four synoptic patterns conducive to snowfall in the region. Once we confirmed homogeneity of the series and serial correlation of the snowfallday records at the stations from 1960 to 2011, we carried out a Mann-Kendall test. The results show a negative trend at most stations, so there are a decreased number of snowfall days. Finally, variations in these meteorological variables were related to changes in the frequencies of snow events belonging to each synoptic pattern favorable for snowfall production at the observatory locations.

Analysis of a seeder‐feeder and freezing drizzle event

Surface icing can cause dramatic consequences on human activities. What is more, numerical weather prediction models are not very accurate in determining freezing drizzle, which creates uncertainty when forecasting this type of weather phenomenon. Therefore, it is essential to improve the forecast accuracy of these models for such phenomena to mitigate risks caused by unforeseen freezing drizzle events. On 5 February 2012, an episode of freezing drizzle took place in the Guadarrama Mountains, at the center of the Iberian Peninsula. This episode was preceded by weak snowfall. After the freezing drizzle, moderate snowfall was recorded in the study area. This event was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Through this analysis, we identified the meteorological factors at both synoptic scale and mesoscale that caused this episode. Wind perpendicular to an orographic barrier-generated updrafts and retention of moisture upwind, which caused orographic clouds to appear on the north side of the Guadarrama Mountains. Atmospheric stability prevented cloud formation at midlevels at the time of the freezing drizzle, which maintained cloud top temperatures warmer than −15°C during the episode. The entrance of moisture and instability at midlevels caused cloud top temperatures substantially colder than −15°C, which coincided with snow in the mountain range. Cloud top temperature and thickness control the efficiency of the glaciation process, thereby determining the type of precipitation at the surface. Freezing drizzle risk and in-cloud icing algorithms were developed with the aim of predicting similar events in the study area, which could mitigate impacts on human activities.

CLOUD TOP HEIGHT ESTIMATION FROM WRF MODEL: APPLICATION TO THE INFRARED CAMERA ONBOARD EUSO-BALLOON (CNES)

EUSO-BALLOON was launched on August 24, 2014 from Timmins (Canada) with a bispectral Infrared Camera onboard intended to measure the cloud coverage during the flight. Clouds at mid and upper levels of the Troposphere are crucial for a proper reconstruction of the main parameters of the Ultra-High Energy Cosmic Rays (UHECR).Therefore, determining Cloud Top Height (CTH) with high accuracy is crucial to estimate the effect of clouds on these measurements. With this aim, we have developed a method to extract CTH parameter via vertical profiles predicted by the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model. Moreover, we have evaluated model ability to represent temperature and humidity profiles in different climatic regions of the globe.