L. Panziera

Can Lagrangian Extrapolation of Radar Fields Be Used for Precipitation Nowcasting over Complex Alpine Orography

AbstractIn this study, a Lagrangian radar echo extrapolation scheme (MAPLE) was tested for use in very short-term forecasting of precipitation over a complex orographic region. The high-resolution forecasts from MAPLE for lead times of 5 min–5 h are evaluated against the radar observations for 20 summer rainfall events by employing a series of categorical, continuous, and neighborhood evaluation techniques. The verification results are then compared with those from Eulerian persistence and high-resolution numerical weather prediction model [the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling model (COSMO2)] forecasts. The forecasts from the MAPLE model clearly outperformed Eulerian persistence forecasts for all the lead times, and had better skill compared to COSMO2 up to lead time of 3 h on average. The results also showed that the predictability achieved from the MAPLE model depends on the spatial structure of the precipitation patterns. This study is a first implementation of the MAPLE model over a complex Alpine ...

Forecasting flash floods using data-based mechanistic models and NORA radar rainfall forecasts

Abstract Data-based mechanistic (DBM) models can offer a parsimonious representation of catchment dynamics. They have been shown to provide reliable accurate flood forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this work, the DBM methodology is applied to forecast flash floods in a small Alpine catchment. Compared to previous DBM modelling studies, the catchment response is rapid. The use of novel radar-derived ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts based on analogues to drive the DBM model allows the forecast horizon to be increased to a level useful for emergency response. The characterization of the predictive uncertainty in the resulting hydrological forecasts is discussed and a framework for its representation illustrated. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore Citation Smith, P.J., Panziera, L., and Beven, K.J., 2013. Forecasting flash floods using data-based mechanistic models and NORA radar rainfall forecasts. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1343–1357. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.842647